ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: gfs is terrible SE of I84 thru 42. Que up ineedsnow saying the GFS is perfect! The new Dr. No = GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: The new Dr. No A non event for us lol, yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Gfs is kind of pedestrian most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: They went from super conservative to having George write the AFD, what is going on there as long as the B word doesn't get tossed out there, we're good... that's like the kiss of death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Gfs went back to its 00z solution almost exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Que up ineedsnow saying the GFS is perfect! The new Dr. No = GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: A non event for us lol, yup. Luckily from the last storm we know we should trust the Euro more this close in, especially for coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Pretty good mid level look in ern areas, but yeah..that low pivots real far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: How can a model be this shitty 2 days out ? Because most of us know it's skill isn't as a long range model. Shouldn't run as far out as it does imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: more reasonable totals imho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Snow depth change for GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Well we needed this here to salvage this winter. Doesn't look good. A lot has to right this late for things to work out. It's too painful to even post my seasonal accumulation to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, tavwtby said: more reasonable totals imho You are primed for 18 or more man. Get everything prepped and put away silly snow maps. This one is pretty well locked up in terms of amounts for most areas iMo . Beast is enroute for a large portion of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 No what you wanted to see. 99%of CTs population would get a coating to 2” on the grass with that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Snow depth change for GFS. Yikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Snow depth change for GFS. WHat a meh depction. It's the only model that doesn'thave me in double-digits though, so I won't rant too much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty good mid level look in ern areas, but yeah..that low pivots real far out. At some point that low chasing the convection is either going to happen or it isn’t. That little vort doesn’t want to get phased into the northern stream like we saw on many previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: No what you wanted to see. 99%of CTs population would get a coating to 2” on the grass with that solution. I mean, we still have the 3k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: I can work with that 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I’m feeling pretty good for 12-18” here. Not sure it will get any higher than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said: Well we needed this here to salvage this winter. Doesn't look good. A lot has to right this late for things to work out. It's too painful to even post my seasonal accumulation to this point. O please I'm at 1.7 down here in NYC Disgusting 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 As Jerry said, 0z will be huge. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Looks like this gummy wager could be the most compelling aspect of the storm for the CT brethren after all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: O please I'm at 1.7 down here in NYC Disgusting I don't live in a concrete jungle. Shouldn't be as hard to get some snow to stick in rural areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The overwhelmingly powerful moving synoptic parts will obliterate the BL warming ... much more likely in a uniform result. Too much tech dive is obfuscating common sense - not just in here but in the general Met community. These subsuming N/stream fusion into diabatic inject S/streamers, become dynamic hammers ( in the maudlin turn of phrase). None of the interpolated snow products ...and ( I feel ) quite a bit of human interpretation, are not getting the big picture here of what this kind of event is capable of becoming. Hopefully the nit picking keeps it upper pedestrian/lower major like that... Heh. Just like no one guessed a tropospheric fold would strafe SE zones with sustained 'cane winds in 2005, or how 128/95 becomes a stranded parking lot on the eve of 1978 Feb 6 ... the upper bounders like to impose "wild card" severity. This one fits that ilk. I'm particularly concerned along a Willimantic CT to Bebford MA where for a time, thick caking/rhyme snow may then freeze while being struck with high winds into that snow loaded infrastructure. Otherwise, I'm not too concerned about the risk for heavy snow as singular metric. I've seen this town cut through 22" snow storm twice and I was able to hit the gym later the same afternoon ... Snow, alone, is not the same beast to civility it was 40 years ago. But, if the visibility is very low and the wind manages to gust in the interior and the temperature is 30 F ... this turns into a different animal. I don't buy the 18z NAM and other waffling as negation. It's roughly half way between the 12z and the oddly barren 00z run ...and is more a reflection of wobbling with the internal physics ( giga noise). It's too possible that a dangerous scenario unfolds to worry about that, as the players are not in question - unlike other events this year. They are pretty well accounted for. The GFS is largely dismissed 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The overwhelmingly powerful moving synoptic parts will obliterate the BL warming ... much more likely in a uniform result. Too much tech dive is obfuscating common sense - not just in here but in the general Met community. These subsuming N/stream fusion into diabatic inject S/streamers, become dynamic hammers ( in the maudlin turn of phrase). None of the interpolated snow products ...and ( I feel ) quite a bit of human interpretation, are not getting the big picture here of what this kind of event is capable of becoming. Hopefully the nit picking keeps it upper pedestrian/lower major like that... Heh. Just like no one guessed a tropospheric fold would strafe SE zones in 2005, or how 128/95 becomes a stranded parking lot on the even of 1978 Feb 6 ... the upper bounders like impose "wild card" severity. This one fits that ilk. I'm particularly concerned along a Willimantic CT to Bebford MA where for a time, thick caking/rhyme snow may then freeze while being struck with high winds into that snow loaded infrastructure. Otherwise, I'm not too concerned about the risk for heavy snow as singular metric. I've seen this town cut through 22" snow storm twice and I was able to hit the gym later the same afternoon ... Snow, alone, is not the same beast to civility it was 40 years ago. But, if the visibility is very low and the wind manages to gust in the interior and the temperature is 30 F ... this turns into a different animal. I don't buy the 18z NAM and other waffling as negation. It's roughly half way between the 12z and the oddly barren 00z run ...and is more a reflection of wobbling with the internal physics ( giga noise). It's too possible that a dangerous scenario unfolds to worry about that, as the players are not in question - unlike other events this year. They are pretty well accounted for. The GFS is largely dismissed Tip gone wild. You love to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 If he's wrong I'll need my own toaster bath meme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 RGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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