STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Need to see 0z models but I think that I would lean between goal posts of 12z and 18z nam for track ...I think the part of S stream vort that bleeds East of Carolinas will be sooo Far East and away that it will not be more than a minor appendage And the part of S stream vorticity that consolidates With N stream will likely be where main low takes over closer to where ocean st wx says makes more sense . Earlier an it’s 12 nam later and it’s 18z . Maybe I’m wrong But if 0z runs go with that I’m down with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Colder NAM run at surface and aloft. 31°F at 18z here verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: dryslots here for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just a verbatim assessment, but the 18z NAM I think is a big caution for Connecticut, except perhaps eastern Connecticut. Doesn't seem like we get the best mid-level goodies here...looks like subsidence issues too. Not saying I believe that, but just an assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 That’s pretty crazy here for about 6 hrs. Also gets death band into CNE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Looks like an ORH-eastward special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Pretty big pounding ORH county into NE Mass (though don't "like" the dry air involved) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: dryslots here for a bit You'll be just fine dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Just a verbatim assessment, but the 18z NAM I think is a big caution for Connecticut, except perhaps eastern Connecticut. Doesn't seem like we get the best mid-level goodies here...looks like subsidence issues too. Not saying I believe that, but just an assessment. Lows never stack. Mid levels never really get organized 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 stalls on the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 PIT2 gets into it pretty good, too. How funny if they beat out down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I don’t hate the 3k NAM. We flip here pretty early verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3K is similar too. Then again it was at 12z haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Just a verbatim assessment, but the 18z NAM I think is a big caution for Connecticut, except perhaps eastern Connecticut. Doesn't seem like we get the best mid-level goodies here...looks like subsidence issues too. Not saying I believe that, but just an assessment. I mean it’s not just the nam it’s now the hrrr gfs euro almost every model .. starting to get agreement that the nip storm ruins it for a good chunk of ct by torching us then slotting us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 A great storm; but the structure put a ceiling on it that run. Seems to be the difference between memorable and forgettable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s pretty crazy here for about 6 hrs. Also gets death band into CNE. Word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Stalls over elbow of cape between 18z and 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: Lows never stack. Mid levels never really get organized the dual low structure is really screwing up. Just looked at H7 low and after seeing that and how it evolves and where it closes you would think CT would be in a pretty prime spot. Another big issue which has been very consistent is occlusion happening too early. Now...that doesn't mean this won't be a massive storm, but is critical when talking about historic prospective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I think every model has me solidly in double digits, so I'm happy. In 3 weeks we'll be tracking leaf-out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s pretty crazy here for about 6 hrs. Also gets death band into CNE. Do tell ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I mean it’s not just the nam it’s now the hrrr gfs euro almost every model .. starting to get agreement that the nip storm ruins it for a good chunk of ct by torching us then slotting us. Yeah the continue move in that direction is not good. Still seems like a pretty solid event with power issues, but nothing near historic potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3k NAM through 52h 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 (sh)NAM wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Nice AEMATT shellacking on NAM! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: A great storm; but the structure put a ceiling on it that run. Seems to be the difference between memorable and forgettable. Still snowing for most at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: A great storm; but the structure put a ceiling on it that run. Seems to be the difference between memorable and forgettable. Does it start as rain in E MA, then flip to snow and pile up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Do tell ... Light house pictures in the snow Wednesday morning? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: the dual low structure is really screwing up. Just looked at H7 low and after seeing that and how it evolves and where it closes you would think CT would be in a pretty prime spot. Another big issue which has been very consistent is occlusion happening too early. Now...that doesn't mean this won't be a massive storm, but is critical when talking about historic prospective. Historic stuff is off the table except for select spots. 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I mean it’s not just the nam it’s now the hrrr gfs euro almost every model .. starting to get agreement that the nip storm ruins it for a good chunk of ct by torching us then slotting us. Yea. GFS had the right idea all along, just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3k much better solution than 12k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The nam is frigid during the heaviest snows in eastern mass, 30 degrees right to the coast. If that’s right, the 10:1 maps may be underdone, not overdone. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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