yoda Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 415 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 CTZ002-MAZ010-011-122115- /O.EXA.KBOX.WS.A.0005.230314T0000Z-230315T1200Z/ Hartford CT-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA- Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Amherst, Northampton, and Springfield 415 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations ranging from 2 to 4 inches in the valley to 6 to 12 inches over the hills. * WHERE...In Connecticut, Hartford County. In Massachusetts, Eastern Hampshire and Eastern Hampden Counties. * WHEN...From Monday evening through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Heavy wet snow combined with gusty winds could bring down tree branches and result in power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change to snow Monday night across the higher elevations, and during Tuesday in the valley. Snow will continue into Tuesday evening before tapering off overnight. Snowfall and impacts will likely vary greatly with elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, yoda said: BOS issued watches.. nothing for Boston proper of SE MA It's coming....that's how they roll. They never go from 0-100. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Way too bearish IMO. Big storm incoming. Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's coming....that's how they roll. They never go from 0-100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 NAM makes landfall at Islip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: NAM makes landfall at Islip Its clueless...have Brett a blizzard last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its clueless...have Brett a blizzard last run. Hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Henry's Weather said: Hopefully I mean, I'd oblige, but....lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: NAM makes landfall at Islip Parks there for a bit then slides east to the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The NAM is like a re enactment of 3/5/01. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Id take like a 15-20 mile tic east from what the Euro OP has. As of now, would be torture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Id take like a 15-20 mile tic east from what the Euro OP has. As of now, would be torture Works for me....would bring the deformation right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean, I'd oblige, but....lol 3k is lolz too where do I sign for delivery? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Not exactly a bastion of consistency...but wish it were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Looks like the NAM brought more to the table from the N stream this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 System doesn't get to leak east is much due to the more potent/aggressive N stream insert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 06z NAM has a weird looking evolution where the southern stream wanders off towards Bermuda then shows up south of Nova Scotia while the nothern stream deepens very gradually and they hold hands but don't phase. Would be much less windy but snowfall implications are not that different, puts NYC in the game. Probably not how this beast actually works, might be a failed attempt to deepen the system from earlier NAM track. Think the other 06z guidance will hold serve. (06z ICON looks similar to 00z except slightly more intense, no visits to Long Island there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: System doesn't get to leak east is much due to the more potent/aggressive N stream insert. 18z EURO was more like this, but 00z trended towards more leakage. Hope the NAM is right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Roger Smith said: 06z NAM has a weird looking evolution where the southern stream wanders off towards Bermuda then shows up south of Nova Scotia while the nothern stream deepens very gradually and they hold hands but don't phase. Would be much less windy but snowfall implications are not that different, puts NYC in the game. Probably not how this beast actually works, might be a failed attempt to deepen the system from earlier NAM track. Think the other 06z guidance will hold serve. Don't know that I agree with everything that you said, but I do agree other guidance will hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Yea, NAM is just about all N stream...everything else allows the S Vort it pull things ese more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 BOX sipping ICON kool-aid? My p/c A slight chance of snow before 11am, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 43. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Monday Night Rain likely before 10pm, then snow between 10pm and 1am, then rain after 1am. Low around 35. East wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Tuesday Rain before 7am, then snow. High near 36. Windy, with a north wind 18 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 33. Windy, with a north wind 23 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches poss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 BTW, NAM is also colder...not only more QPF. It's the only robust NARCAN map...NARCAN gives me like 7" on EURO and 24" on NAM. I would be fine letting the s vort go camp on a beach in Bermuda, as long as N stream doesn't go too nuts...but getting late in game for n stream to pull this far enough west to hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 ICON and RGEM don't look much different (have only seen RGEM to 48h but looks to be in early explosive deepening south of RI heading for ACK, ICON was a bit deeper than 00z on almost the same track). Feel like NAM just didn't have the southern stream available for phase because of the odd shape of the 500 mb flow southeast of the upper low, so the northern stream has to do it all alone. If intense solutions continue today, I think it's time to hoist the B flags and get the public ready for a disruptive snowstorm, and in some places windstorm. Not that it's going to impact my life, but I too have been waiting for an intense storm to hit the charts on your side of the continent. We've had enough here. My snow pack is a measured 22" and my estimated season total is 90". Probably 3-4 feet in some higher alpine areas around here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 It's going to be very interesting to see where banding sets up during this. If the low is truly over the Cape for a time, I have a hard time believing the valley does as poorly as some of the clowns show. Seems many times at this lead the heaviest precip is too consolidated near the low center. Modeling doesn't always do well with where the bands end up. And then, there's the latest NAM.... I don't believe that yet either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Oh boy oh boy oh boy 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceberg Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The NAM is like a re enactment of 3/5/01. I don't remember that one, have to look it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Scooter gets his HWW. Gusts 70+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 GFS looks pretty much identical 0z to 6z. That inverted trough really screws us south of the Pike for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Nothing else has that so safe to ignore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 6 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Nauseating trends since 18z started. Off to bed soon.. fantastic way to end 22/23 winter. Verbatim that’s 0.0” for all of southern CT. I’m not using 10:1 Kuchera is the way to go in this set up for the snow cut off.. Yo you sure? We take um up 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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