TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:21 PM, ineedsnow said: Expand Lol. That's 12-15" 10:1 for me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:10 PM, TalcottWx said: You buy 2" in Simsbury with this look? Expand Definitely not, especially if these ticks continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:25 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Beat me to it. Not as wild as last night. Looks reasonable on the bullish side. Expand a little more after that though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:14 PM, Snowcrazed71 said: Ryan, I think he means for more of the areas not in the Northwest hills more towards the valley, but not quite the river itself. Some of these latest model runs are definitely showing more snow for areas even outside of the Northwest hills. Never seen anything like this. Expand I have, but I'll be 53 next week so I've seen a little weather lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 No matter how their map changes elsewhere, BOX has had Greenfield pinned at 6-8” for three days now. With current modeling I’m thinking probably closer to 10” here. I’ll buy gas and test the generator this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Juicy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:27 PM, UnitedWx said: I have, but I'll be 53 next week so I've seen a little weather lol Expand So have I, 51 myself. I've seen some strange things happen. I remember a storm when I was around 12:00 that my stepmom and I got stuck in in the Hudson valley near peekskill when she was visiting her parents. It wasn't forecasted, but we wind up getting like 8 or 9 in all at once. Crazy. It was like paste. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 You can see why the bust potential in both directions exists. It's warmth vs rates. Probably anywhere in the coastal plain that's close to freezing and gets under a heavy band risks switching over to very heavy wet snow as it brings the cold down to the surface. And at the same time, the warmth could win out and that's just all heavy rain. Challenging forecast! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:03 PM, CoastalWx said: I'll take Canadian look. Expand What happened to that giant FU valley shadow in Ct the canadian models (and others) had been prominently showing? What feature of the forecast storm development changed to basically wipe it away on the 12z run(s)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Outside of the higher elevations of ORH/Berks etc....I cannot recall such a challenging forecast. Most especially inside 495. This is absurd. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The one I remember most was in early March 2000. Working in Farmington, mix was forecast with an inch or so accums. I ended up driving back to Simsbury in heavy snow. We ended up with 17 inches... and a supply truck stuck in my driveway as a nice gift when I finally made it back. One of many like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:26 PM, bristolri_wx said: Expand Whats the diff between those 2 snowfall maps? Is one kuchie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:28 PM, bristolri_wx said: Juicy... Expand Sigh…if only we had a little HP above. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:35 PM, TalcottWx said: Whats the diff between those 2 snowfall maps? Is one kuchie? Expand It's in 24 hour increments. They don't have total snowfall maps for HREF, at least not for the price I want to pay ($0). First map is 12z Mon to 12x Tue, the second is 12z Tue to 12Z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 What if guidance is hitting the nipple too hard? Can’t blame them, it’s an easy mistake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:37 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What if guidance is hitting the nipple too hard? Can’t blame them, it’s an easy mistake. Expand There’s only one with the suckle .. the 6z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:34 PM, CoastalWx said: Outside of the higher elevations of ORH/Berks etc....I cannot recall such a challenging forecast. Most especially inside 495. This is absurd. Expand I've done this a lot of years... this is one of the most challenging / error prone calls I've ever made, not only for the inside 495 area but the western / eastern edges of the CT River Valley area from central CT northward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:33 PM, CTWeatherFreak said: What happened to that giant FU valley shadow in Ct the canadian models (and others) had been prominently showing? What feature of the forecast storm development changed to basically wipe it away on the 12z run(s)? Expand I think there is a shadow (in terms of lighter snowfall amounts due to boundary layer), but the key is to avoid the inv trough look and get this to consolidate into more of a classic nor'easter. Some guidance has tried to do that, but not sure we will ever get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:39 PM, FXWX said: I've done this a lot of years... this is one of the most challenging / error prone calls I've ever made, not only for the inside 495 area but the western / eastern edges of the CT River Valley area from central CT northward. Expand It's a disaster forecast for anywhere without elevation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:38 PM, Damage In Tolland said: There’s only one with the suckle .. the 6z Euro Expand Even the gfs holds onto the little nip for a tick too long for me liking. Let it go earlier and we pound longer out here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:41 PM, Ericjcrash said: It's a disaster forecast for anywhere without elevation. Expand It is so tenuous. While not a similar system, I'm wondering if the degree of difficulty with forecasting this is similar to the October 2011 storm (someone mentioned it earlier, but for a different reason). Stupid freezing point of water... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:40 PM, CoastalWx said: I think there is a shadow (in terms of lighter snowfall amounts due to boundary layer), but the key is to avoid the inv trough look and get this to consolidate into more of a classic nor'easter. Some guidance has tried to do that, but not sure we will ever get there. Expand Does this mechanism have to do with that meso low which had been shown earlier but less prominent or not at all with 12z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:35 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Sigh…if only we had a little HP above. Expand Season of wasted potential. We may be salvaging something here if the 12z trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 LOL, RAP farthest west yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:43 PM, CTWeatherFreak said: Does this mechanism have to do with that meso low which had been shown earlier but less prominent or not at all with 12z runs? Expand Yes. It is still there, but for you guys, you want that gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 3:38 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS looks better around here. Expand Sucks here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:44 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL, RAP farthest west yet. Expand Don't like that trend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:44 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL, RAP farthest west yet. Expand what site do you like best for RAP? I need to replace by HRRR fetish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 4:43 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Season of wasted potential. We may be salvaging something here if the 12z trend continues. Expand Agree. It's all for nothing if 18z says "gotchya". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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