Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 12:15 AM, FXWX said: Expand That's better than I thought 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 12:51 AM, CoastalWx said: EPS would argue op is on the eastern edge it seems. Expand That's what it appears to me... Nothing is coming easy with this event... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Wa wa Wachusett 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 12:52 AM, Ginx snewx said: That's better than I thought Expand Yes... I know all the caveats about temps and rates, etc... And I know the deal with the snow graphics, but run after run continues to highlight more snow than suggested by some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 12:54 AM, FXWX said: That's what it appears to me... Nothing is coming easy with this event... Expand Down to the wire. Even if 00z pulled back from the brink I’m not sure I’d trust it. We had a lot of discussion but decided to stick with our map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 12:56 AM, FXWX said: Yes... I know all the caveats about temps and rates, etc... And I know the deal with the snow graphics, but run after run continues to highlight more snow than suggested by some. Expand EPS looking ok according to Scoots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 12:51 AM, FXWX said: Expand God help my trees if we get 26”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 12:58 AM, Chris12WX said: God help my trees if we get 26”. Expand God help us all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 12:58 AM, Chris12WX said: God help my trees if we get 26”. Expand Probably wet first half so even a foot is see ya most weak limbs over that hardwood trees have issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 12:55 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: Wa wa Wachusett Expand Dude, so consistent there for you & company. Northern ORH County on each and every model run. The ratios also have an actual shot at 10:1 there too. East flow does upslope and leads to forced parcel ascent cooling there. Every few tenths of a degree of cooling will make a big difference in these marginal events. Low level air rising over you vs sinking over you, will define the event IMO. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Well, that de-escalated quickly. Back to your regularly scheduled programming. Let’s get some light wind, sunny nape days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 1:01 AM, powderfreak said: Dude, so consistent there for you & company. Northern ORH County on each and every model run. The ratios also have an actual shot at 10:1 there too. Expand Pretty amazing how just about every run of every model dumps here. I’m trying to think of anything that wavered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 1:01 AM, powderfreak said: Dude, so consistent there for you & company. Northern ORH County on each and every model run. The ratios also have an actual shot at 10:1 there too. Expand I already told my wife we road trip after they clean up. Could you imagine 30 inches of paste! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 1:02 AM, NorEastermass128 said: Well, that de-escalated quickly. Back to your regularly scheduled programming. Let’s get some light wind, sunny nape days. Expand How long until somebody is posting about the next ten day “potential”? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 1:04 AM, WxWatcher007 said: How long until somebody is posting about the next ten day “potential”? Expand Pretty soon the next ten day potential will be a severe thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 12:55 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: Wa wa Wachusett Expand Is that you holding one of the que cards there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 1:04 AM, WxWatcher007 said: How long until somebody is posting about the next ten day “potential”? Expand I think she let us out. If not I’m sneaking out and running away. Good riddance 22/23. Only good thing is we set the all time futility mark if we do get under 5” here which seems likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I don’t recall such crazy ranges in tracks this close to an event. It’s amazing. Any slight deviation in short wave intensity and location is going to mean a lot for those sort of on the line. Only thing that’s a lot is Dave getting smoked lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 1:08 AM, CoastalWx said: I don’t recall such crazy ranges in tracks this close to an event. It’s amazing. Any slight deviation in short wave intensity and location is going to mean a lot for those sort of on the line. Only thing that’s a lot is Dave getting smoked lol. Expand Dave and Pete and Mitch. Mitch may be high card with big ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 So just how good is the resolution? I mean, I know they are clown maps....but even a shift southeast of 10 miles make a ridiculous difference in a few inches to power outage type snows.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 How Many….. EFFING Models Runs will have ORH County with 30”+ and Me with 3”. This is Purr Insanity. The 5th Model Run in 24 hours with that exact solution. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Eps spread is kind of absurd given how close in we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 6:26 PM, dryslot said: Subtle changes ea run has vastly different results, Although i would feel pretty good near Hubbie, Chris, Berks over to Rick (Logan11) right now. Expand No changes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 1:10 AM, Spanks45 said: So just how good is the resolution? I mean, I know they are clown maps....but even a shift southeast of 10 miles make a ridiculous difference in a few inches to power outage type snows.... Expand On 3/13/2023 at 1:10 AM, Spanks45 said: So just how good is the resolution? I mean, I know they are clown maps....but even a shift southeast of 10 miles make a ridiculous difference in a few inches to power outage type snows.... Expand Most of that is fake accumulation honestly right on that edge. 925 is torched for half of that. The purple line probably about 1-3”.. then 6”+ Litchfield hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 1:10 AM, Spanks45 said: So just how good is the resolution? I mean, I know they are clown maps....but even a shift southeast of 10 miles make a ridiculous difference in a few inches to power outage type snows.... Expand I'm in the same boat, a few runs had me at 20+ and some under 8 inches, right now I'm on the edge of double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 1:12 AM, TheSnowman said: How Many….. EFFING Models Runs will have ORH County with 30”+ and Me with 3”. This is Purr Insanity. The 5th Model Run in 24 hours with that exact solution. Expand The models are signaling a strong elevation event for the interior hills. The lower elevations and coastal plain will depend on exact evolution and precip rates. Take 6-7:1 ratio in the lower elevation snow column, and 8-10:1 ratio in the higher elevation. Adjust map as needed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 1:08 AM, CoastalWx said: I don’t recall such crazy ranges in tracks this close to an event. It’s amazing. Expand Really, because I think the sentiment you are expressing has been expressed every other storm on here. The uncertainty of the forecast is amplified by the weenies on the edges who are tracking every vacillation to the point of insanity, laughing, I might add, at more steady and conservative approaches by the likes of box, for not hoisting em, raising em, and, presumably, jerking them knees. The thing here is all the normal evolution of the storm uncertainties, track, etc. are even more amplified by the liminal temps. I'm fascinated to see how it pans out. I think this will be increasingly how I have to appreciate winter weather given my location and, well, you know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 12:58 AM, Ginx snewx said: EPS looking ok according to Scoots Expand Yes... As he noted, eps appears to suggest op is a bit too far east. I'm with Tip concerning significant unknowns about how things can rapidly develop in ways you don't see coming well in advance with setups as dynamic as this at mid-levels. Maybe it plays out as modeled but I think we might have some significant nowcast issues down the road. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The OP Euro is also on the eastern edge of its own ensemble 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/13/2023 at 1:16 AM, NeonPeon said: Really, because I think the sentiment you are expressing has been expressed every other storm on here. The uncertainty of the forecast is amplified by the weenies on the edges who are tracking every vacillation to the point of insanity, laughing, I might add, at more steady and conservative approaches by the likes of box, for not hoisting em, raising em, and, presumably, jerking them knees. The thing here is all the normal evolution of the storm uncertainties, track, etc. are even more amplified by the liminal temps. I'm fascinated to see how it pans out. I think this will be increasingly how I have to appreciate winter weather given my location and, well, you know. Expand I’m not talking about the uncertainties due to temps, I’m talking about low tracks 200 miles apart depending on the model. That’s insane this close to an event. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now