Greg Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: But that first low at 12z helped back the flow a bit and keep 925 from torching too much. It doesn’t matter with a track like this…there’s enough forcing and dynamics to overcome it. Just don’t let it get too far east. The main track of the primary is always most important in winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: These girls with far away eyes. 34 spot in the Berks More like 28 spot but who's counting? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, weathafella said: Fun to look at though… No doubt. Even Wizzy enjoys a good clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 11” for IJD this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The North Atlantic SST map seems to show that the Gulf stream has moved a bit south of where it was during most of the winter, to around 38N, and that may be another small factor in favor of a snowier outcome, I would not want to see 55-60F water just a few miles away from ACK, instead it seems to be low 40s and even at the benchmark it's just 49-50F. This would also argue for rapid intensification as the low moves from 37N to 39N across the core of the Gulf stream and the last opportunity to interact with warm ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Kuchie might be the better clown to put up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Let’s not , I don’t like betting on a hook and ladder coming in from Georgia bank . We are gonna have to sacrifice S shore and Boston imo You in ASH? You’d be better off with a low near the elbow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 It’s hook and latter to describe the evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You in ASH? You’d be better off with a low near the elbow. I won’t be In ash unless stars allign perfectly , not planning on ash anywhere from S monads to N Orh to Berks ..I’m pretty sure I know where I want this one . I see a increasing chance that a far wide right low doesn’t make it that close to elbow either and ends up well East . I would take a low at elbow thou I just don’t like seeing ensemble members MSLP’s 250 miles SE of ack back Nw and stopping 75 miles ESE of CHH For a short glancing CCB even if that’s what it takes to snow in Boston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I won’t be In ash unless stars allign perfectly anywhere from S monads to N Orh to Berks ..I’m pretty sure I know where I want this one Would you stay at the Electric Blue Monday night? I know a few good restaurants/ breweries we can hit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Those clowns are silly. 18+ ain’t happening here. Why? That’s a lot of precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Pretty nasty here on the euro. I’ll take it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think once 925 goes cold there’s no mixing in heavy rates which is depicted. Are those purples mix or heavier snow? That looks to be after hr72 especially SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty nasty here on the euro. I’ll take it. 90-100? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Beware the clown maps. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Why? That’s a lot of precip We lose probably an inch to rain so 1.9 at 7:1 it’s more like 14”, not 18+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 40 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: What the f am I looking at I think the issuance of specific snow amount maps at this time is unwarranted and does more harm than good. The numbers on the these maps are going to change over the next 2 days, and when they do, all folks are going to remember is how much snow was predicted for their backyard and now it has changed. It leads folks mocking forecasters; they don't care about the reason, all they know is the number change? I am ok with forecasters issuing FIRST CALL outlooks with appropriate caveats. At this stage of the game, I think it is completely acceptable to use general probability terms on maps. Here some of the terms I'm using... Ex. Moderate to High probability of heavy snow of at least 10 inches; Moderate to high probability of seeing less than 10 inches; Moderate probability of seeing excessive snow totals more than 15 inches;. Of course the numbers I'm using are subjective. I fully understand the desire for numbers and the now expected call for media folks to post them. But we posting numbers long before we have reasonable confidence in those numbers verifying. A storm like this is a prime example of why many times you need to play it close to the vest. Again, first call maps like 40/70's with his detailed discussion and caveats are fine, but I guarantee there maps being posted now that will undergo major revisions over the next 2 days. Just some ramblings of an old forecaster; lol 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Beware the clown maps. Nah let them have fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, FXWX said: I think the issuance of specific snow amount maps at this time is unwarranted and does more harm than good. The numbers on the these maps are going to change over the next 2 days, and when they do, all folks are going to remember is how much snow was predicted for their backyard and now it has changed. It leads folks mocking forecasters; they don't care about the reason, all they know is the number change? I am ok with forecasters issuing FIRST CALL outlooks with appropriate caveats. At this stage of the game, I think it is completely acceptable to use general probability terms on maps. Here some of the terms I'm using... Ex. Moderate to High probability of heavy snow of at least 10 inches; Moderate to high probability of seeing less than 10 inches; Moderate probability of seeing excessive snow totals more than 15 inches;. Of course the numbers I'm using are subjective. I fully understand the desire for numbers and the now expected call for media folks to post them. But we posting numbers long before we have reasonable confidence in those numbers verifying. A storm like this is a prime example of why many times you need to play it close to the vest. Again, first call maps like 40/70's with his detailed discussion and caveats are fine, but I guarantee there maps being posted now that will undergo major revisions over the next 2 days. Just some ramblings of an old forecaster; lol This makes a lot of sense, agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Beware the clown maps. Up here should be good 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nah let them have fun It's funny that the clown map brigade is convinced 1-2 feet for most is a good bet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Beware the clown maps. Death Valley FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just saying verbatim, Its only one run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Beware the clown maps. Def would not want to be in a valley . Clowns show it clearly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Def would not want to be in a valley . Clowns show it clearly I'm glad to be higher up for this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Def would not want to be in a valley . Clowns show it clearly Eh? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, CT Rain said: Eh? Now post 68-72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 If we can make the east low more dominant and quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Eh? You think we get crushed up here? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Probably 250 pages by the time it kicks off. Hope it's worth the hype. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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