dryslot Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The Nam is tucked in BOS harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Right over elbow and up to PVC and not from East of 70w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Not much dynamics with it. Just meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The soundings and 2M temps off the NAM are definitely not what I’d expect for a low near ISP. What a pasting around here. I can’t recall an evolution like that IMBY. This run will wake NWS BOX up. The 925s collapsed after deepening offshore switched winds away from that INVT circ. That's a condo collapser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Big QPF cut off North of Lowell , not shocked given both short waves were south .8 ASH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: This run will wake NWS BOX up. The 925s collapsed after deepening offshore switched winds away from that INVT circ. That's a condo collapser Idk. It’s a really bizarre evolution on the NAM. Not sure what to make of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Big QPF cut off North of Lowell , not shocked given both short waves were south .8 ASH I'm not worried about that right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3k nam flips and accumulates most all of ct by 9z Tuesday . System is further south on that as well . Just one of the many options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Relatively meh dynamically out east after the Ronnie Coleman IVT for the Catskills and WNE. I had more hope for up here given the track just north of PVC, but no dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 NAM just caught on to the basic storm dynamics -- it will beef up precip in subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not much dynamics with it. Just meh. Yeah that was kind of weak sauce. I think there needed to be more southern stream. But who knows. It just didn’t want to pop that low to another level like most other guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Relatively meh dynamically out east after the Ronnie Coleman IVT for the Catskills and WNE. I had more hope for up here given the track just north of PVC, but no dice. Right track, Wrong results, That should've delivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: Right track, Wrong results, That should've delivered. Its the NAM....I'd prefer it be a favorable track and let it resolve dynamics later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is kind of lame. Much worse than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that was kind of weak sauce. I think there needed to be more southern stream. But who knows. It just didn’t want to pop that low to another level like most other guidance. Is that southern stream just losing a little more latitude every model run on its track W-E As it traverses the south or is it me I figured it was a good thing N stream went south with it compared to if it didn’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, 78Blizzard said: Much worse than 18z. Yeah, big step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 It’s crazy that this system is still far enough away for multiple model runs worth of trends to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, powderfreak said: It’s crazy that this system is still far enough away for multiple model runs worth of trends to go. We have not even established a trend, Every model run has had a different outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: It’s crazy that this system is still far enough away for multiple model runs worth of trends to go. I know it feels like we've been tracking this thing for more than a week... oh wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: We have not even established a trend, Every model run has had a different outcome. Such a tenuous set-up with the interaction of the northern and southern stream. High risk and reward. Large variability. This can’t be all that bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Big dawg events have never taken this long to clear through the morass and detect in a consensus … using primitive models. Starting to wonder if the whole Met world is looking at this from the wrong direction … Maybe the models are physically over doing what’s really destined to be a pedestrian reality … Heh, like it takes a biblical pattern to get a commoner solution during a god lost winter. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The one positive on the NAM is that it didn't take the 925 0°C line into southern NH as did the 18z Euro. In fact, the line didn't make it past the CT, RI, SE mass border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Such a tenuous set-up with the interaction of the northern and southern stream. High risk and reward. Large variability. That's what i've been saying these complex systems take time to resolve differences. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Big dawg events have never taken this long to clear through the morass and detect in a consensus … using primitive models. Starting to wonder if the whole Met world is looking at this from the wrong direction … Maybe the models are physically over doing what’s really destined ti be a pedestrian reality … This obviously won't happen, but it would be funny if the system chased that convection out to the east and slipped away with minimal impacts. The meltdowns would be epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Reggie looks good for SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 25 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Idk. It’s a really bizarre evolution on the NAM. Not sure what to make of it. How about the 3 K with 14 inches in 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's what i've been saying these complex systems take time to resolve differences. Yes and Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Reggie looks good for SNE At least it cut way down those insane QPF amounts from 18z. Still not great for BOS metro, but an improvement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Reggie looks good for SNE It was tucked a bit and more of a inland elevation deal / later flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: This obviously won't happen, but it would be funny if the system chased that convection out to the east and slipped away with minimal impacts. The meltdowns would be epic. Ha … might be worth admission for the dark humor of it. I’ll tell ya … if the bigger profiled ordeal verifies … it’s a bit of a performance stain on all of them - too late … it’s the day after tomorrow in 2023 and we’re getting 200 mile pressure jumps involving a system whose power should be easily located by these tooling standards by now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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