weathafella Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: It's still amazing me how the CMC and RGEM are pretty much exact with their snowfall maps I don’t think they produce snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMontpelierWhiteout Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: "Objective" is different than being responsible for damage-control. The NWS can't forecast a snowy solution for borderline areas because they are responsible for public works' mobilization, not because they are strictly following guidance. Strict adherence to guidance = "objective", only yields a snowier forecast than the one they put out. They are more conservative not for the purpose of fundamental accuracy, but for risk management at this distance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 We need the 18z euro to save us from local TV snow maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMontpelierWhiteout Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, EMontpelierWhiteout said: Wouldn’t they err on the side of more snow so crews could be ready? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: We need the 18z euro to save us from local TV snow maps. Let’s show a better S vort and a consolidated F’N system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Turning into a typical spring storm, moisture laden with the El's getting the goods and AEMATT getting mostly rain with some meow paws to finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said: It is safer to forecast more and see less then the other way around . The public tends to rejoice when less snow falls , and complains when more does and people have unplanned delays . But at a 3 day lead time with huge differences in models it would probably be better to put out 2 maps , “if snowier models prevail , “if weaker milder storm models prevail “ I think one map is almost impossible to represent forecast / models with this low confidence and huge discrepancies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Possibly your best post since we hung out in FMH so many years ago. i went wild for this setup even a week ago, before models were latching onto the 2nd storm. maybe you missed them all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The map only goes through 8 pm Tuesday. ? How does that relate to what I said? I knew that based on my comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMontpelierWhiteout Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: It is safer to forecast more and see less than the other way around . The public tends to rejoice when less snow falls , and complains when more does and people have unplanned delays . But at a 3 day lead time with huge differences in models it would probably be better to put out 2 maps , “if snowier models prevail , “if weaker milder storm models prevail “ They attempt to do that with their 9/10 and 1/10 maps, I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 I really can’t take any one model run seriously but trying to see any broader trends with ensembles or “camps” amongst them related to system elongating or consolidating and general track shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: ? How does that relate to what I said? I knew that based on my comment. You wrote, “So they must be ignoring the GFS scenario.” A lot of the snow for ORH, not to mention Boston, falls Tuesday night into Wednesday. The map doesn’t reflect storm totals for the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: We need the 18z euro to save us from local TV snow maps. This is when we really need Harvey Leonard around. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Many are getting out over their ski's re: The BOX snowfall map? As mentioned, the Agency is where the public turns for Official information and responsible for numerous other Agencies, i.e. Public Works, EMA including the safety of the General Public. It's a First Call Map and way out of range. I'm probably one of few who think it's prudent ATT. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Angry weenies over a very preliminary snow map. You hate to see it… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 59 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: lol Lol. It DOES look like the snowfall maps from the 80s and 90s where Litchfield and western Mass always jackpoted while I changed to rain after and inch or two of slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 It's almost fun being on the outside of this one. I'm not stressed at all. Will I get rain, or rain. What temperature will the rain be? It doesn't engender much of an emotional reaction. I'm not hanging my hat on one solution, I'm not staying up for the next model. Hang on a second, I mispoke, did I say almost fun, I meant painfully unrewarding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: You wrote, “So they must be ignoring the GFS scenario.” A lot of the snow for ORH, not to mention Boston, falls Tuesday night into Wednesday. The map doesn’t reflect storm totals for the whole region. My point about ignoring the GFS is for the period up to 8pm Tuesday, which, as I said, showed anywhere from 7-19" for ORH. The map obviously didn't reflect that scenario, or gave it short shrift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 This is one of those scenarios that can bust for both Eastern Mass and Western Mass in either direction. Personally, it has a little bit of a flavor of April 6-7, 1982, in the back of my mind. Not to a tee but something along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t think they produce snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Angry weenies over a very preliminary snow map. You hate to see it… It’s plain irresponsible for a public/ govt agency . Places they have no snow may be facing extended power outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: That’s not produced by environment Canada 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 25 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: It's still amazing me how the CMC and RGEM are pretty much exact with their snowfall maps Coincidentally they give you the most snow. Amazing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 18z EURO looks like a crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, ineedsnow said: 18z EURO looks like a crushing Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 SE 925 screaming initially. Raining in all of CT/RI/almost all of MA 9z Tuesday (5AM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 No dog in the fight really changes the emotional attachment. If you had money on presenting a forecast, I think many would start very conservative most probably wouldn't even comment or forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gracias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: My point about ignoring the GFS is for the period up to 8pm Tuesday, which, as I said, showed anywhere from 7-19" for ORH. The map obviously didn't reflect that scenario, or gave it short shrift. Sorry, I thought you were thinking of the whole storm. My apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now