ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: At least mid level temps don’t look to cook interior elevations like tolland Or Orh on this one , like they have much of year Or even 925mb like in the 12/16 event. I really like to look at 925mb...esp in late season events...that was a big failure in a lot of forecasts in the Feb 24, 2010 interior storm (just before the retrostorm that dumped rain) and in the March 2013 firehose storm. 2013 was more egregious because 925 temps were like -5C and everyone was forecasting mostly rain or non-accumulating snow. 2010 was a little trickier, but that one had like -1C 925 temps over the interior and ORH hills got crushed with like 1-2 feet when most outlets were forecasting 2-4 inches. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Does someone have a side by side of 0z and 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think it's fine here. I don't agree. I guess rain to snow for many. The BL starts out very warm inside of 495 and for many areas south of the Pike. May take a while to dynamically cool to paste. Would rather be in the hills for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I wouldn't take 10:1 to heart. At the end.. Take that one to Heart! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 23 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Looks like a lot of rain. Lolol. Taunting...lol They mentioned it was going to be mostly rain just over West Hartford. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The p-type maps seem to mirror 925mb temps on WxBell. Large area of 0C that then crashes SE. You will need to be in the meat of it, because otherwise it's 33-34F snow I think. We had trouble getting to 32 at like -4C at 925 earlier this season, nevermind -1C. Sure granted we did not have a dynamic system like this modeled...but it looks marginal unless it goes to town outside high elevations. JMHO. There isn't a good cold drain either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I guess rain to snow for many. The BL starts out very warm inside of 495 and for many areas south of the Pike. May take a while to dynamically cool to paste. Would rather be in the hills for sure. Obviously hills are better, but that is at the very least a bonafide warning event here...I'm on the NH border nust outside of 495. Not to mention I still think this can capture a hair later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Obviously hills are better, but that is at the very least a bonafide warning event here. Not to mention I still think this can capture a hair later. Yeah I could see that there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man just stall that like 30 miles east and it's a different ballgame. You hush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Obviously hills are better, but that is at the very least a bonafide warning event here...I'm on the NH border nust outside of 495. Not to mention I still think this can capture a hair later. Oh I didn't realize you were in Methuen now. Yeah... better up your way. For many we need a bit more cold around. It's a little too borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: You hush You still croak. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Another weak storm looks likely, this trends same as Saturday’s storm While you are quite the troll, you are pretty smart about the science, so why would you make a seemingly dumb statement? Have we had even 1 storm in this sort of pattern all winter? No. Have we had a storm with enough blocking that we see multiple models doing capture/loop/stall? No. This is something different. If you are going to continue to decide to troll, the committee requests that you be a smart troll, not a dumb one. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 You guys are like alligators when he throws a chicken carcass into the swamp lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: I guess rain to snow for many. The BL starts out very warm inside of 495 and for many areas south of the Pike. May take a while to dynamically cool to paste. Would rather be in the hills for sure. Happy with this trend in general... As modeled big hit for eastern / southeastern NY, WOR areas on northeast into northeast Mass. Gets dicey for central CT, but room to work with that setup northward into northeastern Mass. Still room for a more amped look that could trend this to more of an Adirondack' s event. Hoping for some stability in future runs of the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: You hush You have plenty of wiggle room. This looks to have a large qpf field atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: merrimack river valley effect in full force there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: While you are quite the troll, you are pretty smart about the science, so why would you make a seemingly dumb statement? Have we had even 1 storm in this sort of pattern all winter? No. Have we had a storm with enough blocking that we see multiple models doing capture/loop/stall? No. This is something different. If you are going to continue to decide to troll, the committee requests that be a smart troll, not a dumb one. He wound have a better chance trolling for a Rainer than a whiff , but he already showed his hand . Still lots of time thou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: You guys are like alligators when he throws a chicken carcass into the swamp lol. Most are trying to flush him out i think, You know, Emptying the gun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, FXWX said: Happy with this trend in general... As modeled big hit for eastern / southeastern NY, WOR areas on northeast into northeast Mass. Gets dicey for central CT, but room to work with that setup northward into northeastern Mass. Still room for a more amped look that could trend this to more of an Adirondack' s event. Hoping for some stability in future runs of the Euro... Too bad this isn't a week later for disaster enthusiasts... There's a relatively rare Perigean spring tide scheduled for the Equinox this year, and having a system like a blend of the Euro/ICON/KR models ... would pretty much redistrict the entire shore civility from Cape May NJ all the way up to PWM Maine... (whether said civility wants it or not ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You will need to be in the meat of it, because otherwise it's 33-34F snow I think. We had trouble getting to 32 at like -4C at 925 earlier this season, nevermind -1C. Sure granted we did not have a dynamic system like this modeled...but it looks marginal unless it goes to town outside high elevations. JMHO. There isn't a good cold drain either. I view this as "if you are struggling at 33-34F light/mod snow, then it wasn't ever going to be great anyway"....maybe 6-7" paster becomes 2-3" slop storm, but the lowest 1,000 feet probably isn't going to be the difference between an 18" storm and a 4" storm. Maybe it's a 12-14" deck collapser instead of 18-20". This is assuming that the mid-levels down to 925mb are a snow profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I view this as "if you are struggling at 33-34F light/mod snow, then it wasn't ever going to be great anyway"....maybe 6-7" paster becomes 2-3" slop storm, but the lowest 1,000 feet probably isn't going to be the difference between an 18" storm and a 4" storm. Maybe it's a 12-14" deck collapser instead of 18-20". This is assuming that the mid-levels down to 925mb are a snow profile. And it goes to town. That's what I mean anyways. I don't have an issue at -1C 925 at night if we are nuking the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Ray would like the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I view this as "if you are struggling at 33-34F light/mod snow, then it wasn't ever going to be great anyway"....maybe 6-7" paster becomes 2-3" slop storm, but the lowest 1,000 feet probably isn't going to be the difference between an 18" storm and a 4" storm. Maybe it's a 12-14" deck collapser instead of 18-20". This is assuming that the mid-levels down to 925mb are a snow profile. Yes. Totally on the "toss the clown map" train.....but people saying this is mainly rain inland are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Ray would like the EPS. My bet is it captures later.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: My bet is it captures later.... A bit yeah. Stalls in a great spot for many. Definitely 128 and beyond crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Or even 925mb like in the 12/16 event. I really like to look at 925mb...esp in late season events...that was a big failure in a lot of forecasts in the Feb 24, 2010 interior storm (just before the retrostorm that dumped rain) and in the March 2013 firehose storm. 2013 was more egregious because 925 temps were like -5C and everyone was forecasting mostly rain or non-accumulating snow. 2010 was a little trickier, but that one had like -1C 925 temps over the interior and ORH hills got crushed with like 1-2 feet when most outlets were forecasting 2-4 inches. I would include the 2018 March Nor'easter ( the first of the bunch ...) that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Lot of members are getting tugged NW on the 12z EPS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 If this solution verified verbatim...and I didn't get at least 8" of snow, then I would pull my pants down and let Ryan spank me with his degree. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: And it goes to town. That's what I mean anyways. I don't have an issue at -1C 925 at night if we are nuking the DGZ. Yeah my view is that those BL temps won't take away a truly great storm...they might take away a run-of-the-mill warning event though. But truly great storms nuke 2" per hour rates for hours on end....run-of-the-mill warning events often do not...or if they do, it's not for very long. So if we're sitting here putting 0.05" in the bucket every hour cursing at 34F white rain, my view is that we weren't missing out on anything epic to begin with. Yeah, I'd rather have 6-7" of paste than 2" of slop, but I won't lose a ton of sleep over it. At this point in a shitty season, I'm kind of on the big dog or bust train....give me 1.5-2 inches of QPF in 12 hours and I'd take my chances with -1C 925 temps. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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