tavwtby Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: ***The map posted is what we call the 50th percentile forecast (meaning most guidance and outputs lead to this outcome). Keep in mind it is also very possible with this storm that the 25th percentile verifies (cut these numbers in half) or the 75th percentile verifies (double these numbers)*** Here's what we captioned it with.. Let's see where we go from here.. more in line with what I have been thinking all along, too many uncertain variables, mainly temps, the lack of a strong high in Quebec is a key, phasing is also key, who knows can always go up, but I'd hedge down if anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: trees around here are going to have a tough time I think Good day to make sure the generator is working. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 My zones have one to three Monday night and 6 to 10 Tuesday and then straight up forecast for snow Tuesday night and part of Wednesday implying the more significant accumulation. I don’t see much of the model output that’s bullish for more than a foot up here as the zones apply but GYX seems pretty bullish actually. They even invoked the 2013 and 2015 storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: When I looped h5 on the 06z euro, I def expected heavier QPF than what it showed. But it was a step down from 00z. It’s going to be a significant storm, but the difference between a HECS type blizzard and a fairly heavy late season snow event (but nothing earth shattering) is going to come down to if we have those truly exceptional rates for hours on end. Sell the exceptional rates for hours on end stuff and certainly don’t forecast for it Unless this tickles NW more consolidated 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hey, @qg_omega....change it- Whats he changing.. His name to azzhole 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 25 minutes ago, Hoth said: lol Bastardi. It's similar to 1888 in the way Lena Dunham is "similar" to Heidi Klum. The 1888 blizzard had arctic temperatures. NYC was down to 6F at one point. The city started out as rain. Transitioning to freezing rain and then snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 oh-oh, Mets are playing conservative and for good reason IMHO. The BM track is becoming less likely. Not a perfect capture, stall and stack. Indications leaning toward by the time it does consolidate the SFC center will be at the LAT of BOS, the moisture will have been displaced to the E. so even if the BL cools to support snow it will be of no consequence, also the 40-60mph. gusts from the E toasting the coastal plain. W New England Ctrl NYS parts of the Berks will cash-in on the UL dynamics. Put your horses back in the stalls. This is far from resolved and can change on 6hr intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Sell the exceptional rates for hours on end stuff and certainly don’t forecast for it For now we sell, but it’s silly to completely ignore. There’s enough guidance that shows exceptional rates and the dynamical support aloft. We’ll see today if more guidance trends toward that or toward more mundane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, tavwtby said: more in line with what I have been thinking all along, too many uncertain variables, mainly temps, the lack of a strong high in Quebec is a key, phasing is also key, who knows can always go up, but I'd hedge down if anything right now. Yea its just a first call we wanted to get out there for socials. We'll do a map with exact numbers later tonight, theres just incredible uncertainty right now..the storm has a lot of potential so the ceiling is high. Obviously the better up and in you are the better and Winsted at 1K FT is a great place to be right now. 10 is really the bottom of the range, you have the potential to see 2 feet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Sell the exceptional rates for hours on end stuff and certainly don’t forecast for it Unless this tickles NW more consolidated Of course you will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: My zones have one to three Monday night and 6 to 10 Tuesday and then straight up forecast for snow Tuesday night and part of Wednesday implying the more significant accumulation. I don’t see much of the model output that’s bullish for more than a foot up here as the zones apply but GYX seems pretty bullish actually. They even invoked the 2013 and 2015 storms Yeah Gray wording leaned to the bullish side but they did caveat that the 2013 and 2015 storms had a different antecedent airmass. It's a big difference in the upcoming IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just looked at GFS BUFKIT. PYM area is hammered by winds and wet snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: The 1888 blizzard had arctic temperatures. NYC was down to 6F at one point. The city started out as rain. Transitioning to freezing rain and then snow. Yeah, I mean maybe he said that because this storm does a loop de loop like 1888, but it's a totally different air mass and the system doesn't have that bent back north/south oriented front feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Of course you will I love this board had great time skiing yesterday If the 0z and 18z euro Ensembles looked like their OP I would be on board but both OP’s were on far western envelope . That’s where I stand confidently for now , couldn’t care who likes it or not . Euro has been tickling SE with best dynamics . Still time for changes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 FWIW HRRR would be a crushing for CT, doesn't go out far enough out east.. But probably the same with that look.. But GOD I hate that model.. It's like a bad addiction I can't quit lol EDIT massive deform band forms out in EMASS and rotates through for all of us, wow.. what a weenie run.. only half way through the storm lol with 10-20" in all of western CT.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Just looked at GFS BUFKIT. PYM area is hammered by winds and wet snow. Throw on the hammer pants! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Seems like a lot of cautions being tossed out there this morning....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Yea its just a first call we wanted to get out there for socials. We'll do a map with exact numbers later tonight, theres just incredible uncertainty right now..the storm has a lot of potential so the ceiling is high. Obviously the better up and in you are the better and Winsted at 1K FT is a great place to be right now. 10 is really the bottom of the range, you have the potential to see 2 feet. I'd definitely love that outcome, just haven't felt more than a foot, for reasons I mentioned last post, temps are a big problem, if this can phase in the right location, and rip a hole in the atmosphere maybe we can get some adiabatic cooling to overcome that, but that is a big if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Way too many red flags for CT right now. This disjointed mess could be the ultimate middle finger to all of us here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 52 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: The cashier at the store said that to me last night, she said it would melt faster with the extra hour of daylight. I just said , sure. If you paid cash, I hope you counted your change! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Way too many red flags for CT right now. This disjointed mess could be the ultimate middle finger to all of us here. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: FWIW HRRR would be a crushing for CT, doesn't go out far enough out east.. But probably the same with that look.. But GOD I hate that model.. It's like a bad addiction I can't quit lol Yea. That would be the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yeah, I mean maybe he said that because this storm does a loop de loop like 1888, but it's a totally different air mass and the system doesn't have that bent back north/south oriented front feature. Supposedly the East River froze over and you could walk on it between Manhattan and the Bronx. That’s insane for March. Parts of New York State had 50" + of snow. This is my favorite blizzard and i have a book about it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 GFD Bufkit Cobb for ORH shows how wet the snow will get. The ratios flip wildly depending on rates . GFS has them with 16 final. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I've succumbed to the fact that where I'm at in CT I am most likely to receive maybe 6". Could I get more? ( And there are models that show more where I'm at ) sure, but I think the set up is such that the likely hood is less than stellar of receiving more. If only we had a High to our north........ Still a fun storm to track ( but I am done myself with this Winter ). It has truly been a disappointment as far as Winter goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 Nam crushes ORH 20.2 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Gfs has had the best consistent mid level lift for most of mass for multiple runs in a row as the n stream mid level lows take a perfect slow steady track To crush basically the entirety of the state and then it’s extended in E mass as coastal mid level low/ lift gets into picture later Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Way too many red flags for CT right now. This disjointed mess could be the ultimate middle finger to all of us here. I love that several models show a screw zone right over me, with 10+ over LI...to my due south! 5 years, I'm retired and outa here. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 hours ago, yoda said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 415 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 CTZ003-004-MAZ005-006-012-RIZ001-122115- /O.EXA.KBOX.WS.A.0005.230314T0000Z-230315T1200Z/ Tolland CT-Windham CT-Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA- Southern Worcester MA-Northwest Providence RI- Including the cities of Union, Vernon, Putnam, Willimantic, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Milford, Worcester, Foster, and Smithfield 415 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern and northeastern Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island. * WHEN...From Monday evening through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Heavy wet snow combined with gusty winds could bring down tree branches and result in power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain is expected to change to snow on Tuesday with snow continuing into Tuesday night. Snowfall and impacts will likely vary greatly with elevation. Stingy imho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I guess if anything, it's nice not seeing the HRRR chasing convection...even if it's the extended range of the HRRR. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now