CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:23 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just don't agree...you can see that the GFS consolidates faster, and backs in further...when it was more of the inverted trough look, it didn't back in like that. These recent runs are unequivocally worse here than the ones early this AM. Apparently BOX agrees. Expand The euro has a consolidated low, but it swung real far out. I can see your point of view, and perhaps for a very small area that might be true, but for the most part across the region, I think having a more consolidated low helps. I mean look at the 12z NAM yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:29 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I'm already getting a dash of cat paws with these light rain drops at a raw 38 ... Hate to sound like a goober but it really does smell like it out there. I'm not going the other way around here. If this comes down hard after dark, it's snow - no question. I just have difficulty believing in this situation that you're area has to be that much different. I almost feel that that the pivoting of the rain/snow into N/S axis during today could just be an artifact of this present rendition of noise - I mean the GFS isn't necessarily constrained by physics into having to plow a warm micro node into NE Mass like that ... it's just randomness. Expand Don't you know that the atmosphere is out to get him. 5 straight years of porkage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 If you are a desperate weenie: box just tweeted out this map. If you're in the red circles, blow on the dice. Maybe u get lucky. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The herpes drop off in the Worcester area is insane. Somewhere there's going to be a massive drop in totals similar to the late season storms we get up north where there's literally nothing on the valley floor at 700' and 18" two miles (and 1000' in elevation) away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:31 PM, CoastalWx said: The euro has a consolidated low, but it swung real far out. I can see your point of view, and perhaps for a very small area that might be true, but for the most part across the region, I think having a more consolidated low helps. I mean look at the 12z NAM yesterday. Expand Was just catching up on the trends and had the same thought how the 18Z runs look really similar to what the NAM was trying to do yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:25 PM, Damage In Tolland said: How are you leaning tonight? Which scenario do you see as more likely or do we really still not know? Expand I just don't see a reason to be aggressive with higher end ranges. I think Ryan had a good map. I hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:28 PM, CT Rain said: Thank you! I feel pretty confident about the hills and even your area. Valley around Hartford/BDL is a tough call. My gut says mainly rain but wouldn't take much to flip over for a few hours of paste. Expand Yeah, great discussion as usual. Ryan, do you have a sense for the greatest bust potential, either positive or negative, for CT? Probably around Hartford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:31 PM, CoastalWx said: The euro has a consolidated low, but it swung real far out. I can see your point of view, and perhaps for a very small area that might be true, but for the most part across the region, I think having a more consolidated low helps. I mean look at the 12z NAM yesterday. Expand Yea, the small area is MBY. Like it usually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:31 PM, CoastalWx said: The euro has a consolidated low, but it swung real far out. I can see your point of view, and perhaps for a very small area that might be true, but for the most part across the region, I think having a more consolidated low helps. I mean look at the 12z NAM yesterday. Expand The Euro cut back here from 06z bc it trended in that same direction as the GFS..just not as drastic. Do I think it ends up backing in as much as the GFS? No...but if it does, then I'm done. More consolidated low increases that risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:28 PM, CT Rain said: Thank you! I feel pretty confident about the hills and even your area. Valley around Hartford/BDL is a tough call. My gut says mainly rain but wouldn't take much to flip over for a few hours of paste. Expand Not necessarily Kevin’s area but you had 6-12 for the Woodstock/Thompson area, thoughts that area could go higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:29 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I'm already getting a dash of cat paws with these light rain drops at a raw 38 ... Hate to sound like a goober but it really does smell like it out there. I'm not going the other way around here. If this comes down hard after dark, it's snow - no question. I just have difficulty believing in this situation that you're area has to be that much different. I almost feel that that the pivoting of the rain/snow into N/S axis during today could just be an artifact of this present rendition of noise - I mean the GFS isn't necessarily constrained by physics into having to plow a warm micro node into NE Mass like that ... it's just randomness. Expand I agree with you...just saying that a more consolidated low has a better shot of pulling that off. It would be far more detrimental here than it would be in Ayer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 No work for me tomorrow, so at this point, I don’t really care what happens. any chance this lingers into Wednesday for another day off? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gustmouse Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Air pressure received from ADS-B aircraft transponders over Western Connecticut 3-13-2023 1645-1745 local 3-13-20231645-1745 millibar-altitude - Sheet1.pdfFetching info... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:31 PM, Spanks45 said: how is your confidence out here in the land of Luke and I? It is nice seeing the banding showing up out here... Expand Yeah I think being west will help you quite a bit. In fact OXC is already down to 37. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 21z HRRR is awesome here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:33 PM, MarkO said: The herpes drop off in the Worcester area is insane. Somewhere there's going to be a massive drop in totals similar to the late season storms we get up north where there's literally nothing on the valley floor at 700' and 18" two miles (and 1000' in elevation) away. Expand I don’t think that is an elevation gradient on the herpes…it’s where the 925 layer warmed enough. ORH airpor and adjacent Paxton (1200+ feet) are pretty high in elevation and they both get porked that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:37 PM, Modfan2 said: Not necessarily Kevin’s area but you had 6-12 for the Woodstock/Thompson area, thoughts that area could go higher? Expand I doubt higher. Think 6ish is reasonable for you guys. The entire area from you down to Hartford on I-84 is probably my biggest uncertainty right now. On 3/13/2023 at 10:34 PM, JKEisMan said: Yeah, great discussion as usual. Ryan, do you have a sense for the greatest bust potential, either positive or negative, for CT? Probably around Hartford? Expand I could see a bit of everything. Overperformer western areas and underperformer east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:45 PM, CT Rain said: Yeah I think being west will help you quite a bit. In fact OXC is already down to 37. Expand Thanks! Topped out at 44⁰ today, down to 39⁰ now, hopefully we keep dropping as the heavier precip comes in. Keep things close at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:45 PM, CT Rain said: Yeah I think being west will help you quite a bit. In fact OXC is already down to 37. Expand First flakes mixing in here in Woodbury at 940' 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 ORH snowing now too. (Airport says 36 but it’s actually about 34 with their warm bias and all the mesonets around them are 33-34) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:52 PM, ORH_wxman said: ORH snowing now too. (Airport says 36 but it’s actually about 34 with their warm bias and all the mesonets around them are 33-34) Expand Like Scott said earlier, hopefully a major event like this with marginal thermals will prompt action to address that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Current radar looks impressive and there is a lot more convection than modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Usually these phased lows end up a bit more progressive than modeled, so I will bank on that...consolidated without retrograde would be ideal. I agree on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:45 PM, CT Rain said: Yeah I think being west will help you quite a bit. In fact OXC is already down to 37. Expand Ya 37.6 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:48 PM, CT Rain said: I doubt higher. Think 6ish is reasonable for you guys. The entire area from you down to Hartford on I-84 is probably my biggest uncertainty right now. I could see a bit of everything. Overperformer western areas and underperformer east. Expand Expecting the worst but hoping for the best here... at least it's dropped to 38 and isn't still above 40 like around Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 21z RAP just got more bullish for EMA, with 2"/hr rate between 14z and 18z, a total of 8" in that time frame here. Similar outcome in other areas of EMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 18z GFS bufkit for BDL. This is really all going to come down to the CCB. Sure the GFS may be "cold" bur when you look at why it's cold, it makes sense. It's tied into the duration of heavy rates. I mean if you're seeing a prolonged period of this much omega into the DGZ it's not only gotta rip, but it will accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 It’s crazy to see temps near 40F right now as far north as Quebec City. Even north of Quebec City. Too bad we didn’t have a little cold to work with. My bones tell me mostly rain here. My brain tells me there’s a chance at a positive bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Even the 18z NAM recovers for an afternoon pounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massplow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 10:54 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Usually these phased lows end up a bit more progressive than modeled, so I will bank on that...consolidated without retrograde would be ideal. I agree on that. Expand How do you feel about your map in eastern ma? Boston to providence corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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