dendrite Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Frickin models. I'm glad I don't read this thread too much. For example NAM had me at 1.67" last run but .33" this run. You all have to deal with R/S lines but up here it is how much does the goods come north and how much does the Whites shadow me. Me looking for a C NH crush job on the models this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Me looking for a C NH crush job on the models this morning. 7h vertical velocity on the Nam looks mighty good your way, unless I'm evaluating it incorrectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its going to be better than 10:1 in some spots. Yeah highest terrain maybe. If we start seeing more NAM-esque soundings, then higher ratios become more likely. But we have a lot of solutions that are pretty warm in the BL still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southshorewx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, George001 said: Enjoy your blizzard, it’s coming. Kiss of death. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah highest terrain maybe. If we start seeing more NAM-esque soundings, then higher ratios become more likely. But we have a lot of solutions that are pretty warm in the BL still. NAM, is greater than 10:1 for even some lower terrain. Other than that, it would be higher terrain. Lose ghst fu%ing s stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Hi 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: 7h vertical velocity on the Nam looks mighty good your way, unless I'm evaluating it incorrectly. An arm of fronto will probably swing through for a bit. It’s a close call up here for something bigger so I’m keeping a casual eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Anyone have a link to Walter Drag? I'd love to hear what he's thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, dendrite said: An arm of fronto will probably swing through for a bit. It’s a close call up here for something bigger so I’m keeping a casual eye on it. I liked that look even up to pf when i saw it this am.. That elevated area west of New England in New York around alb gets deform crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Hi Share your thoughts and dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, MarkO said: Anyone have a link to Walter Drag? I'd love to hear what he's thinking He usually posts in NYC forum but it’s not in there ., so not sure where he posted it. Walt is the guru at sniffing these big boys out. If someone has link, please post. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 For ratios, outside of the banding they're likely going to be relatively low (probably around 7:1). Going to have to really keep in mind there is likely going to be subsidence involved. Also have to watch for pockets of dry air being ingested in, which if that happens into the DGZ is going to kill too. Then of course you have the boundary-layer issues and of course...wind. Under the heaviest banding I think ratios upwards of 13:1 to 15:1 are plausible. But this will be better assessed after bufkit is available. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Share your thoughts and dreams My dream is the storm disappears. I have no thoughts, I just looked at my first model run NAM 30 min ago. WTF... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: For ratios, outside of the banding they're likely going to be relatively low (probably around 7:1). Going to have to really keep in mind there is likely going to be subsidence involved. Also have to watch for pockets of dry air being ingested in, which if that happens into the DGZ is going to kill too. Then of course you have the boundary-layer issues and of course...wind. Under the heaviest banding I think ratios upwards of 13:1 to 15:1 are plausible. But this will be better assessed after bufkit is available. Will you be moving the bigger amounts a tick south on your first call clown map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Come on gfs, chuck em 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Will you be moving the bigger amounts a tick south on your first call clown map? Not so sure...maybe hold steady or bring down a bit in the valley. Biggest concern now is subsidence but pinning down where that occurs...good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I'm supposed to be in Northborough for 630am on Tuesday and Beverly for 1030am. Me thinks those are not happening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm supposed to be in Northborough for 630am on Tuesday and Beverly for 1030am. Me thinks those are not happening. According to several media outlets there, you’ll have no problem in the rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 ICON with the IVT and then slings the sfc low back to BVY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Good morning day shift! I read the whole thread since signing off past 3AM DST. NAM is one heckuva slam for most of us. Reggie right now is by himself pending the rest of 12z. NAM is bad and Reggie (since 2015) is worse. So we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 51 minutes ago, MuddyWx said: nam'd Sign me up. My best hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Forget the snow maps...time to focus on these products 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Forget the snow maps...time to focus on these products That is a great product….but those are only useful if the model is accurate. I wouldn’t trust the 51 hour NAM at this point. They’ll be better to use tomorrow when hopefully we have more model consensus. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The banding in this storm is going to be hilarious, with wild haves and have nots in the areas riding the line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Gfs fuji again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 LOL the sensible differences in the solutions is amazing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Gfs loops and buries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Gfs is a crusher! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 My initial thought is this this is going to go apeshit is a short span of time from heavy rain to heavy snow as the low bombs out and occludes. For the eastern folks the wide right hook is what you want to see. GFS is doing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Gfs probably gives BOS 18+ verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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