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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
415 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

CTZ002-MAZ010-011-122115-
/O.EXA.KBOX.WS.A.0005.230314T0000Z-230315T1200Z/
Hartford CT-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Amherst,
Northampton, and Springfield
415 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations ranging
  from 2 to 4 inches in the valley to 6 to 12 inches over the
  hills.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Hartford County. In Massachusetts,
  Eastern Hampshire and Eastern Hampden Counties.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Heavy wet snow combined
  with gusty winds could bring down tree branches and result in
  power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change to snow Monday night
  across the higher elevations, and during Tuesday in the valley.
  Snow will continue into Tuesday evening before tapering off
  overnight. Snowfall and impacts will likely vary greatly with
  elevation.
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06z NAM has a weird looking evolution where the southern stream wanders off towards Bermuda then shows up south of Nova Scotia while the nothern stream deepens very gradually and they hold hands but don't phase. Would be much less windy but snowfall implications are not that different, puts NYC in the game. 

Probably not how this beast actually works, might be a failed attempt to deepen the system from earlier NAM track. Think the other 06z guidance will hold serve. 

(06z ICON looks similar to 00z except slightly more intense, no visits to Long Island there)

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1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

06z NAM has a weird looking evolution where the southern stream wanders off towards Bermuda then shows up south of Nova Scotia while the nothern stream deepens very gradually and they hold hands but don't phase. Would be much less windy but snowfall implications are not that different, puts NYC in the game. 

Probably not how this beast actually works, might be a failed attempt to deepen the system from earlier NAM track. Think the other 06z guidance will hold serve. 

Don't know that I agree with everything that you said, but I do agree other guidance will hold serve.

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BOX sipping ICON kool-aid?  My p/c

A slight chance of snow before 11am, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 43. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Monday Night
Rain likely before 10pm, then snow between 10pm and 1am, then rain after 1am. Low around 35. East wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Tuesday
Rain before 7am, then snow. High near 36. Windy, with a north wind 18 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Tuesday Night
Snow. Low around 33. Windy, with a north wind 23 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches poss
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BTW, NAM is also colder...not only more QPF. It's the only robust NARCAN map...NARCAN gives me like 7" on EURO and 24" on NAM. I would be fine letting the s vort go camp on a beach in Bermuda, as long as N stream doesn't go too nuts...but getting late in game for n stream to pull this far enough west to hurt.

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ICON  and RGEM don't look much different (have only seen RGEM to 48h but looks to be in early explosive deepening south of RI heading for ACK, ICON was a bit deeper than 00z on almost the same track). 

Feel like NAM just didn't have the southern stream available for phase because of the odd shape of the 500 mb flow southeast of the upper low, so the northern stream has to do it all alone. 

If intense solutions continue today, I think it's time to hoist the B flags and get the public ready for a disruptive snowstorm, and in some places windstorm. Not that it's going to impact my life, but I too have been waiting for an intense storm to hit the charts on your side of the continent. We've had enough here. My snow pack is a measured 22" and my estimated season total is 90". Probably 3-4 feet in some higher alpine areas around here.

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It's going to be very interesting to see where banding sets up during this.  If the low is truly over the Cape for a time, I have a hard time believing the valley does as poorly as some of the clowns show. Seems many times at this lead the heaviest precip is too consolidated near the low center. Modeling doesn't always do well with where the bands end up. And then, there's the latest NAM....:lol: I don't believe that yet either 

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6 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Nauseating trends since 18z started. Off to bed soon.. fantastic way to end 22/23 winter. Verbatim that’s 0.0” for all of southern CT. I’m not using 10:1 Kuchera is the way to go in this set up for the snow cut off.

Yo you sure? We take um up

index (63).png

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