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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Basically it's probably 6" paste just west of low track and 12-18 or so in the ORH hills. Assuming more realistic solution and not 10:1 maps.

Yeah I'd think closer to like 8-10" here rather than the 15 on the 10 to 1 maps...and then 12-18 for ORH county to outside 495, though probably 20 burgers in the elevations above 800-1000 feet. They'd clean up big time....Winter Hill scorpion bowls.

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2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s also extremely unlikely and doesn’t fit the pattern, another clown solution from the long range Euro.  A storm forming way off shore and whiffing like Saturdays is far more likely

how does that not fit the pattern? Tip went on a whole diatribe about how this kind of exotic solution can arise. you have a massive lobe of vorticity over S Canada coinciding with a PNA phase change. it's not a ridiculous concept that a large storm can result

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-8708800.thumb.png.de0e86165d978b1c54fd780bafd8242d.png

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6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Holy smokes, break out the sandbags in eastern ma. That’s literally the last thing we need.

it’s definitely a lot of rain to start for many. Very marginal.

To start, inevitable. We'd need that low track to shift about 100-125 miles SE to be able to flip over to some wet snow. 

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Keep in mind, wherever you are putting 0.75-1.00 in the bucket on 6 hourly QPF, it's going to be rapidly accumulating snow wherever the profile supports snow. The marginal airmass will matter more when it's lighter. During that CCB that's dropping 2" of QPF over ORH in 12 hours, you aren't going to have many thermal issues....but in the parts where you get like 0.04 per hour stuff, that's when the relatively milder BL and elevation comes more into play.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is the rare time I would embrace a grid shutemdown.

 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is the rare time I would embrace a grid shutemdown.

clear some trees for your solar.....That run looks like a few of those tasty ensembles from this morning. 

Starts precipitating in WSNE Monday morning, finally stops in ESNE Wednesday evening....Sheesh

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My take is that the odds of a storm in this time period are increasing.  The question will be where and if the low gets cut off and loops like some of the Big Boys have in the past have.   This looks like it would occur in the general area SE of New England.    A change of location of 100 miles of this will determine the sensible weather in any given area.  So it makes no sense to dissect each run for specifics of rain/snow lines this far out.  

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