WeatherX Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Bullshit flags raised? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: It's 10:1 on the Pivotal. I don't think it is that ratio for most of the even. Highest ORH hills will be 10:1...at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Here ya go https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/retro_map.html Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Some clarity... ummm, back to uh oh ummm... Fog incoming down to vis < 1/8 mile. Ah, just stick with elevation. Cut back amounts. "Everything gonna be alright." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Stop using 10 to 1 maps I think there is a 'quick look' (oilfield well logging term, pre-computer analysis days when chart books were used to correct measurements) benefit to a 10:1 map. Divide by 10 and its is the QPF the model thinks falls as snow. If one doesn't want to look at 850 and 925 and surface temps or soundings every 3 hours for P-type prediction to determine P-type. Models that output at 6 hours, if there is heavy precip and a phase change sometime during the 6 hours, hard just to apply a 7:1 or whatever to the precip since it is hard to know when rain changed to sleet or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Awful model It’s a JAM. 2023 and not one piece of guidance can consistently narrow the goalposts inside at D2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Just a bit different than the gfs and NaM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 That isn't an awful run for me...not a HECS, but I would take it....like 6-12". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, WeatherX said: Bullshit flags raised? That booby low is highly unlikely . I’m not sure that’s ever happened before. I would be highly skeptical of this solution , just as I am of the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Boutros Boutros Ghali in SWCTATMFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Funny how you have globals like euro and gfs chasing convection with double boobs while meso’s consolidate it. Only the cmc global consolidates and frankly it’s been consistent…doesn’t mean it is correct though but you have to give consistency some weight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 No, that's an awful run. Stuff it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: That booby low is highly unlikely . I’m not sure that’s ever happened before. I would be highly skeptical of this solution , just as I am of the NAM I wouldn't say highly unlikely...phases are usually imperfect, and that evolution is a reflection of that. I could see it going either way... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 On to 18z. Not a lot of clarity on 12z today unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Consolidated low or bust in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wouldn't say highly unlikely...phases are usually imperfect, and that evolution is a reflection of that. I could see it going either way... Name a storm where that’s happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, TalcottWx said: No, that's an awful run. Stuff it ill take it here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Funny how you have globals like euro and gfs chasing convection with double boobs while meso’s consolidate it. Only the cmc global consolidates and frankly it’s been consistent…doesn’t mean it is correct though but you have to give consistency some weight. GEMS may have the right idea, but I think its too warm back here, like the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s a JAM. 2023 and not one piece of guidance can consistently narrow the goalposts inside at D2. This has literally become a pain in the ass.. Not enjoyable at all to forecast this one, I mean accumulating snow starts in 30 hours.. And we have several models showing a monster snowstorm for all of SNE and the GFS and EURO are worlds apart from the other models. Southern CT is a disaster of a forecast.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Everyone was lined up outside the Dealer's house just now, and he only had enough product to get Hubby and ineedsnow their fix before closing the door and shades. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 OMFG I thought I was looking at the 12z Euro but it was preset to the 0z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: he didn't look at the temps, its torched.. nothing for 2/3rds of the state.. northern third does well. Also southern CT gets dryslotted.. Freaking terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Okee dokee 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Name a storm where that’s happened 3/5/2001 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I think it's time to really turn to and focus on mesos. (Yes, I know euro is considered a meso models too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: ill take it here You posted the clown already, enough…we get it. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Funny how you have globals like euro and gfs chasing convection with double boobs while meso’s consolidate it. Only the cmc global consolidates and frankly it’s been consistent…doesn’t mean it is correct though but you have to give consistency some weight. Fear this may end up a strung out mess that just benefits the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, WeatherX said: Okee dokee It comes down to how quickly they consolidate, which is usually on the slower end of the spectrum....so I would hedge against the NAM and towards the EURO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That booby low is highly unlikely . I’m not sure that’s ever happened before. I would be highly skeptical of this solution , just as I am of the NAM Ya that looks absolutely silly. I don’t know how it still gives me like 8-9” on that clown map,?… so it’ll probably be more like 4”. Sadly are we any closer to any type of consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: No, that's an awful run. Stuff it I didn't think it looked bad for back our way but regardless I don't believe it's going to work out like that anyway. I'm not buying the double low thing. We've seen that before and it rarely happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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