The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket

[Greg]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Climate change is very much real and is accelerating, but I don’t think that’s why the models are struggling here. The models are struggling because it’s a Miller B. 

Exactly!

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The NAM showed that.

The NAM has been doing half way decent imo, and making more sense than most. 

[bristolri_wx]

3 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

I wouldn't give up on larger numbers south of the pike just yet.  Would like to see one or two more outputs of garbage before locking that in.  Still lots of atmospheric uncertainty...

And just like that 00z models start rolling in and it's a slightly different story than 18z...

[78Blizzard]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

The NAM has been doing half way decent imo, and making more sense than most. 

It's been most consistent.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If we can get a slower occlusion I think we’ll get crushed. 

Totally agree. Interesting that 00z tonight is trying to play out in a similar fashion it did yesterday, when the 00z suite stopped a bad daytime trend. Hopefully now that the storm is taking shape we get consensus. 

[78Blizzard]

The GFS 925s crash at 15z to just north of the canal.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

It's been most consistent.

Yes..agreed. 

[WxWatcher007]

I think the Canadian is going to crush. Again. Very consistent relative to the other guidance the last few days.

[RDRY]

GFS draws the lead vort way west into the main.low, GGEM does the opposite.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m not buying the fast occlusions either…that to seems off..

Given the rate of deepening it does seem plausible. Ideally, you’d like to see the rapid deepening happen as the storm is to our south and moving over the benchmark. This way you’re maximizing you’re mid-level support and fronto over the region.

in this case, the process happens a bit later then you’d like, but because the way the storm is evolving it also kind of helps us because it’s helping to prevent a total torch of the llvls. But when storms bomb out too quickly they become too wrapped up too quickly and you wrap the colder air into the center and cut off warm/moist inflow. 
 

 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I think the Canadian is going to crush. Again. Very consistent relative to the other guidance the last few days.

Was just gonna say CMC has been consistent and making decent sense of the set up. 

[ORH_wxman]

ORH obliterator on the Canadian. 

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think the Canadian is going to crush. Again. Very consistent relative to the other guidance the last few days.

Went right into Boston bay just like the RGEM at 18z.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian is truthfully a giant rainstorm for eastern ma before any flip, I mean like 2-3”+ of rain 

[Greg]

CMC and RGEM models are not as great with the thermal profiles as the GFS And NAM. A Usual bias with these models but the precip look good overall.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Hopefully the cmc thermals are off, because that’s like 4”+ of rain in the Boston are ending as slush 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Went right into Boston bay just like the RGEM at 18z.

ORH area crushed. Super soaker east of there 

[George001]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

The NAM has been doing half way decent imo, and making more sense than most. 

Agree, I buy the nams low track and think it has the right idea. Do I think I’m getting 2 feet like it gave me in that earlier run? No, but I think something like that snowfall distribution but toned down especially in eastern areas makes sense. 

[WinterWolf]

Curious, How does the Canadian look for the rest of SNE …other than Worcester and Taunton? 

[78Blizzard]

The NAM never gets north of the elbow of the cape, so that keeps the goods flowing in EMA and the cold air in, as opposed to the Canadian.

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Was just gonna say CMC has been consistent and making decent sense of the set up. 

I’d be surprised if the Ukie and Euro don’t tick back toward favorable given the tenor of 00z, but we’ll see.

Like I said a few days ago. Down to the wire. It will have been worth it if we thread the needle to a high impact obliteration. 

[weathafella]

Cmc did crash 925 but kept it like through Kenmore Square at 42 hours which is unusual given how wrapped the system is.   So all that rain with all those dynamics don’t completely add up.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[George001]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hopefully the cmc thermals are off, because that’s like 4”+ of rain in the Boston are ending as slush 

That’s not even an exaggeration, it has nearly 5 inches of rain for some areas. I know it’s not snowy for us but that’s a really cool solution. Almost like a tropical storm with strong winds, flooding rains, and possibly even thunderstorms. 

[dmcginvt]

I dont understand you people that constantly say the gem and reggie suck and then look to them when it favors you?  What gives?  Also Is there a verification site that compares??

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d be surprised if the Ukie and Euro don’t tick back toward favorable given the tenor of 00z, but we’ll see.

Like I said a few days ago. Down to the wire. It will have been worth it if we thread the needle to a high impact obliteration. 

Oh I’m on board with you…it will certainly be worth it.  

 

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Thank you so much for posting and sharing. Appreciate it. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

I dont understand you people that constantly say the gem and reggie suck and then look to them when it favors you?  What gives?

I understand not using the French or Icon, but the Canadian and RGEM are legitimate JV models IMO. 

[Roger Smith]

RGEM is probably closer to a good solution than GGEM now. I like the GFS at present, and RGEM more or less in line with it. Can't see 4" QPF on this sort of evolution, 2.5" maybe. 

Suspect the answer is 0.5-1.0 inches rain, briefly sleet then followed by 10-15 inches snow for some coastal areas BOS south, less mix north, and 15-25 inches snow for most inland e MA and se NH, 10-20 southern coastal Maine. 

[bristolri_wx]

3 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

I dont understand you people that constantly say the gem and reggie suck and then look to them when it favors you?  What gives?  Also Is there a verification site that compares??

The Canadian models have been consistent.  So they need to be weighed this time around a little more than usual.  And going back several years, the Canadian models have "hit" on storms in the past.  Just not as many as the Euro or the GFS.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

I dont understand you people that constantly say the gem and reggie suck and then look to them when it favors you?  What gives?

They’re usually very erratic, and just not all to good most of the time. But the CMC has been better and quite consistent with this system I have to say. Gotta give it some credit imo here. Made the most sense imo for the set up we have here.