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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Reggie is annihilation over interior SNE. 

you never got back to me ( haha ...)    see I've been wondering what the domain space of the Reginald Grimsley model is.

I was thinking the whole time that this event was/is not having it inside it's observation region and that it may lurch into the game once that happens.  I'm wondering if that what's going on here? 

I'm also wondering if that may account for why the model hasn't been so good in recent years, because we've been plagued by this fast flow shit that's ripping waves from the GOA to NS in like three days flat. That's not really helping any meso model -

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Man this winter sucked

You can't even trust the models 3 days out.

Awful

It just goes to show that even with the technological improvements and super computers over the years, we still have a long way to go in weather modeling.  I'm surprised that NCEP or whoever is in charge didn't request recon flights for this system, given the uncertain nature and the likelihood of coastal flooding and wind damage.

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It’s a trend , that the S vort is gonna swing a low a few hundred miles SE of ACK now and the N stream is gonna do a lot of the lifting for W sne and C sne 
 

12z had some Very nice looking more consolidated looks with a crushing CCB  but they also  seemed to be on W end of the ensembles 
 

Not sure how much further the S stream low can trend (Almost S of Nova Scotia) On 18z Gfs op and a several ensemble members of Euro/ before this elongated look doesn’t produce pretty snow maps (Many of those would keep CCB brief or just  off shore ) ,  but aside from 12z this has been a trend for 24-30 hrs with 60 to go . 

I was impressed with the low position the N stream had such impressive rates out west then moving East as 5H went under us . 
 

 

 

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I'm shaking in me boots.

onday
A slight chance of snow before 10am, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 43. East wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Monday Night
Rain likely before 9pm, then snow between 9pm and midnight, then rain after midnight. Low around 35. Northeast wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Tuesday
Snow. High near 36. Windy, with a northeast wind 18 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
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