The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think your area looks pretty good but not as safe as Litchfield county or ORH county. As long as the low doesn’t sneak up to like GON area, I think you’ll be fine. 

We dealt with these phantom lows showing up on modeling last Jan right up to the day before. Hopefully just a modeling error

[jaf]

11 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said:

Euro shows nice mild rainstorm here. 

I think that’s what our area should expect from this storm.  Toss the GFS.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think your area looks pretty good but not as safe as Litchfield county or ORH county. As long as the low doesn’t sneak up to like GON area, I think you’ll be fine. 

GGEM was fantastic 

[FXWX]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Road Trip to @FXWX 's house!

I have whole house generator so not worried about power issues...

[Snowcrazed71]

20 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Euro is very warm at the surface. Well above 32f for CT for entire storm. 

I'd be very surprised if there's actually one storm going into Connecticut and another one off the coast. I think it's just not consolidating the two. My gut is it will and the temp issues won't be as much of an issue in Connecticut. But I guess we'll have to wait until we get closer lol. Either way, we will have a change from rain to snow and we should have a fairly decent amount anyway as it's a long duration storm. Even if we just get 6 in. It's still a lot of fun to track.

[TheSnowman]

“A blend of the GFS & EURO is good.”  
 

OOOHHHHHHH, you mean 3”, and 3”?  
 

OK.  So 3”.  Or my 1” on the Canadian or None on German.  

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Starting to get more bullish here in CT. The tucked trend has slowed or even reversed. Not much cold air to work with but may be just enough given the very well timed bombing/occlusion to bring the heavy stuff here.

Lol I swear everytime you post something positive for a dumper the opposite immediately shows up on modeling lol. But you are right it looks good for a majority of Ct

[ma blizzard]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think your area looks pretty good but not as safe as Litchfield county or ORH county. As long as the low doesn’t sneak up to like GON area, I think you’ll be fine. 

How you feeling about metro west? Getting a little concerned seeing 925 so warm on the EURO/UK, especially to start. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

GGEM was fantastic 

GGEM was great, so was GFS and NAM. But the other two(Euro and drunken uncle) are off in another direction. So No continuity as of this moment. 

[mattm4242]

I love living on Cape Ann, but damn it’s not the best for these late season blockbusters lol.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I agree, lol... When I saw Wiz's map I told him to shift his max area to include high terrain areas of far western HFD cty, consider the extreme northern portion of NH cty (Wolcott area were 1000+ ft elevations are in play.  The northern parts of Wolcott often plays out like Litchfield cty).

Much appreciated. I can embarrassingly say I am horrible at paying closer attention to topography and elevations. 

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Euro, like other models just different each run. Models really struggling finding a consistent relationship between the two streams. Tough forecast. Here is 6z vs 12z, each run changes which stream is more dominant



.

The lack of low level barocilinic focus is really more to do with why we are observing run-to-run inconsistency with low placement. If the former were more focused, it would create height falls from upward vertical motion fields over top... focusing the models into a given area more consitently.  The 00z runs really showed more of this, with a "new" 500 mb center opening up around the outer/lower Cape region, while the N/stream 'lobe' was still in the process of sliding under LI.   These 12z runs seems to have lost that orderly relay comparing it to the 00z suite. 

Little more background on how it works:  The sfc to 800 mb layer needs to have an axis where along it there is some 10C variation in temperature/DP ... compressed to just 10's of mile either side.  Usually that "thermal compression" resides in the vicinity of Cape May NJ, to eastern LI ... out toward the Island S of Cape Cod.  

That is axis has a viscosity differential where amid the cold side, the air density/stability doesn't rise. The opposite is true amid the warm side. 

Why is that important?

As a S/W wind acceleration aloft begins to approaching a given region, it triggers air to start moving toward the axis of the jet max from underneath.  We refer to that as "restoring," or in flowing wind.  As this in flowing lighter less dense air encounters the denser air along the interface of the axis, it is force upward.. That upward motion lowers the surface pressure beneath.  If one is following this... they may already see that a more defined axis would turn the air skyward more proficiently.  If that forced rising air has higher DP content, that turns into buoyancy by "latent heat of condensation" ... clouds fanning out explosively on satellite..etc, "baroclinic leafing" behavior... etc.   This feeds back in lowering the pressure more...

This entire situation lacks that thermal compression wall/gradient along a very well defined axis... It's causing these physics to really fractal place the low out around where ever quantum mechanics happens to choose the 'chimney' of rising air.  The mid level jet mechanics are going to induce an upward vertical motion ... but that is missing some mass/buoyancy input from below due to said axis being rather amorphously defined in this particular case.

This winter ...now early spring ... it's just been excruciating getting cold in sufficient amounts and it come back to bite this ..really beautiful deep layer evolution right in the ass.  I'm just describing what is going on - I'm not saying this event wont' snow by the way. ha

 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol I swear everytime you post something positive for a dumper the opposite immediately shows up on modeling lol. But you are right it looks good for a majority of Ct

Ya that’s Funny how that works. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

So looks like I could get anywhere from nothing to 2 feet, based on 12z models.

 

solid range.

 

Im leaning heavily towards a majority rain event here, BTW

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol I swear everytime you post something positive for a dumper the opposite immediately shows up on modeling lol. But you are right it looks good for a majority of Ct

lol you're not wrong. I do think that even the "good" looking tracks are going to have issues here in the valley with a pretty torched BL. Going to be a needle threader. Feel better for W CT though as it looks like the congrats ALB scenario is less likely. 

[jaf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So looks like I could get anywhere from nothing to 2 feet, based on 12z models.

 

solid range.

 

Im leaning heavily towards a majority rain event here, BTW

agree

[Amped]

The wierd thing about this setup is that the solutions that have the southern stream more suppressed end up warmer, with a second northern stream low forming over long island and tracking further northwest, like the ICON.

You need a strong southern stream surface low in just the right spot to faceplant northern stream as it's trying to form.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, ma blizzard said:

How you feeling about metro west? Getting a little concerned seeing 925 so warm on the EURO/UK, especially to start. 

Metro west between 128 and 495 is probably the toughest area to forecast. I’d feel pretty good outside of 495…I think precip will flip to snow relatively quickly there but inside of 495 to 128 is a tough call. I’m not totally buying the dual low idea…it’s prob going to be one or the other…and that makes it hard to forecast because if a low in Westerly RI becomes dominant, then that will cut down on accumulations quite a bit in metrowest (won’t really affect further NW as much)….but if we’re already overlaying a cold conveyor from the east by Pre-dawn Tuesday, then metrowest would easily get annihilated. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

lol you're not wrong. I do think that even the "good" looking tracks are going to have issues here in the valley with a pretty torched BL. Going to be a needle threader. Feel better for W CT though as it looks like the congrats ALB scenario is less likely. 

Anyone in CRV from Hartford to Brattleboro should keep expectations in check.  As I said earlier, I wouldn’t be confident anywhere under 700’. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

The wierd thing about this setup is that the solutions that have the southern stream more suppressed end up warmer, with a second northern stream low forming over long island and tracking further northwest, like the ICON.

You need a strong southern stream surface low in just the right spot to faceplant northern stream as it's trying to form.

The longer you keep the inv trof look the more waa you’re advecting into the region…gotta start backing those winds sooner. 

[8611Blizz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Metro west between 128 and 495 is probably the toughest area to forecast. I’d feel pretty good outside of 495…I think precip will flip to snow relatively quickly there but inside of 495 to 128 is a tough call. I’m not totally buying the dual low idea…it’s prob going to be one or the other…and that makes it hard to forecast because if a low in Westerly RI becomes dominant, then that will cut down on accumulations quite a bit in metrowest (won’t really affect further NW as much)….but if we’re already overlaying a cold conveyor from the east by Pre-dawn Tuesday, then metrowest would easily get annihilated. 

That's been mentioned on several tv stations. They do say that inside 128 is mostly rain however.

[CT Rain]

Just now, dendrite said:

The longer you keep the inv trof look the more waa you’re advecting into the region…gotta start backing those winds sooner. 

Yeah I think the "dual low" thing isn't really worth tossing. It's just a reflection of surface pressure falls along the inverted trough prior to full phase/capture. 

So even if the low isn't as distinct in reality that E/SE flow ahead of the inverted trough will do some damage to the BL. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The lack of low level barocilinic focus is really more to do with why we are observing run-to-run inconsistency with low placement. If the former were more focused, it would create height falls from upward vertical motion fields over top... focusing the models into a given area more consitently.  The 00z runs really showed more of this, with a "new" 500 mb center opening up around the outer/lower Cape region, while the N/stream 'lobe' was still in the process of sliding under LI.   These 12z runs seems to have lost that orderly relay comparing it to the 00z suite. 

Little more background on how it works:  The sfc to 800 mb layer needs to have an axis where along it there is some 10C variation in temperature/DP ... compressed to just 10's of mile either side.  Usually that "thermal compression" resides in the vicinity of Cape May NJ, to eastern LI ... out toward the Island S of Cape Cod.  

That is axis has a viscosity differential where amid the cold side, the air density/stability doesn't rise. The opposite is true amid the warm side. 

Why is that important?

As a S/W wind acceleration aloft begins to approaching a given region, it triggers air to start moving toward the axis of the jet max from underneath.  We refer to that as "restoring," or in flowing wind.  As this in flowing lighter less dense air encounters the denser air along the interface of the axis, it is force upward.. That upward motion lowers the surface pressure beneath.  If one is following this... they may already see that a more defined axis would turn the air skyward more proficiently.  If that forced rising air has higher DP content, that turns into buoyancy by "latent heat of condensation" ... clouds fanning out explosively on satellite..etc, "baroclinic leafing" behavior... etc.   This feeds back in lowering the pressure more...

This entire situation lacks that thermal compression wall/gradient along a very well defined axis... It's causing these physics to really fractal place the low out around where ever quantum mechanics happens to choose the 'chimney' of rising air.  The mid level jet mechanics are going to induce an upward vertical motion ... but that is missing some mass/buoyancy input from below due to said axis being rather amorphously defined in this particular case.

This winter ...now early spring ... it's just been excruciating getting cold in sufficient amounts and it come back to bite this ..really beautiful deep layer evolution right in the ass.  I'm just describing what is going on - I'm not saying this event wont' snow by the way. ha

 

Would the mesos be more useful than the globals given this condition?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

The wierd thing about this setup is that the solutions that have the southern stream more suppressed end up warmer, with a second northern stream low forming over long island and tracking further northwest, like the ICON.

You need a strong southern stream surface low in just the right spot to faceplant northern stream as it's trying to form.

 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The longer you keep the inv trof look the more waa you’re advecting into the region…gotta start backing those winds sooner. 

This is what I was describing yesterday when I said most of us in SNE wanted to see a more dominant southern stream low…it shuts off the WAA going on further west from the northern stream IVT and then focuses all the baroclinicity further east and the low goes nuclear out near the BM up to the cape region instead of having Steve’s dog logs getting burnt by ozone. 

[moneypitmike]

29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

Looks like 18-20 on my head.  Not buying it.

[mattm4242]

Surprised a station already put one of these out, but an early map from NBC Boston.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

That's been mentioned on several tv stations. They do say that inside 128 is mostly rain however.

That’s a pretty bold call at this juncture I think. Some of these model runs have even places like Boston and Foxboro getting buried.

 

Little early to Be confidently broadcasting mostly rain (even though I think that is probably end result)

[Lava Rock]

 
Looks like 18-20 on my head.  Not buying it.

6" is a hard pass for me

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

That's been mentioned on several tv stations. They do say that inside 128 is mostly rain however.

Yeah we need a more wholesale shift east I think for inside of 128 to see mostly snow. They probably get in on some good heavy snow bands on these cape solutions but not before a lot of rain first. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, mattm4242 said:

Surprised a station already put one of these out, but an early map from nbcboston.

Noyes “ in house guidance that took them years to build”