SouthCoastMA Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Looks like it's snow here by late Tuesday evening on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Doesn’t it cool at hour 69 ..plus the downslope valley is not the place to be on this Yes once you see those 925s collapse in the CCB, the profile gets easily cold enough for snow at least away from the water. I do think places in CT that are getting a lot of WCB precip prior to the CCB need to look at the soundings very carefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Now post 68-72 Looks like your good by 67/68. You would see big damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 19 minutes ago, weathafella said: My oldest child was 15…lol. Mine was 14. We have seen this play before. Once it flips it’s straight parachutes Quickly becomes heavy. The Euro 3 hr snow panels have some 9 inch spots. That stuff piles up so quick. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Looks like your good by 67/68 I know. He posted the one hour that WeHA was 0 at 925. And probably dim sun falling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: You think we get crushed up here? Yeah looks good up your way! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I know. He posted the one hour that WeHA was 0 at 925. And probably dim sun falling actually that's during the meat of it. I do think there's some longitude assist in play here south of the Pike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: actually that's during the meat of it. I do think there's some longitude assist in play here south of the Pike. So you’re going with the idea of more in the valley than the NE hills. Just making sure all is clear . Yesterday you had most raining. This morning you were pumped and things were not tucked. Tonight rains again . I think 12+ is a good bet NE and NW of HFD with 4-8 valley . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: actually that's during the meat of it. I do think there's some longitude assist in play here south of the Pike. Finallly a storm of yore up and in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes once you see those 925s collapse in the CCB, the profile gets easily cold enough for snow at least away from the water. I do think places in CT that are getting a lot of WCB precip prior to the CCB need to look at the soundings very carefully. They quickly become isothermal . You can breakdown precip types. You can see how Ryan’s HFD has BL issues 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: They quickly become iIsothermal. You can breakdown precip types. You can how Ryan’s HFD has BL issues 6-10" when it's 34 or 35F in Mansfield as this model shows would be something. Again.... clown maps and clown ptype algorithms can lead you to dark places. The inverted trough trend today should be a big caution flag for CT/RI outside of the NW Hills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 11 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Eh? Lol, I think I will do better up on the mountain here in Plainville. Then Kev will in Tolland with that latest map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 EPS looks good. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: EPS looks good. Favors the right boob? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If we can make the east low more dominant and quicker. could the dual low thing be the models struggling with the transfer (Miller B redevelopment)? I think the models might consolidate and merge the 2 lows into one big low as we get closer to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Lot of seaward members on EPS taking a wide turn. But they do start consolidating closer to the cape on the next couple frames. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The mean looks to be close to 42/69. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Almost dead nuts on 12z . Just about locked now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 That sling back on guidance should give some pretty dam strong winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: That sling back on guidance should give some pretty dam strong winds. Sling back? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That sling back on guidance should give some pretty dam strong winds. Also going to get a death band as the fronto prob goes nuts while it’s moving NNW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Favors the right boob? Haven't seen it yet. But I would assume so....although that max qpf and snowfall area near us and westward continues to show up in guidance. It was still there on the GEFS, despite the awful OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 6 hours ago, Chris12WX said: 0-18” feels like a good forecast here. I see no reason to change this at the moment. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 35 minutes ago, dryslot said: That looks to be after hr72 especially SE areas. Yes. For me it was 69 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 15 minutes ago, CT Rain said: 6-10" when it's 34 or 35F in Mansfield as this model shows would be something. Again.... clown maps and clown ptype algorithms can lead you to dark places. The inverted trough trend today should be a big caution flag for CT/RI outside of the NW Hills. March 18 I was 34 the whole time. Thumper the dumper Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 16 minutes ago, CT Rain said: 6-10" when it's 34 or 35F in Mansfield as this model shows would be something. Again.... clown maps and clown ptype algorithms can lead you to dark places. The inverted trough trend today should be a big caution flag for CT/RI outside of the NW Hills. We’ve seen various runs today that have given eastern ma and even parts of the upper cape more snow than a lot of parts of CT. Not sure what to make of that, but I’d think it has something to do with the CCB going nuts closer to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: March 18 I was 34 the whole time. Thumper the dumper Ryan We hope for a crushing but caution flags the size of Texas hoisted over mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I think we're at a stage where models are going to diverge and fall apart and once we get to 12z tomorrow we start to see a consensus towards a bit hit. And that's not just me being a weenie. It will start with the NAM and we'll see the typical NAM jokes and then guidance starts to trickle. Not uncommon in these bigger ceiling type events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack66 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 GYX just put a very good breakdown on Twitter. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Haven't seen it yet. But I would assume so....although that max qpf and snowfall area near us and westward continues to show up in guidance. It was still there on the GEFS, despite the awful OP If we can trend it a bit to favor the right nipple then more of our qpf is frozen while getting more folks out east in the game. A win/win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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