Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Lol bastardi at it again! 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Accums can be variable this time of year too. Where the sun is hitting this time of year there’s a little bit of “stored” heat in the ground versus the shade. So even if you’re pounding at 32-33° there can be a little melt compaction at the bottom. Then you have the varying surface albedos which can come into effect early on if the sun can “see through” light accums to the sfc or if the rates lessen or clouds thin. Absolutely I just remember 18 when we pounded during the day. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Absolutely I just remember 18 when we pounded during the day. That was a much colder airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I think overall it's just sort of a weird setup with a lot of caution flags. I could see things becoming a bit disjointed here in CT and needing to lower totals. Could you see needing to raise totals as possible? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lexclone Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 27 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Aren't 10:1 clown maps virtually useless in a storm like this? Idk why they're getting so much play here. First time reading this forum? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 When I looped h5 on the 06z euro, I def expected heavier QPF than what it showed. But it was a step down from 00z. It’s going to be a significant storm, but the difference between a HECS type blizzard and a fairly heavy late season snow event (but nothing earth shattering) is going to come down to if we have those truly exceptional rates for hours on end. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Could you see needing to raise totals as possible? Sure anything is possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 What’s the best way to calculate totals in this storm? Is there a ratio to apply? 7:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 15 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Sure anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was a much colder airmass. Not the point we were discussing March albedo. Rates and temps overcome March issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Not the point we were discussing March albedo. Rates and temps overcome March issues. It helps to be in the 20s lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 6z eps pretty similar to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, HinghamBoss said: What’s the best way to calculate totals in this storm? Is there a ratio to apply? 7:1? Probably but it varies where you are. Berks 10 to 12 to 1. Valleys 5 6 to 1 at times. Euro biggest bands are at night and atmosphere is colder. Everything still up in the air IMHO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: When I looped h5 on the 06z euro, I def expected heavier QPF than what it showed. But it was a step down from 00z. It’s going to be a significant storm, but the difference between a HECS type blizzard and a fairly heavy late season snow event (but nothing earth shattering) is going to come down to if we have those truly exceptional rates for hours on end. Even the H7 evolution is nice and keeps the dry slot away. Bit of a strange evolution on the euro with the southern stream going so far offshore before coming back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z eps pretty similar to 00z. You are surprisingly down given the trend in your backyard, especially the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Totals will be lower because we moved the clocks forward an hour. More sun 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: When I looped h5 on the 06z euro, I def expected heavier QPF than what it showed. But it was a step down from 00z. It’s going to be a significant storm, but the difference between a HECS type blizzard and a fairly heavy late season snow event (but nothing earth shattering) is going to come down to if we have those truly exceptional rates for hours on end. We have seen the Euro struggle with qpf before. That run didn't make sense as you said. On to 12Z. Lol This is so much fun. Right up until the bell sounds things are in a total Flux. I could see this getting ugly messaging wise. I can't imagine a foot plus of heavy wet slop damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You are surprisingly down given the trend in your backyard, especially the euro. PTSD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You are surprisingly down given the trend in your backyard, especially the euro. There’s too many variables for my liking to depend on and guidance is not in agreement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Totals will be lower because we moved the clocks forward an hour. More sun There are actually people that believe this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zeepowderhunter Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Probably but it varies where you are. Berks 10 to 12 to 1. Valleys 5 6 to 1 at times. Euro biggest bands are at night and atmosphere is colder. Everything still up in the air IMHO What’s the best place/way to see where potential banding may set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: We have seen the Euro struggle with qpf before. That run didn't make sense as you said. On to 12Z. Lol This is so much fun. Right up until the bell sounds things are in a total Flux. I could see this getting ugly messaging wise. I can't imagine a foot plus of heavy wet slop damage. We had exceptional damage here in the Mar 7-8, 2018 storm which was like a foot of grease. So it’s definitely going to a problem with power issues if we get even 8-12” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: There’s too many variables for my liking to depend on and guidance is not in agreement. You’ve got to be a amped up about gusting 70-80 there . I mean come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 hours ago, George001 said: The crazy thing is models could be underestimating the QPF by quite a bit despite giving many areas 2.5+ inches. With a 970s mb low stalling over the cape I think that will increase. Doubt. Once the upper levels catch the primary and the storm stalls the conveyer belts shit down and the storm weakens. That’s why as the storm drifts away, the QPF is minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Absolutely I just remember 18 when we pounded during the day. Good lord don't remind me. One of the most brutal storms ever. I could travel literally 2 miles in any direction and watch the snow double, then double again. Newport is special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There are actually people that believe this. The cashier at the store said that to me last night, she said it would melt faster with the extra hour of daylight. I just said , sure. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You’ve got to be a amped up about gusting 70-80 there . I mean come on If euro is right. I just have this fear of a semi nam solution which would be mundane. Helps to have the EPS locked, but I think being objective and acknowledging the variables is a good thing. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Honestly I think a lot of folks are going to be disappointed with this one. We’ve been tracking so long, folks expect a biggie. But there’s just a few things: airmass, inv trough, phasing, etc. where I don’t blame NWS and TV for being conservative. Yes there is a chance my hood could get 18”. But if forced to put a forecast put, I’d play it safe with 8-12”. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 12z HRRR could be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You’ve got to be a amped up about gusting 70-80 there There’s potential in his hood for epic blizzard conditions. But there’s a lot of temp issues too to overcome there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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