The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket

[CT Rain]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GEFS look like just east of the Cape. 

Yeah looks quite good. 

When the GEFS are that much more amped than the op run I'd lean in the ensemble direction. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

12z GEFS is west of the OP.

it's a red flag   ...always has been with that model system and handling these west atlantic scenarios

[brooklynwx99]

UKMET looks like it captures with the NS

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GEFS a little progressive though. Captures in GOM. 

That and the cmc are proggy, GOM. Kind of expected while eps is amped and earlier capture. A compromise would do.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

UKMET looks like it captures with the NS

It was toying with doing that last night....inverted trough...must have commited.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

UKMET looks like it captures with the NS

Congrats Saranac Lake. 

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie is too far north with the ULL while at the same time being pretty weak with that southern stream which floods a lot of warmer air into the region...not a very snowy look until you get into the interior of NNE.

[dryslot]

UKMET's thermals are literally garbage.

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/major-storm-potential-delayed-but-not.html

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

UKMET's thermals are literally garbage.

Synoptics are bad on that run too...so even though Ukie often has a warm bias in the thermals, in this case, it would suck for most outside of interior hills of NNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Synoptics are bad on that run too...so even though Ukie often has a warm bias in the thermals, in this case, it would suck for most outside of interior hills of NNE.

I'm not too worried about it right now.

[George001]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Synoptics are bad on that run too...so even though Ukie often has a warm bias in the thermals, in this case, it would suck for most outside of interior hills of NNE.

Yeah a 990 mb low in central Mass isn’t going to cut it. The Canadian and gefs look great though

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Synoptics are bad on that run too...so even though Ukie often has a warm bias in the thermals, in this case, it would suck for most outside of interior hills of NNE.

Yeah, its pretty far west, So it would make sense in this case that its warm with that flow.

[SouthCoastMA]

I'm out on this one unless the GFS closer to right, which after the last 'storm' is a laughable prospect. 

[CoastalWx]

GEM ensembles into eastern MA too. No reason why it can't tuck into SNE.

[tamarack]

56 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

A lot of evidence that we get a stall/loop/prolonged capture.  Showing up on many models.  Details to be determined but glad the capture isn't off DE or Jersey.

That sequence Jeff posted would obliterate Cape Cod - storm force easterlies thru 3 full tide cycles?  Might have Provincetown Island if that verified.  

[qg_omega]

Another weak storm looks likely, this trends same as Saturday’s storm

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

@EastonSN+, we’ll need this tucked in, into SEMA, or under RI. A further east solution would be weaker and equate to a later capture. We’ll have to play with fire if we want to ‘get there’.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Another weak storm looks likely, this trends same as Saturday’s storm

ok

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

@EastonSN+, we’ll need this tucked in, into SEMA, or under RI. A further east solution would be weaker and equate to a later capture. We’ll have to play with fire if we want to ‘get there’.

Yeah it's all or nothing. At least we have something to track. Fear that this may come way west.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Another weak storm looks likely, this trends same as Saturday’s storm

Troll 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEM ensembles into eastern MA too. No reason why it can't tuck into SNE.

If that lead vortmax isn't the center of focus, then this will be mostly a rain event for a lot of New England...the northern stream diving in is pretty far west....further west than you'd typically want to see.

If there was confluence out ahead of it like Feb 2013, then it wouldn't matter as much, but since we don't have that, this setup is a lot more precarious than I think most in here are currently acknowledging.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah it's all or nothing. At least we have something to track. Fear that this may come way west.

The fear is real from ptsd but let’s give it another 3 days before we get spooked.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

If that lead vortmax isn't the center of focus, then this will be mostly a rain event for a lot of New England...the northern stream diving in is pretty far west....further west than you'd typically want to see.

If there was confluence out ahead of it like Feb 2013, then it wouldn't matter as much, but since we don't have that, this setup is a lot more precarious than I think most in here are currently acknowledging.

Where and how did the confluence suddenly just vanish?

[The 4 Seasons]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

UKMET looks like it captures with the NS

Why does pivotal look drastically different? It's the UKMET so who cares either way but 976 near the BM vs this looks entirely like a different run/model. Is the UKMET-G different from pivotals UKMET?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

If that lead vortmax isn't the center of focus, then this will be mostly a rain event for a lot of New England...the northern stream diving in is pretty far west....further west than you'd typically want to see.

If there was confluence out ahead of it like Feb 2013, then it wouldn't matter as much, but since we don't have that, this setup is a lot more precarious than I think most in here are currently acknowledging.

Leaning wet in E sne 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Why does pivotal look drastically different? It's the UKMET so who cares either way but 976 near the BM vs this looks entirely like a different run/model. Is the UKMET-G different from pivotals UKMET?

I see that kind of head scratch all the time in general graphics ...

I always just sort of assumed it's a resolution issue.

As far as the UKMET, I don't really use those products - pretty much ever ... - as their stinginess to allow general access when the fact of the matter is, all over modeling tech is competitive if not superior in some aspects, puts me off on them.    Still, that strikes me as one graphic system "estimating" based on a coarser resolution, whereas the other being finer meshed ...etc etc.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where and how did the confluence suddenly just vanish?

It’s not like -nao disappears into thin air, it’s decaying -yes- but that’s what we typically need for a biggie. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where and how did the confluence suddenly just vanish?

Ironically, Saturday's system would have made a good infusion to the 50/50 vortex, but it's getting crushed so far ESE it never helps out. We're left with the naked trailing ridge behind it with less 50/50 now pressing the heights down in Quebec.

In addition, the better Pacific with the big rockies ridge is actually making the northern stream dig a little too much for my liking on some of these solutions. We want it to dig, but not as early as it's doing, but it's responding to the big ridge building out west.

All of that in combination is making this more of a needle-threader than you'd typically want to see. There's still pretty high potential in this system, but I don't see a lot of margin for error that we sometimes see in other big dogs.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Leaning wet in E sne 

Agreed. Eastern NYS could be in for a big one. I’d lean rain for most east of Worcester, up to SE NH.

 

Things can change obviously