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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wasn’t 12z much more elongated on euro compared to other guidance and 18z trended elongated except for euro and rgem?

it had a more potent sfc low going into CT and then redevelopment well east of the cape that backed in. This kept the prolonged inv trough look. But yeah, obviously it wasn’t as far east as the gfs. 
image.png

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Just now, dendrite said:

it had a potent sfc low going into CT and then redevelopment well east of the cape that backed in. This kept the prolonged inv trough look. But yeah, obviously it wasn’t as far east as the gfs. 
image.png

Ya that garbage appendage 300 miles SE of cape cod is missing on 18z (much further West and more dominant )  so the CCB seems like it’s more consolidated around the coastal and less around the weaker area of LP near IVT

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya that garbage appendage 300 miles SE of cape cod is missing on 18z (much further West and more dominant )  so the CCB seems like it’s more consolidated around the coastal and less around the weaker area of LP near IVT

But that first low at 12z helped back the flow a bit and keep 925 from torching too much. It doesn’t matter with a track like this…there’s enough forcing and dynamics to overcome it. Just don’t let it get too far east. 

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Just now, Henry's Weather said:

@ORH_wxman How similar is this evolution to Dec 1992?

Not super similar but some of the variables are…Dec ‘92 had a strong ULL diving down through VA and this one comes in further north but due to the eastern southern stream low, we end up with an easterly flow for a time that is somewhat similar. Dec ‘92 had a potent high pressure up north too which while not very cold, it really increased the pressure gradient and helped cause the huge winds (90+ mph gusts on the exposed shore) 

Airmass was pretty marginal in Dec ‘92 as well  

 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

But that first low at 12z helped back the flow a bit and keep 925 from torching too much. It doesn’t matter with a track like this…there’s enough forcing and dynamics to overcome it. Just don’t let it get too far east. 

I don’t plan on being In Nashua for this , but either way I fear the further East shift and later start to CCB / glancing blow 

But that is also why I asked to see 925’s at hour 69/72 etc which I will check out on COD at 755

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