Henry's Weather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 With the boob phenomenon, this gets complex, but still can clearly see consensus on a capture and loop near the cape 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: I see no reason to change this at the moment. Lol To be safe, I would go -6" to 24". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: To be safe, I would go -6" to 24". This winter has been bad, I know, but how do you get negative six inches? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, NotSureWeather said: This winter has been bad, I know, but how do you get negative six inches? Another area steals it from you. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Also going to get a death band as the fronto prob goes nuts while it’s moving NNW Yeah hope to maximize Phil then haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looks good. I count about 18 that look like straight garbage that never make it inside 75 miles of elbow ( After trying but failing to hook in close enough from Flemish cap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Another area steals it from you. Ah yes, that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: This winter has been bad, I know, but how do you get negative six inches? If it can be done, it will be in SWCT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Not super similar but some of the variables are…Dec ‘92 had a strong ULL diving down through VA and this one comes in further north but due to the eastern southern stream low, we end up with an easterly flow for a time that is somewhat similar. Dec ‘92 had a potent high pressure up north too which while not very cold, it really increased the pressure gradient and helped cause the huge winds (90+ mph gusts on the exposed shore) Airmass was pretty marginal in Dec ‘92 as well I'm thinking that of all the big dogs synoptically, Feb 2013 might be an excellent match: (antecendent cold nonwithstanding) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: I'm thinking that of all the big dogs synoptically, Feb 2013 might be an excellent match: (antecendent cold nonwithstanding) Yeah there are some similarities aloft. But Feb 2013 had a monster high to the north and this one doesn’t. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there are some similarities aloft. But Feb 2013 had a monster high to the north and this one doesn’t. No doubt. We certainly won't make as much use for QPF as Feb 2013 did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The temps are annoying in general with this system, which ups the ante. Naturally you have to favor the elevations. It’ll snow anywhere the lift is strong enough, but the moisture in this system would hit HECS easily with a colder/fresher air mass. I’ve gotten stuck on imagining looking at these runs with widespread temps in the 20s, not low to mid-30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there are some similarities aloft. But Feb 2013 had a monster high to the north and this one doesn’t. Just curious, what do you think the ceiling is in this area? I know the floor is goose egg, but seems like most guidance is kind of all or nothing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: No doubt. We certainly won't make as much use for QPF as Feb 2013 did I loved that storm. Was in Woods Hole for that one and ended up with 14 or 15 if I recall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The temps are annoying in general with this system, which ups the ante. Naturally you have to favor the elevations. It’ll snow anywhere the lift is strong enough, but the moisture in this system would hit HECS easily with a colder/fresher air mass. I’ve gotten stuck on imagining looking at these runs with widespread temps in the 20s, not low to mid-30s. Ya I wrote that in my blog and it really sucks, but it fits the tenor of the season to expect less for SNE. JDJ expects 0.0” as of now for our area. Hopefully the next few runs changes our minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Patrick-02540 said: I loved that storm. Was in Woods Hole for that one and ended up with 14 or 15 if I recall. It was my first sentient 2-footer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Just curious, what do you think the ceiling is in this area? I know the floor is goose egg, but seems like most guidance is kind of all or nothing here I think 8-12 is probably realistic ceiling. JMHO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Sure it could be more, but I’d say that is more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, FXWX said: I think the issuance of specific snow amount maps at this time is unwarranted and does more harm than good. The numbers on the these maps are going to change over the next 2 days, and when they do, all folks are going to remember is how much snow was predicted for their backyard and now it has changed. It leads folks mocking forecasters; they don't care about the reason, all they know is the number change? I am ok with forecasters issuing FIRST CALL outlooks with appropriate caveats. At this stage of the game, I think it is completely acceptable to use general probability terms on maps. Here some of the terms I'm using... Ex. Moderate to High probability of heavy snow of at least 10 inches; Moderate to high probability of seeing less than 10 inches; Moderate probability of seeing excessive snow totals more than 15 inches;. Of course the numbers I'm using are subjective. I fully understand the desire for numbers and the now expected call for media folks to post them. But we posting numbers long before we have reasonable confidence in those numbers verifying. A storm like this is a prime example of why many times you need to play it close to the vest. Again, first call maps like 40/70's with his detailed discussion and caveats are fine, but I guarantee there maps being posted now that will undergo major revisions over the next 2 days. Just some ramblings of an old forecaster; lol Agree not sure where the need (?expectation) of precise numbers this far out. Should be perfectly acceptable to put a region-wide alert for potential of heavy snow + winds, stay tuned for detailed TBD. Unnecessarily setting themselves up for criticism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think 8-12 is probably realistic ceiling. JMHO. If you guys get in the meat of the CCB I think that’s a reasonable ceiling for TAN to south coast given the air mass. 8-12” of 6-7:1 paste in heavy precip rates with wind would be a helluva event regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya I wrote that in my blog and it really sucks, but it fits the tenor of the season to expect less for SNE. JDJ expects 0.0” as of now for our area. Hopefully the next few runs changes our minds. Tenor of the season. Perpetual potential, pathetic production. Let’s hope we reverse things in a big way here. Just want to be in the game to the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya I wrote that in my blog and it really sucks, but it fits the tenor of the season to expect less for SNE. JDJ expects 0.0” as of now for our area. Hopefully the next few runs changes our minds. You’re gonna see-no snow? I don’t believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You’re gonna see-no snow? I don’t believe it. Just setting ourselves up for the eventual failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Just setting ourselves up for the eventual failure. There could be a sharp gradient from Merritt to 84, and 84 on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: There could be a sharp gradient from Merritt to 84, and 84 on north. No doubt . And us 3 are pretty far south. I’m about half way in between Merrit and and 84, 8 miles away from each. 4 seasons is right on Merritt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Not sure what this difference means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Just setting ourselves up for the eventual failure. Gonna be 35 and rain here while Litchfield county gets 2 feet. That’s my guess at least. Certainly has happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Changes between 18z and 0z are thus far not insignificant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 Will be 5 years ago Monday I had a 18 spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Painful model runs honestly. Tired of the back and forth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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