78Blizzard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: RGEM is probably closer to a good solution than GGEM now. I like the GFS at present, and RGEM more or less in line with it. Can't see 4" QPF on this sort of evolution, 2.5" maybe. Suspect the answer is 0.5-1.0 inches rain, briefly sleet then followed by 10-15 inches snow for some coastal areas BOS south, less mix north, and 15-25 inches snow for most inland e MA and se NH, 10-20 southern coastal Maine. RGEM had 4" amount as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Green Bay WI managed 2" of snow on .02" liquid today (as the 500 mb center drifted past) and Madison also, on .09" -- I don't buy into 4" QPF because of the track of all relevant features, but certainly 2.5" and maybe locally 3" over hills just west of BOS. If any place gets all of that as snow, at 8 or 9 to 1 ratios, then 24-27 inches for them. Is it not the case that half of these snow threads end up with posts saying "QPF was overestimated" and not the other way round? But 2.5 to 3.0 QPF is still a massive hit if converted to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 RGEM was really good in 2014-15 and has been untrustworthy since. GGEM has become JV in recent years but my recollection is it used to be almost on par with gfs. Doesn’t mean either aren’t right tonight though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The herp has some big winners and big losers (coastal plain)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said: The herp has some big winners and big losers... Seems trustworthy 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Herpe looks somewhat similar to the evolution the CMC depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, mannynyc said: Seems trustworthy Point taken, but that looks more like an output error on TT because it's on the edge of it's data domain than the model itself. Same frame on NE view: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Bunch of rain verbatim on Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 17 minutes ago, mannynyc said: Seems trustworthy Looks like a pentagram 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Bunch of rain verbatim on Ukie the What happened with the pivotal uncle snow maps? No one in New England gets snow......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Second update and may be the final call. Based on everything ive seen this is probably the lowest map out there but this is what we are agreement on atm. A combination of latitude and elevation is going to help. I dont see much accumulating during the day on Tuesday especially for S CT at low elevations unless it really pounds. Between the setup, model agreement and trends and marginal air mass..it's obviously one of the hardest forecasts i've ever seen and i think most who are working on it would agree. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: What happened with the pivotal uncle snow maps? No one in New England gets snow......lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Oh well, that's crazy uncle for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Right-obviously an issue here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Having big time computer issues tonight, but my Final Call is in the outlook thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Right-obviously an issue here... I think it's the thermal profiles. 2m and 925mb is warm for most of the storm, so its seeing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 THe irony? The canadian models are good for me up here in VT and have never changed. But you guys slam them left and right. NAM and GFS have improved here as well, after going so far as saying Im getting ZERO. Who really knows they are just models that cant deal with phasing. And they've all done poorly this winter. But if there's a model that gets most dissed it's the canadian both long range and hi res. Sure the icon and ukmet probably top that chart, but it's gfs/euro/gefs/eps/ nam that everyone follows. Until the gem or reggie fits your narrative. then they are ok. I personally feel like they arent ok and are usually wrong. And thus agree with the masses. But until someone does independant verification on all of them how we do we really know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said: I think it's the thermal profiles. 2m and 925mb is warm for most of the storm, so its seeing rain. You telling me in the entire 6 state region that's the issue? No it has to be a glitch. ORH 3 inches? Ray 1.9 inches? No snow outside of a dumping in the Berks? 925 crashes by 18Z Monday. Something is wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: You telling me in the entire 6 state region that's the issue? No it has to be a glitch. ORH 3 inches? Ray 1.9 inches? No snow outside of a dumping in the Berks? 925 crashes by 18Z Monday. Something is wrong. Could be but if you switch the maps back two days it's been consistently on the low side for snow for most of eastern new england. Had more in western parts a day or two ago but has scaled that back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I can't wait to put this POS storm and winter season in the rear-view mirror, and never talk about it again. This map will need one more update then thats probably it, barring any sneaky interior elevation late Mar/April event. Fully expecting 0 here once again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, dmcginvt said: THe irony? The canadian models are good for me up here in VT and have never changed. But you guys slam them left and right. NAM and GFS have improved here as well, after going so far as saying Im getting ZERO. Who really knows they are just models that cant deal with phasing. And they've all done poorly this winter. But if there's a model that gets most dissed it's the canadian both long range and hi res. Sure the icon and ukmet probably top that chart, but it's gfs/euro/gefs/eps/ nam that everyone follows. Until the gem or reggie fits your narrative. then they are ok. I personally feel like they arent ok and are usually wrong. And thus agree with the masses. But until someone does independant verification on all of them how we do we really know https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/ thanks man!! that's amazing, can I see that in 3 days and 2 etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Final Call maphttps://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/first-call-for-major-protracted-winter.html Rain for many areas changes to snow Tuesday PM and rages all evening. Expect some power outages with this one due to combo of big winds and wet snow. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Discarding NAVGEM they are clustered. Everyone has their biases. I'm tired of this GD winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Final Call map That map makes a lot of sense! Thanks as always Ray for taking the time to put it out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Final Call maphttps://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/first-call-for-major-protracted-winter.html Rain for many areas changes to snow Tuesday PM and rages all evening. Expect some power outages with this one due to combo of big winds and wet snow. Thanks Ray. Should be a good one for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/ UKmet up there in second place ahead of the GFS but it doesn’t usually get treated that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, dmcginvt said: thanks man!! that's amazing, can I see that in 3 days and 2 etc also it's shocking how wrong everyone here is, they should include americanwx in that graph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, joey2002 said: UKmet up there in second place ahead of the GFS but it doesn’t usually get treated that way. exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Discarding NAVGEM they are clustered. Everyone has their biases. I'm tired of this GD winter! Huh? What is clustered? I'm so confused by this entire post. It'll all be over soon Jerry then we snow Winter 23-24 , promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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