dendrite Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Concerns I have… dry slot. Ratios. This won’t be 10:1 for a lot of it Mid level goodies are around ALB this run with an arm off of that advecting northward through the region and into NNE. We eventually get slotted, but 800 and below keeps going to town. We just wouldn’t be working with lift in the DGZ. But it’s the extended NAM so we view and move on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Sucks we waste the first half of the system on rain. It could have been an all timer with a better cold source above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: It may be okay ... ...I was mentioning to Ray a bit ago that all the majors ( save the UKMET) seemed a little light on QPF, relative to everything about the way this looks... Part of the warm hesitation inland - I suspect - is related to missing some fall rates in particular, the GGEM/Euro 00zs (I'm tossing the 06 Euro don't see any compelling reason that needs to be included) . But even just 15 or 20% failure to penetrate precipitation mechanics around the NW arc could certainly hesitate that BED-Willamantic zone. Perhaps being closer to core, gets us there without going too far - I have no idea what you just said.....but I think it was optimism about a snowier solution for some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 That nam run is an absolute shellacking anywhere away from li sound (CT focused post) . Just looked at banding products. No dry slot and vertical velocity has intense banding at multiple layers, nw CT up to berks is still best, but dare I say that it looks really great right over the valley too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Sucks we waste the first half of the system on rain. It could have been an all timer with a better cold source above. I don't buy it. I think you flip quickly there. Banding is intense. What's your alt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 maybe the NAM just sucks in the clown range b/c it's feelings are hurt from everyone always talking crap about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: I don't buy it. I think you flip quickly there. Banding is intense. What's your alt 550’ but these typically favor just to my N and NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 My point though is these tracks are rare, the ones where they hook and tuck into sema, so when they do happen…I’d like to capitalize on it. We’ll see if we can trend it a tick cooler. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: This would leave a mark 12-24 with gusts 50-60 mph with pasted trees and lines. Yes please! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Sucks we waste the first half of the system on rain. It could have been an all timer with a better cold source above. If we get 6”+ of absolute paste the rates will be epic .. some guidance is Nemo like .. obviously accumulations won’t be insane like that but for me a day time extremely heavy snow that sticks to everything would be a truly awesome experience. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 550’ but these typically favor just to my N and NW. I can't stop looking at this nam run. It's beautiful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: If we get 6”+ of absolute paste the rates will be epic .. some guidance is Nemo like .. obviously accumulations won’t be insane like that but for me a day time extremely heavy snow that sticks to everything would be a truly awesome experience. No doubt if we can paste bomb this during the day, it’s an awesome look. Should be fun if it pans out. Make no mistake about it, I will enjoy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 Lol RGEM with a 30;spot in ECT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: My point though is these tracks are rare, the ones where they hook and tuck into sema, so when they do happen…I’d like to capitalize on it. We’ll see if we can trend it a tick cooler. Either we are completely ruined from this winter or we do actually know how this works in our area. But, almost every piece of guidance has 12-18 inches for us. The old me would be dancing in the streets. Yet here we are less than 90 hrs out, I don't believe a single one of them. I get it, clown maps are just those clowns, but I am realistically expecting some slush, maybe lucky with a couple inches. Even the new RGEM has 16 inches around here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: I can't stop looking at this nam run. It's beautiful. 7h vertical velocity 850 vertical velocity 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol RGEM with a 30;spot in ECT Every model has shown that potential from the Berks to ORH even to interior RI. There are going to be some mammoth totals wherever those bands set up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol RGEM with a 30;spot in ECT Stripe of 4-6" of qpf in that band...very NEMO like, wish I was up here to experience that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Either we are completely ruined from this winter or we do actually know how this works in our area. But, almost every piece of guidance has 12-18 inches for us. The old me would be dancing in the streets. Yet here we are less than 90 hrs out, I don't believe a single one of them. I get it, clown maps are just those clowns, but I am realistically expecting some slush, maybe lucky with a couple inches. Even the new RGEM has 16 inches around here.... Selling 12-18”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 24 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I have no idea what you just said.....but I think it was optimism about a snowier solution for some. Seriously...what was hard to understand about that - highlight/bold what you don't get and I will reword it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Every model has shown that potential from the Berks to ORH even to interior RI. There are going to be some mammoth totals wherever those bands set up There is no way interior RI is involved. Mid levels far too far north for that. I'd be relatively concerned about a dry slot anywhere river east. I think you get crushed here. Nw CT up to berks and interior CT west of river looks sick. Anthony (? I believe the mets name) is in Burlington CT and I like that location a lot. Mitch where the bodies are buried too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: There is no way interior RI is involved. Mid levels far too far north for that. I'd be relatively concerned about a dry slot anywhere river east. I think you get crushed here. Nw CT up to berks and interior CT west of river looks sick. Anthony (? I believe the mets name) is in Burlington CT and I like that location a lot. Mitch where the bodies are buried too. I would monitor the Messenger tics these last 48 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Rgem was run from ginxy’s basement 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: There is no way interior RI is involved. Mid levels far too far north for that. I'd be relatively concerned about a dry slot anywhere river east. I think you get crushed here. Nw CT up to berks and interior CT west of river looks sick. Anthony (? I believe the mets name) is in Burlington CT and I like that location a lot. Mitch where the bodies are buried too. I would not rule out Foster/Glocester/Burriville area in NW RI, those areas usually do well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Lol icon. Don’t look if you can’t stomach it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Icon has dual low that combines too far E…. Weird run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 A closer look at the 6z gfs shows a top 5 all time storm for Kevin. Rots a band right over the valley. Would be crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: I would not rule out Foster/Glocester/Burriville area in NW RI, those areas usually do well All the banding products I looked at do not look good that far south and east. It's a bit concerning even for orh given whatever the dryslot does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: A closer look at the 6z gfs shows a top 5 all time storm for Kevin. Rots a band right over the valley. Would be crushing. Save a horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: All the banding products I looked at do not look good that far south and east. It's a bit concerning even for orh given whatever the dryslot does. Save a horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: I would not rule out Foster/Glocester/Burriville area in NW RI, those areas usually do well Absolutely Jay doesn't know the climo here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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