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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ironically, Saturday's system would have made a good infusion to the 50/50 vortex, but it's getting crushed so far ESE it never helps out. We're left with the naked trailing ridge behind it with less 50/50 now pressing the heights down in Quebec.

In addition, the better Pacific with the big rockies ridge is actually making the northern stream dig a little too much for my liking on some of these solutions. We want it to dig, but not as early as it's doing, but it's responding to the big ridge building out west.

All of that in combination is making this more of a needle-threader than you'd typically want to see. There's still pretty high potential in this system, but I don't see a lot of margin for error that we sometimes see in other big dogs.

That's basically how I feel. It's a needle threader here..maybe more of a rain to snow deal perhaps. I'd feel a lot better Berks into NNE. I know it's early, but my preliminary feelings anyways.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

That's basically how I feel. It's a needle threader here..maybe more of a rain to snow deal perhaps. I'd feel a lot better Berks into NNE. I know it's early, but my preliminary feelings anyways.

Yeah we should prob stress that in a blocky flow, model guidance could easily change the look enough to matter a lot for sensible wx.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ironically, Saturday's system would have made a good infusion to the 50/50 vortex, but it's getting crushed so far ESE it never helps out. We're left with the naked trailing ridge behind it with less 50/50 now pressing the heights down in Quebec.

In addition, the better Pacific with the big rockies ridge is actually making the northern stream dig a little too much for my liking on some of these solutions. We want it to dig, but not as early as it's doing, but it's responding to the big ridge building out west.

All of that in combination is making this more of a needle-threader than you'd typically want to see. There's still pretty high potential in this system, but I don't see a lot of margin for error that we sometimes see in other big dogs.

I see what you’re saying on confluence. Ironically we’ll need the pna to not spike now, a complete reversal of seasonal demands. Interesting. 

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The -NAO and general blocking is fading while retrograding west...That was always part of the deal.. But it needs(ed) to time right with the other moving parts in total hemisphere.  These storms seem all powerful when they're under way, but they have narrow bandwidths with leading parametrics...etc.

Anyway... too much on Saturday and too little next week ... nuances that need to be overcome. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I see what you’re saying on confluence. Ironically we’ll need the pna to not spike now, a complete reversal of seasonal demands. Interesting. 

It just zooms on out of here, I mentioned that yesterday. Probably the most frustrating part of this season. 

Anyways, not trying to pee in anyone's cheerios. Just noting.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It just zooms on out of here, I mentioned that yesterday. Probably the most frustrating part of this season. 

Anyways, not trying to pee in anyone's cheerios. Just noting.

The peepee is needed. Otherwise we’d be full steam ahead with snow goggles on. Models can show what they want but dissecting the smaller but important details is what we need you guys for. Thanks and hopefully you’re peeing won’t turn into a shit streak shit show as we get closer. 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The peepee is needed. Otherwise we’d be full steam ahead with snow goggles on. Models can show what they want but dissecting the smaller but important details is what we need you guys for. Thanks and hopefully you’re peeing won’t turn into a shit streak shit show as we get closer. 

Honestly, that is what might be needed. :lol:   

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12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Agreed. Eastern NYS could be in for a big one. I’d lean rain for most east of Worcester, up to SE NH.

 

Things can change obviously 

Oh definitely, And I may change my mind tomorrow lol . For Se mass I think it is much harder / more thread the needle then outside 495 belt 

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23 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Why does pivotal look drastically different? It's the UKMET so who cares either way but 976 near the BM vs this looks entirely like a different run/model. Is the UKMET-G different from pivotals UKMET?

sfcwind_mslp.us_ne.thumb.png.bd8de808c4b27b73cc0421bbe0d42d46.png

Looks like resolution differences? Pivotal looks a lot more higher res and is probably picking up the 976mb gridpoint that meteocentre isn't.

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20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Agreed. Eastern NYS could be in for a big one. I’d lean rain for most east of Worcester, up to SE NH.

 

Things can change obviously 

 

That's pretty much been the case all winter

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The stakes are high given how awful the season has been and how high the potential is next week…but with mounting red flags of a needle threader. 

Might be a case where you and I see more snow Saturday than we do early next week.....this one does have the feeling of up and in right now.

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