The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:03 PM, Chris12WX said:

Honestly I think a lot of folks are going to be disappointed with this one. We’ve been tracking so long, folks expect a biggie. But there’s just a few things: airmass, inv trough, phasing, etc. where I don’t blame NWS and TV for being conservative. 
Yes there is a chance my hood could get 18”. But if forced to put a forecast put, I’d play it safe with 8-12”.

 

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That seems like a good call for your area

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:03 PM, Chris12WX said:

Honestly I think a lot of folks are going to be disappointed with this one. We’ve been tracking so long, folks expect a biggie. But there’s just a few things: airmass, inv trough, phasing, etc. where I don’t blame NWS and TV for being conservative. 
Yes there is a chance my hood could get 18”. But if forced to put a forecast put, I’d play it safe with 8-12”.

 

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8 to 12 will act bigger than 12 to 18. That's a tree toppler.

[codfishsnowman]

  On 3/12/2023 at 12:44 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Absolutely I just remember 18 when we pounded during the day.

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Wow I think I blocked that one out

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:02 PM, CoastalWx said:

If euro is right. I just have this fear of a semi nam solution which would be mundane. Helps to have the EPS locked, but I think being objective and acknowledging the variables is a good thing. 

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I don’t necessarily disagree. Nothing is locked quite yet. But the NAM is the least of the guidance we should be factoring in 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:05 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There’s potential in his hood for epic blizzard conditions. But there’s a lot of temp issues too to overcome there. 

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Let's hope he can experience 2-3 per hour with 70 mph winds

[512high]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:06 PM, Ginx snewx said:

8 to 12 will act bigger than 12 to 18. That's a tree toppler.

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And where Chris lives in ASH, ALOT of trees....he gets to use the snow blower a second time.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:09 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t necessarily disagree. Nothing is locked quite yet. But the NAM is the least of the guidance we should be factoring in 

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Id prob weight the NAM like 10% right now. It gets more weight once we’re down to about 36h. 

[ineedsnow]

trees around here are going to have a tough time I think 

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:09 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t necessarily disagree. Nothing is locked quite yet. But the NAM is the least of the guidance we should be factoring in 

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It’s not that. This has power house s/w’s. Will the nrn stream cause this to be more of an arc or moisture while I have boundary layer issues? Will this pivot into my hood and stall? Where does it stall? Where it stalls also dictates temps. I’m not writing it off, but at the same time, there are variables to figure out that Are too uncertain. Definitely has potential like Will said. No disagreement. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:11 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Id prob weight the NAM like 10% right now. It gets more weight once we’re down to about 36h. 

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Let’s see what different solution it’ll have here at 12z shortly . You know it won’t be anything like 6z

[Chris12WX]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:06 PM, Ginx snewx said:

8 to 12 will act bigger than 12 to 18. That's a tree toppler.

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I’m not looking forward to it. Went through it in January. December? Can’t remember at this point. 

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:10 PM, 512high said:

And where Chris lives in ASH, ALOT of trees....he gets to use the snow blower a second time.

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As long as the driveway isn’t covered with debris. Lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:14 PM, CoastalWx said:

It’s not that. This has power house s/w’s. Will the nrn stream cause this to be more of an arc or moisture while I have boundary layer issues? Will this pivot into my hood and stall? Where does it stall? Where it stalls also dictates temps. I’m not writing it off, but at the same time, there are variables to figure out that Are too uncertain. Definitely has potential like Will said. No disagreement. 

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Yeah, lot of variables to be ironed out. I get that.

 

The option for a high impact event is on the table though. 6+ of mashed potatoes and wind can cause serious issues 

[Hoth]

  On 3/12/2023 at 12:42 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Lol bastardi at it again! 
 

 

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lol Bastardi. It's similar to 1888 in the way Lena Dunham is "similar" to Heidi Klum.

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:18 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, lot of variables to be ironed out. I get that.

 

The option for a high impact event is on the table though. 6+ of mashed potatoes and wind can cause serious issues 

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For sure. I’m not poo pooing or anything. But I’d feel irresponsible for going balls out right now that’s all. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:12 PM, ineedsnow said:

trees around here are going to have a tough time I think 

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We already had a decent pruning in January.  Hopefully the weak stuff is already down.  

[CoastalWx]

Man bad timing for DST.  

[hudsonvalley21]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:11 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Id prob weight the NAM like 10% right now. It gets more weight once we’re down to about 36h. 

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What NAM would you lean towards, 3 or 12k?

[wxeyeNH]

  On 3/12/2023 at 12:57 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Totals will be lower because we moved the clocks forward an hour.  More sun

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Yes,  this is true but at the same time the days are getting longer.  More time to accumulate

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/12/2023 at 12:59 PM, zeepowderhunter said:

What’s the best place/way to see where potential banding may set up?

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http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/

[Ginx snewx]

Dammit keep forgetting we lost an hour for modeling. Hate it

[CoastalWx]

I mean, would you agree @ORH_wxman? 

[zeepowderhunter]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:24 PM, Ginx snewx said:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/

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Thanks!

[subdude]

  On 3/12/2023 at 12:57 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Totals will be lower because we moved the clocks forward an hour.  More sun

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Longer daylight = less snow. lol

[Whineminster]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:21 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

We already had a decent pruning in January.  Hopefully the weak stuff is already down.  

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That was the worst I've seen in 11 years here. The ice and then heavy snow on top. 

6-10" of glop will be nothing compared to that. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

***The map posted is what we call the 50th percentile forecast (meaning most guidance and outputs lead to this outcome). Keep in mind it is also very possible with this storm that the 25th percentile verifies (cut these numbers in half) or the 75th percentile verifies (double these numbers)***

Here's what we captioned it with.. Let's see where we go from here.. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:32 PM, Whineminster said:

That was the worst I've seen in 11 years here. The ice and then heavy snow on top. 

6-10" of glop will be nothing compared to that. 

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What about the 6-10” on top of the glop?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:28 PM, CoastalWx said:

I mean, would you agree @ORH_wxman? 

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Agree with what? Caution flags there? Yeah I would. Even here I still have caution flags…I think we’re looking pretty good for warning snows, but there’s a big difference between 6-8” and 18”. 
 

I think for places like ORH up to Hubbdave, it’s time to chuck ‘em, but south and east still have more questions to iron out. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:33 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Agree with what? Caution flags there? Yeah I would. Even here I still have caution flags…I think we’re looking pretty good for warning snows, but there’s a big difference between 6-8” and 18”. 
 

I think for places like ORH up to Hubbdave, it’s time to chuck ‘em, but south and east still have more questions to iron out. 

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Yeah pretty much. Dave is locked. Euro and gfs are nice, but not sold on them yet. 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 3/12/2023 at 5:02 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

The UKIE made like 3 attempts to go full GFS in the 18 hours prior to it fully consolidating.  You can see not just the GFS is struggling with the evolution of this

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I'm way behind y'all ... back along the pages of antiquity - but, the difference between these other struggles and the GFS ( I suspect pretty strongly) is that the GFS doesn't struggle.  If given lesser excuse toward a progressivity, including stressing this thing and pulling it apart like the tidal action on comet Shoemaker-Levy the GFS' physics end up in doing so. 

I've mentioned that I have/had yet to include much GFS weight in this thing and I still am not.  This situation - to me - looks really like it is uniquely exposing the GFS flaw/bias toward progressiveness.  

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/12/2023 at 1:20 PM, CoastalWx said:

For sure. I’m not poo pooing or anything. But I’d feel irresponsible for going balls out right now that’s all. 

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Agree its a state of Flux. One lousy nip and it's a flood of sea air. Ray is all in and he put himself out there but it can go to shit in a heart beat.