ma blizzard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 15z RAP is hideous, worst run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, RAP farthest west yet. If I look up, will I see the eyewall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Rap is awful south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The rap is a terrible model 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Agree. It's all for nothing if 18z says "gotchya". If we’re still seeing big shifts at 18z lol all models should be taken offline until after the storm concludes. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, ma blizzard said: 15z RAP is hideous, worst run yet Hopefully it's playing into its overamped bias beyond 9 hours. But I've noticed the trend on every HRRR/RAP run is to be stronger with the IVT low and flood more and more BL warmth into SNE. That will quickly end any top end snowfall forecasts if that trend is real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I remember a March storm when I was in high school at Barlow in Redding, I lived in Easton - I was probably the most south student as I lived on Easton - Fairfield town town by Smith Richardson golf course. I woke up to white rain and a slush coating on grass and nothing on roads so I got ready for school. Drove up Sport Hill Rd. (rt. 59) and quickly there was more than just a slushy coating, but still the roads were fine so I kept going. Get to the Easton/Redding line by the Connecticut Country club and things went sideways. Inches of snow and very sketchy roads. I drove the Barlow because I had never listened for closures due to my house being just white rain. I almost got stuck at Barlow and school had been canceled. Went back home and still white rain. It was bizarre and this storm smacks of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sucks here. I thought it looked good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, cut said: I remember a March storm when I was in high school at Barlow in Redding, I lived in Easton - I was probably the most south student as I lived on Easton - Fairfield town town by Smith Richardson golf course. I woke up to white rain and a slush coating on grass and nothing on roads so I got ready for school. Drove up Sport Hill Rd. (rt. 59) and quickly there was more than just a slushy coating, but still the roads were fine so I kept going. Get to the Easton/Redding line by the Connecticut Country club and things went sideways. Inches of snow and very sketchy roads. I drove the Barlow because I had never listened for closures due to my house being just white rain. I almost got stuck at Barlow and school had been canceled. Went back home and still white rain. It was bizarre and this storm smacks of that. Oct11 was similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I think its time for IBM model weenie maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The RAP does give the Dacks 4FEET! Ya thats going to happen!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, DomNH said: I thought it looked good. You're west of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 My memory is the RAP tends to have a west bias at this range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: My memory is the RAP tends to have a west bias at this range Weenie curved left 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I wouldn't wipe my nose with the RAP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Appears that BOX & WPC are tossing 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Safe to say Euro was and is on its own island now To be fair, the Euro is behind American guidance of couple of hours; we don't know if that comparison is true per 12z ... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I wouldn't wipe my nose with the RAP I honestly think the last time it was right was 3-4 winters ago in one storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I’m afraid to look at Ukie snow maps given the 0z disaster it had . crushes Berks , 10” for N orh county and well ya it’s mild BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, DomNH said: I thought it looked good. We rap 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, dendrite said: We rap We toss. Tupac dead 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: what site do you like best for RAP? I need to replace by HRRR fetish weather.cod But Pivotal has hourly RAP forecasts. The 15z RAP run on weather.cod goes out 51 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Sweet a moderate dot right over me!!!! Whether it be a possible derecho or heavy, wet snow I always make sure to take time looking at the trees outside and wondering how many of them won't be there come tomorrow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 59 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Should not look at the CMC I’m grading to the Grand Canyon Right now don’t worry. Looking at Snow here. Though THANK GOD I came to Flagstaff last Friday the other time I was here: 90% of the 2-2 1/2 feet of Snow is Gone. And Ya, CMC OBLITERATES ORH. But see I would have driven to there to Finally see a Real Snowstorm for the first time in 2 years. So I Am still pissed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, dendrite said: We rap I don't mind pounding a foot of paste, slotting, and wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’m afraid to look at Ukie snow maps given the 0z disaster it had . It's strange because the h5 look is really good but it just doesn't produce at the surface outside of the western hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 It's looking like the coastal plain is kinda cooked on this one. My expectation will be for a surprise if we get some snow as the storm moves east rather than disappointment in not getting the snow others are receiving. Not surprising considering it's mid-March and there's really not much arctic air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 16z RAP was the first run that trended a bit colder at 925....still warmer than most guidance given the trend of the past several runs...it will take several more colder trends to reverse the warmer ones from earlier this morning. But we'll see if it can cool a bit because that makes a huge difference over the elevated interior overnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 the RAP is over 30 here and 0.2 for Springfield thats nuts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It's strange because the h5 look is really good but it just doesn't produce at the surface outside of the western hills. Yeah, you’d think it would be better based on the upper level depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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