ineedsnow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, TalcottWx said: Euro is very warm at the surface. Well above 32f for CT for entire storm. I would ignore surface of you have rates and cold above like 925 and higher 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: The euro is terrible for CT. All about that low that plows into CT. Remove that and it’s a statewide obliteration IMO. 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You don't resolve complex setups at 60 hrs, This may not even get resolved until your closer to 30 hrs or so. Yup, said that yesterday. Time to stiffen those backbones. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: We won’t know final ideas until 00z Sunday runs. One thing we do know is that Euro run has no chance of verifying. A compromise of Euro/ GFS is probably not a bad way to think end game. 00z Sunday is tonight lol ... Honestly we aren't going to be very confident with this until 18z Monday, and borderline areas will be a game time decision .. Have about 8 cycles to go until we know where general jacks will be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: 00z Sunday is tonight lol ... Honestly we aren't going to be very confident with this until 18z Monday, and borderline areas will be a game time decision .. Have about 8 cycles to go until we know where general jacks will be. Lol I meant Sunday nights runs into Monday . That will be when final calls can easily be made 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: You don't resolve complex setups at 60 hrs, This may not even get resolved until your closer to 30 hrs or so. This setup is so complex it has the Euro looking like the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I’ll take a foot+ blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ha, then blitzes eastern areas. Jesus Christ what a complicated set up. It’s gonna be another run or two to figure this out. It seems like the trend has been for guidance to try and do the IVT elongated low but then it eventually decides it wants the southern stream one to take over…I’m hoping we see a little earlier on that consolidation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Absolutely agreed. All the models have lil different ideas. The movie continues on to 18z. Subtle changes ea run has vastly different results, Although i would feel pretty good near Hubbie, Chris, Berks over to Rick (Logan11) right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: All about that low that plows into CT. Remove that and it’s a statewide obliteration IMO. Yup, said that yesterday. Time to stiffen those backbones. Yea that nipple appendage rears it's head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Ready to toss numbers around yet? I’ve been trying to stay conservative with this (shocking I know). 10-15” seems like a lock. 16-22” could be in reach 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Northern ORH county gets obliterated. I feel like they are the best spot right now in SNE maybe outside of the Berkshires. Almost every variation on these is crushing them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yea that nipple appendage rears it's head. Didn’t like it on the GFS, damn sure don’t like it on the euro. On to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Euro shows nice mild rainstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I feel like they are the best spot right now in SNE maybe outside of the Berkshires. Almost every variation on these is crushing them. Same general area but I’d feel pretty good in Litchfield too. Hell, a low rips through New Haven and they still get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 HOLD ON TO YOUR WEENIES! Nothing resolved, well maybe only a huge storm is about to befall y'all. Complexities of which might just come down to the dreaded "nowcast" Time just flies by. I sit and then look at the time. I thought is was like 10am. FASCINATING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Same general area but I’d feel pretty good in Litchfield too. Hell, a low rips through New Haven and they still get smoked. Yeah I kind of include northern Litchfield county in the Berkshires group. But they are gonna get destroyed. Our friend @FXWX right on the county line there at 1150+ feet is looking quite nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Same general area but I’d feel pretty good in Litchfield too. Hell, a low rips through New Haven and they still get smoked. Yea over and over the berks and Litchfield hills look great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Didn’t like it on the GFS, damn sure don’t like it on the euro. On to 18z. Yup. That isn’t even close to the final solution. We’re not any closer to a consensus here at 12z unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 The Euro had the same QPF here as the GFS, 2.7". The difference is that the GFS kept much of ENE below 0°C at 925, while the Euro did not for much of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 UK and EURO seem rather similar. Both have dumbbell lows both have similar snowfall distribution over New England. Ofc not sure how much to read into that with everything bouncing around run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I kind of include northern Litchfield county in the Berkshires group. But they are gonna get destroyed. Our friend @FXWX right on the county line there at 1150+ feet is looking quite nice. Scooter felt like it was this area on up thru ORH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, dan11295 said: UK and EURO seem rather similar. Both have dumbbell lows both have similar snowfall distribution over New England. Both are acting like dumbbells. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I kind of include northern Litchfield county in the Berkshires group. But they are gonna get destroyed. Our friend @FXWX right on the county line there at 1100 feet is looking quite nice. Road Trip to @FXWX 's house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 High end model cinema at 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I feel like they are the best spot right now in SNE maybe outside of the Berkshires. Almost every variation on these is crushing them. Yeah the northern part of ORH County is in it on every single run. Same with Berkshires and eastern Catskills for the most part. I'd take either northern ORH Cnty at 1,000ft+ or east slope of the Berks to be honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Scooter felt like it was this area on up thru ORH. I think your area looks pretty good but not as safe as Litchfield county or ORH county. As long as the low doesn’t sneak up to like GON area, I think you’ll be fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I kind of include northern Litchfield county in the Berkshires group. But they are gonna get destroyed. Our friend @FXWX right on the county line there at 1150+ feet is looking quite nice. I agree, lol... When I saw Wiz's map I told him to shift his max area to include high terrain areas of far western HFD cty, consider the extreme northern portion of NH cty (Wolcott area were 1000+ ft elevations are in play. The northern parts of Wolcott often plays out like Litchfield cty). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Road Trip to @FXWX 's house! Just bring snacks!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 0-18” feels like a good forecast here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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