HoarfrostHubb Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, Professional Lurker said: Driving to work from Bernardston to Whately down 91, I was surprised to see that it remained 33F and snow the whole way. Even in Whately, it was sticking to grass areas and coming down pretty good. Will this over-perform in the upper valley? Hope so. ... we need an obs thread? Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk We have one Edit. Saw your follow up post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's also showing 10:1 ratios when it won't be. It's stacking snow like it's below freezing when it's not. So those amounts aren't going to be close. Exactly. You just have to hope all hell breaks loose and you drop enough cement on the trees and lines that the grid collapses when the eyewall crosses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's also showing 10:1 ratios when it won't be. It's stacking snow like it's below freezing when it's not. So those amounts aren't going to be close. Ok but even still, if the low is further out to sea like it shows wouldn't that help pull the cold down to 32? I hear your skepticism but these models keep amping up and not down this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Mike Masco on Twitter. Good look at this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 FWIW I think the local mets are going to increase totals at 11. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2023 Author Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Dam NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 That NAM loop is beautiful. That’s how I would draw it up in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 NAM is 6+ of paste lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2023 Author Share Posted March 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's also showing 10:1 ratios when it won't be. It's stacking snow like it's below freezing when it's not. So those amounts aren't going to be close. 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: It is sub freezing for a lot of the meat. Kuchera was pretty robust in Boston metro. 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Exactly. You just have to hope all hell breaks loose and you drop enough cement on the trees and lines that the grid collapses when the eyewall crosses. Yep Scooter knockout blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's also showing 10:1 ratios when it won't be. It's stacking snow like it's below freezing when it's not. So those amounts aren't going to be close. 3k NAM has freezing or below in BOS area from 20z until the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Satellite imagery will be amazing tomorrow 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2023 Author Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Yep Scooter knockout blow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Ray’s map could be happening 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Scooters roof getting blown off with 10” of paste? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2023 Author Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just now, 78Blizzard said: 3k NAM has freezing or below in BOS area from 20z until the end. Pig pile on the Met lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwick WX Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Good sign so far is it has held at 39 deg in my backyard. We'll see if it returns to 43 at 7am as forecast or we stay under, and maybe this will give away a flip before 4pm. As it is, our forecast flip has moved up from 6pm to 4pm. A few more hours of pounding gets us closer to 4-6". OTOH, the dreaded RI snow hole awaits to screw us right after the changeover from rain... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Dam NAM! nice reach around for E.MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 This is not a good luck for the IVT and continued llvl warmth. Mesosnalysis (which uses RAP ) really torches 925. Going to have to hope for a very quick consolidation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Good god. 3k NAM. Hello weymo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2023 Author Share Posted March 14, 2023 80 mph gusts just off Cape Ann on 3k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 80 mph gusts just off Cape Ann on 3k Top 5 spring storm for scoot if that day after tomorrow solution verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Regarding ratios, I know the nam has that for temps, but I think a chunk of it is paste. I certainly would welcome those modeled temps, but it would have to go to town to achieve that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 36 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Yeah, it's E and when it make the left turn and loops it stays offshore keeping us in the goods. Yea, the stall/capture/loop stuff always take a bit longer (east) to materialize than modeled...that is all I was banking on when everything was backing up today. This event reminds me of Dec 1992...just from a sensible standpoint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 I guess the best forcing will stay south when the coastal cranks but we are off to a decent start and several hours ahead of all snow and accumulating than the zone has. We are already a half inch with solidly moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 80 mph gusts just off Cape Ann on 3k Tropopause fold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Regarding ratios, I know the nam has that for temps, but I think a chunk of it is paste. I certainly would welcome those modeled temps, but it would have to go to town to achieve that. I’d rather 12” of powder than 6” of paste with those winds. Damage likely if that pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 23 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: 1015 PM Update... * High Impact/Major Winter Storm with 1-2 feet of heavy wet snow & power outages into Tue for northern ORH Hills/Berks * Rain overnight in most lower elevations which will eventually transition to some snow Tue but amounts/impacts uncertain We have high confidence that a serious/major winter storm will impact the northern Worcester Hills/Berks above 1000 feet in elevation overnight into Tue. Firehose of rich moisture combined with tremendous forcing/dynamics and thermal profiles are all supportive of 1 to 2 feet of heavy wet snow & power outages through Tuesday. This will be a very serious storm for these locations. Forecast confidence is significantly less to the south of the MA Turnpike and all lower elevations. While some wet snow has been mixed in with rain at times across the lower elevations of the interior...ESE low level flow around 925 mb should result in some warming in that layer overnight. So expect mainly rain in this region through daybreak. This 925 mb warm layer begins to erode Tue am and especially by afternoon. How quickly this occurs and where exactly the dryslot and intense frontogenesis sets up will be crucial if significant accumulations occur in the lower elevations. This is quite complex too considering very marginal boundary layer temps. Given the rapidly intensifying low pressure system getting pulled back towards the coast along with an intensifying closed 700 mb low will need to be watched. If there was an area we were most concerned about in the lower elevations for significant wet snow accumulations...its portions of northeast MA especially just inland from the coast. We are still evaluating the latest model data. I am just going om experience here and local climo....as long as this doesn't back in overhead, which I call BS on...I will get at least a foot. Interior ne MA is the best lower elevation spot to be more often than not in these late season elevation deals. No downslope and mitigated marine influence this time of year...if mid levels hold, it will snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 That wind depiction is a potential problem for the coast up here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am just going om experience here and local climo....as long as this doesn't back in overhead, which I call BS on...I will get at least a foot. Interior ne MA is the best lower elevation spot to be more often than not in these late season elevation deals. No downslope and mitigated marine influence this time of year...if mid levels hold, it will snow. I think you're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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