ineedsnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Looks better than 6z to me? It was, trended the mid levels and CCB better. Step in the right direction but still not great.. the thump tonight is warmer for northern ct so less snow overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I'm moving back east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, RDRY said: Yeesh. That Connecticut low is going to cut off big precip totals through central/western MA. Hmm. Snow map looks about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: I'm moving back east. Trust me it will change at some point to pre 2015 setup and WOR will jackpot 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 That was a pounding for eastern areas from like midday through mid evening tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s better than 6z if you’d actually look. It moved towards less nipple low. That’s what you wanted to see The low sits over your house. In what world that is encouraging I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, RDRY said: Hmm. Snow map looks about the same. Cut back a little bit... but mostly noise (in my area at least) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Euro would argue for some damage here. 6-8” of paste with wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 IF we can reduce that IVT just a shade more, I feel like we'll get a non-inear response to the snow in areas right on the edge....we're talking about 1C or so for many areas around 495 and down into N CT near Kevin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He’s not even looking at it. Let him go The bottom line is, which model does one believe and use as a forecast? Cuz if they use the Euro…there’s not a whole lot of snow for alot of people in CT/SNE outside Hubby and Ineedsnow. If you choose to believe the GFS and the Canadian and the NAM…well then it’s a different ballgame for CT. Flip a coin I guess at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: IF we can reduce that IVT just a shade more, I feel like we'll get a non-inear response to the snow in areas right on the edge....we're talking about 1C or so for many areas around 495 and down into N CT near Kevin. It's possible, but just not a comfortable experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That was a pounding for eastern areas from like midday through mid evening tomorrow. For eastern areas, actually not bad consensus emerging between 12z GFS / Euro / NAM (more so 3k). RGEM and CMC look on their own with torching the mid levels and looping system inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s better than 6z if you’d actually look. It moved towards less nipple low. That’s what you wanted to see You look at offhour runs now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: The low sits over your house. In what world that is encouraging I don't know. You moved to the worst snow spot in interior CT that you could . No one is taking this verbatim. Everyone is telling you if you’d look that it’s an improvement from 6z . The important thing is it moved towards the rest of the models . Not sure what you’re trying to do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: I'm moving back east. Move to Methuen, I hear they do well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, dendrite said: You look at offhour runs now? He doesn't look, he told me there were no red flags 48 hours ago and now there is a nipple on top of tolland 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Trust me it will change at some point to pre 2015 setup and WOR will jackpot 90% of the time. Doubt it. We will have our moments but a warmer and faster flow gulf stream combined with stronger progressive upper air patterns is not ideal for us. Discussion for another day though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You moved to the worst snow spot in interior CT that you could . No one is taking this verbatim. Everyone is telling you if you’d look that it’s an improvement from 6z . The important thing is it moved towards the rest of the models . Not sure what you’re trying to do Simsbury is not the worst snow spot in interior Sne I can name about 15 towns around me that are worse. I know you get confused and tired this time of day take a nap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, wxsniss said: For eastern areas, actually not bad consensus emerging between 12z GFS / Euro / NAM (more so 3k). RGEM and CMC look on their own with torching the mid levels and looping system inland. I'd like to see just another half tick S and weaker with the IVT, and then I'd be very confident in widespread 8-12" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 37 minutes ago, FXWX said: Hate to say it, but one of the issues we collectively have is that there are TOO MANY models to look at! ICON / RAP / 3k NAM / HREF / Reggie 1 & 2... models which we (maybe just me) have little or no faith in. Personally, I don't know the last time I even used the UKMET as a player in my decisions. It's great to debate what they are all showing, but the vast majority of the forecast is going to come from a mix of GFS / Euro / ens info and occasionally some NAM stuff... There may be some folks out there that really get into the RAP and/or HRRR for short range stuff, I use HRRR frequently but almost never beyond 12 hours. I guess sometimes the RAP and HRRR point toward some trends to keep an eye on, but they can be so unstable, its hard to trust them for making major shifts in your forecast thoughts... That being said, it is great for forum chatter... Don't get me started ... I've been trying to sort of poetically emphasize, there's too much technical deep dive reliance, and not even common sense ... The orbital perspective of the 'dominate factorization forest' provides and impression of its make-up that is obfuscated by the trees.. so to speak Not always - no... These tools are meant to supplement, though. Not take over... and fact of the matter is ( and too your point ) if one is being too far gone reliant You know, actually you can't really look at everything in time. Imagine that? Trying to categorize quantitative amounts of qualitative forecast metrics across a broad array, and then synthesize any kind of idea from? In 6 hour before the next siege that quickly replaces .... Nah. You'd almost need a super computer to integrate all the gunk coming off these super computers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx37 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Think the watches will be upgraded to warnings for SE Middlesex this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 One trend I'm appreciative of is the move away from dong talk towards nipple talk. To each their own, of course, but this is more preferable to me. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Euro more or less run out of my basement. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Move to Methuen, I hear they do well. Ray's place may be available for a below market price if this storm fails to produce.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah a bit less nipple . Nod towards others . Gives even more confidence now Needs a bit more cowbell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I’d take an inch of QPF and run right now. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Big jackpots they're findin' where posters high fivin' north to New Hampshire, they're goin' north, the Euro zone. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 How is the Euro hr 36 low just off the C. Maine coast throwing heavy precip SW into E. Mass and CT? Probably a good met reason for it but isn't that usually where the dry slot would be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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