STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 2:55 AM, HinghamBoss said: Can someone get Harvey on camera to tell us how this is going to go? Expand Did he ever return Rays 3am tweet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 2:32 AM, FRWEATHA said: Was supposed to see Springsteen tonight so reading these posts has been my entertainment. Hoping to be pleasantly surprised here. Expand Did they ever explain the cancellation? Who got sick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 2:57 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Did he ever return Rays 3am tweet Expand You up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 2:55 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Not at all . I’m simply saying at 200’ you are in valley (even in the edge ) and that is a real bad spot for this storm and I didn’t think you realize it as your new to the area Expand No its pretty obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 2:57 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You up? Expand I saw it posted/ linked to This thread this am around 8-9am Would love Harv input as we are really all sitting around responding to the scattershot or model runs pour in and be all over the place I really enjoyed Oceanstwx post about Why he thought the 12z nam MSLP position made sense . I would assume if the General vorticity being tracked East off Carolinas is still meh then his opinion still stands but I felt like that really added to the thread . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 1:49 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: It is. Get a clue. Expand I mean storm wise sure, but major snow amounts aren’t happening in eastern sections like implied. 48 hours out was way too much time to be so sure especially when everything has been so inconsistent. If that idea reverses in the next 2 cycles then major credit to you. Hope it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 2:58 AM, TalcottWx said: No its pretty obvious Expand Ok sorry , I didn’t mean to sound like a dink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 3:02 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ok sorry , I didn’t mean to sound like a dink Expand It's OK - track seems like bigger concern vs elevation. I get a decent amount of snow if we can get the low further south and east. Let's just get that to happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 2:55 AM, HinghamBoss said: Can someone get Harvey on camera to tell us how this is going to go? Expand Harvey Leonard from the 1980s? Is he still alive? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 3:02 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ok sorry , I didn’t mean to sound like a dink Expand Non-topography based, region wide dumps in SNE, have been few and far between lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 3:01 AM, BombsAway1288 said: I mean storm wise sure, but major snow amounts aren’t happening in eastern sections like implied. 48 hours out was way too much time to be so sure especially when everything has been so inconsistent. If that idea reverses in the next 2 cycles then major credit to you. Hope it does Expand I haven't issued a final map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Has box come out with a new AFD since they let George right the last one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 3:01 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: I saw it posted/ linked to This thread this am around 8-9am Would love Harv input as we are really all sitting around responding to the scattershot or model runs pour in and be all over the place I really enjoyed Oceanstwx post about Why he thought the 12z nam MSLP position made sense . I would assume if the General vorticity being tracked East off Carolinas is still meh then his opinion still stands but I felt like that really added to the thread . Expand Well now we're getting into the fun nowcasting. Start looking at WV and seeing which models are closest to reality on placement of vorticity features. Obviously you can find the rotation of the upper lows themselves, but vort maxes will present as drying immediately upstream of the center (think ascent ahead and subsidence behind). 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Good luck - time to go back to bed. Work at 4 am, ugh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 3:06 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't issued a final map. Expand Anyone who remotely gets this right with accumulations with a final map before am commute is gonna be a star Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 3:07 AM, OceanStWx said: Well now we're getting into the fun nowcasting. Start looking at WV and seeing which models are closest to reality on placement of vorticity features. Obviously you can find the rotation of the upper lows themselves, but vort maxes will present as drying immediately upstream of the center (think ascent ahead and subsidence behind). Expand Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 3:07 AM, OceanStWx said: Well now we're getting into the fun nowcasting. Start looking at WV and seeing which models are closest to reality on placement of vorticity features. Obviously you can find the rotation of the upper lows themselves, but vort maxes will present as drying immediately upstream of the center (think ascent ahead and subsidence behind). Expand Anything you can glean from that at this stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 3:06 AM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Harvey Leonard from the 1980s? Is he still alive? Expand Try more like the 1970's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 2:55 AM, HinghamBoss said: Can someone get Harvey on camera to tell us how this is going to go? Expand Spoke to him earlier … he’s in the camp that this will dynamically over power BL thermal fields and that models are likely underselling those physical resolutions in the lowest levels … not to be a dank, but he was actually agreeing with me – and I only say that really cause this whole situation is just starting to frustrate the shit out of me But it makes sense higher res tools are seeing it colder - we’re getting some colder looks as we get closer. It’s all a moot point however, if we can’t nail down where it’s actually going to be snowing for Christ sake 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Everyone of these models is jumping around every single cycle. Everyone of them is drastically different, and the same models are drastically different each run. So, a question for the pros and very knowledgeable hobbyists, what actually makes sense here, with the ingredients we have coming together? Tip eluded to this possibly coming together more cohesively and becoming much more of a problem(colder and snowier) than many models are showing currently for alot of the area. A lot of these runs don’t make sense. So maybe as Tip put it, we need to use some old fashioned meteorology to actually figure this out. A more cohesive storm that’s not chasing convection out to the Flemish cap that stalls near the cape does make more sense than these outlandish solutions we’ve been seeing. Just thinking out loud here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 3:09 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Anyone who remotely gets this right with accumulations with a final map before am commute is gonna be a star Expand I'll send mine out in a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Maybe the NAM has the right idea, but this occluding at light speed idea seems spurious to me. It’s in a perfect spot for a whole SNE crushing, but it only hammers one small area, cuz it’s dying as fast as it got going…c’mon that just seems outlandish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 3:07 AM, OceanStWx said: Well now we're getting into the fun nowcasting. Start looking at WV and seeing which models are closest to reality on placement of vorticity features. Obviously you can find the rotation of the upper lows themselves, but vort maxes will present as drying immediately upstream of the center (think ascent ahead and subsidence behind). Expand Good info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 3:20 AM, WinterWolf said: Everyone of these models is jumping around every single cycle. Everyone of them is drastically different, and the same models are drastically different each run. So, a question for the pros and very knowledgeable hobbyists, what actually makes sense here, with the ingredients we have coming together? Tip eluded to this possibly coming together more cohesively and becoming much more of a problem(colder and snowier) than many models are showing currently for alot of the area. A lot of these runs don’t make sense. So maybe as Tip put it, we need to use some old fashioned meteorology to actually figure this out. A more cohesive storm that’s not chasing convection out to the Flemish cap that stalls near the cape does make more sense than these outlandish solutions we’ve been seeing. Just thinking out loud here. Expand I think a cohesive storm traveling up and stalling near the elbow can happen ɓut all the pieces have to fit exactly. Now cast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 3:10 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Anything you can glean from that at this stage Expand Nothing drastic, general look to vorticity appears right across guidance (but that's to be expected at hour 00). But guidance does seem to have initialized too high on heights for the vort max across southern Iowa. Ensembles don't seem to be all that sensitive to that specific feature though. Not sure it is playing that large a role. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 3:30 AM, Ginx snewx said: I think a cohesive storm traveling up and stalling near the elbow can happen ɓut all the pieces have to fit exactly. Now cast. Expand Oh for sure Steve, and that was part of my point. Obviously these things need to come together precisely, but some(a lot) of these runs are insanely messed up. And I guess my point was, sometimes common sense and relying on what you’ve learned, and asking yourself(METS/knowledgeable hobbyists like yourself) what actually makes the most sense here? Since modeling is just off on a bender so far…and not providing any clear solutions yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 This is honestly crazy. Feel like literally nobody has any idea whats going on. Why does it almost seem like the models have gotten worse over the years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RikC Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 3:35 AM, NotSureWeather said: This is honestly crazy. Feel like literally nobody has any idea whats going on. Why does it almost seem like the models have gotten worse over the years? Expand climate change; atmospheric dynamics are evolving faster than the models can keep up!! 1 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 I have always believed heights crashing that fast leads to snowier colder solutions. I also preach closed sub 530 ULLS passing under us are a snowy solution. This has me baffled. Model outputs are no where near what I expected. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 3:38 AM, RikC said: climate change; atmospheric dynamics are evolving faster than the models can keep up!! Expand Not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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