Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 TEAL in tasking suggests it is the less capable (for a WS mission, lower ceiling, 23k feet) USAFR plane. Maybe military has more budget than NOAA? Edit to add: some of the data could go into HRRR/RAP runs before 0Z, I assume. They started sending data at 1810. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 8:41 PM, MJOatleast7 said: They're NOAA planes, right? If so I believe you do. Expand https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 BOX write up should be good not even out yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 8:43 PM, MuddyWx said: anyone know how they assimilate this collected data so that it's available for models? like when would models ingest/use this new data? Expand Based on the recon taking data right now, it should be available for the 0z models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 8:43 PM, bristolri_wx said: They probably have just as much interest as we do as to why the models can't figure this one out in a more agreeable way. Perhaps extra data can assist... The storm is going to be affecting several million people in some way. Expand Seems like that area is sampled well though coming off land and with satellites etc. I dunno. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 8:48 PM, 78Blizzard said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Expand NHC probably going to name the swirl. Gotta meet the quota this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 School already cancelled! Let us know on the way out! People not happy. I say embrace and just ski! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 8:49 PM, ineedsnow said: BOX write up should be good not even out yet Expand It’s out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1-2” forecast by BOX here. Not saying we are getting a foot, but surprised it’s not more like 4-7” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 8:38 PM, TalcottWx said: About as painful as you can draw up for sne weenies. Expand Jesus this is cruel and unusual punishment for SNE. 3 week track and Lucy pulls it in the 11th hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmass495 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Quote Among the guidance, we discounted the 12Z NAM, which looked to be a far western outlier with its track. Expand https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 8:54 PM, GCWarrior said: School already cancelled! Let us know on the way out! People not happy. I say embrace and just ski! Expand It will be fun to be a school admin for this storm. Parents will be sending some colorful emails, when school is canceled and they wake up to bare ground and pouring rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 8:54 PM, GCWarrior said: School already cancelled! Let us know on the way out! People not happy. I say embrace and just ski! Expand My daughter’s district already called it. Pretty wise move considering we will get a good event in my hood 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 8:58 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: It will be fun to be a school admin for this storm. Parents will be sending some colorful emails, when school is canceled and they wake up to bare ground and pouring rain. Expand And early dismissals are just as problematic...putting all the kids on the road with maybe no one at home to pick them up. I'm assuming most districts don't even have that as an option? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 8:55 PM, Damage In Tolland said: It’s out Expand What's your feeling for your area Kevin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Of all the maps I have seen .. this one mirrors my thoughts. Though I would not have 20-30” I think that’s more like 18-22” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 TWC really trying to polish this turd. Reps everywhere. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I know everyone wants snow, but removing that from the equation, its still a damn impressive system. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 9:07 PM, DavisStraight said: What's your feeling for your area Kevin? Expand I have 8-12” with up to 15” possible in highest elevations for this area up to Union. I really haven’t seen anything today to change that .Not saying it’s right, but that’s what I’m rolling with right or wrong . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 9:11 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: I know everyone wants snow, but removing that from the equation, its still a damn impressive system. Expand It really is. I’m mesmerized by the visible loop. It’s going to be a beast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 9:09 PM, EastonSN+ said: TWC really trying to polish this turd. Reps everywhere. Expand Two people in rain, but Felicia Combs in POU may get some good shots. Not sure why the NYC rain event is being televised. Edit to Add- ALY is 6-8 inches in POU... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 How is reggie no snow after 15z out to 495 with that track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I think the models being this far apart with results is the most amazing component. I understand the storm will be intense, but me personally I have seen plenty of windy rain on my days 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceberg Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 9:14 PM, CoastalWx said: How is reggie no snow after 15z out to 495 with that track? Expand because turds gonna turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 9:14 PM, CoastalWx said: How is reggie no snow after 15z out to 495 with that track? Expand Ha that's actually not a terrible run for eastern SNE... 925s are like -2C after 15z, that would be something like 36-37˚C heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Any of these maps over 18" are clown town. Rein it in guys. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 How come totals were lowered in eastern mass? The Euro was really good, nam too. Obs showing the low farther west leading to them thinking it will run inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Most relevant portions of 446pm AFD: ...There still remains some uncertainty on exact snow amounts across the lower elevations, including eastern MA and Boston... Still dealing with lots of critical differences in the latest guidance suite. While gaining confidence in some aspects of the forecast, still some lingering questions with the precise details. Among the guidance, we discounted the 12Z NAM, which looked to be a far western outlier with its track. This forecast was based more on the idea of the storm staying just offshore of eastern MA. All the guidance had a little pinwheel effect with the surface low pressure at some point tomorrow into tomorrow night. The critical question is where this happens. The main concern for this will be related to temperatures, which are rather marginal already. A more westward jog to this low pressure will mean armer air and less snow towards the coast. Another complicating factor to the snowfall forecast will be the timing and track of a dry slot in the dendritic growth zone. This looks like it will impact southeast MA and portions of RI. This will limit snowfall simply because the snowflakes themselves will not be as large or well formed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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