Modfan2 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 1:05 PM, CoastalWx said: I think everyone below 600’ needs to be in the meat for good snows. I feel like preliminary Kevin to ORH county look good. Expand Agree, me at 250’ish will not do as well as Ginxy and Kev with elevation on either side of me. Even last weekends slush I had barely a coating, once I got to Pomfret/Woodstock there was 2” and roads were garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Expecting 95% rain here. Maybe some slush at the end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 I'm seeing my goal posts as 3-12. No more, no less. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 1:41 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Expecting 95% rain here. Maybe some slush at the end Expand I may have gotten duped by some of the overnight runs. That's what I'm expecting too, though I'll keep tracking with the outside hope that some of those more eastern ensembles have the better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 1:22 PM, TalcottWx said: White ground maybe Expand Let the wife know house has termites and you gotta move to west side of town at 750’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 I am getting beyond excited!!! Can’t wait to put together a post/forecast. Probably after bruins this afternoon 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 1:49 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Let the wife know house has termites and you gotta move to west side of town at 750’ Expand If you are going to move for snow, it’s 1000’ or bust in my book. Someday I’d love to move up to MPM’s old neighborhood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 1:36 PM, Modfan2 said: Agree, me at 250’ish will not do as well as Ginxy and Kev with elevation on either side of me. Even last weekends slush I had barely a coating, once I got to Pomfret/Woodstock there was 2” and roads were garbage. Expand Obviously it’s still fluid and small changes will make a big difference yada yada, but with big qpf, a rapidly intensifying low, and what’s effectively a stall at our latitude—all forecasted to begin taking shape in approximately 48 hours—there is absolutely no excuse for this not to be a widespread 12+ big dog snow for interior SNE. No, 1888 or 2013 aren’t walking through the door, and given the mediocre antecedent airmass I’m dubious of widespread 18+, but if this somehow turned into a widespread 4-8, 6-10, 8-12 type deal then it is an abject failure and unequivocally the crown jewel of one of the worst winters in recorded history relative to its potential. No excuses away from the coast if this doesn’t cut like 12z envisioned yesterday. None. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 1:33 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah even elbow is ok. I don’t want or expect a jack. Just hoping for a fun event. Expand Book a room at Great Wolf Lodge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 1:59 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Book a room at Great Wolf Lodge. Expand Hang out in outdoor hot tub? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 1:57 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Obviously it’s still fluid and small changes will make a big difference yada yada, but with big qpf, a rapidly intensifying low, and what’s effectively a stall at our latitude—all forecasted to begin taking shape in approximately 48 hours—there is absolutely no excuse for this not to be a widespread 12+ big dog snow for interior SNE. No, 1888 or 2013 aren’t walking through the door, and given the mediocre antecedent airmass I’m dubious of widespread 18+, but if this somehow turned into a widespread 4-8, 6-10, 8-12 type deal then it is an abject failure and unequivocally the crown jewel of one of the worst winters in recorded history relative to its potential. No excuses away from the coast if this doesn’t cut like 12z envisioned yesterday. None. Expand This is what I feel too..100% agree! That was what I was trying to imply to Spanks earlier…but I didn’t do as good a job explaining like you just did. Nice job with that explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 1:55 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: If you are going to move for snow, it’s 1000’ or bust in my book. Someday I’d love to move up to MPM’s old neighborhood. Expand In your area, Rowe mass at 1500-1800’ is another level above MPM’s old area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 2:01 PM, CoastalWx said: Hang out in outdoor hot tub? Expand The the snow stack on your head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 nam looks a bit more progressive with the northern energy could be a nod to the gfs here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 2:04 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: In your area, Rowe mass at 1500-1800’ is another level above MPM’s old area Expand Ya’ but I prefer not to be 45 minutes from the closest store. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 6:15 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Better run, but struggling to get precip into my area....WTF Expand I noticed this about all the majors ( save for the UKMET ...which is questionable whether it's JV or V in my mind, to use Will's humor) overnight. (I'm way back here on page 85, so may ensue responses to moot points for the next 1/2 hour LOL!) Anyway, both the GGEM and the Euro, with their nearly collocated solutions ( save for petty differences in pressure depth and anal retentive lat/lon anchoring that wouldn't matter) were both interestingly less in QPF penetrating into the deeper interior, considering synoptic awareness with straight climatology. Part of that synopsis requires noting the PWAT distribution - getting a little more detailed. It almost smack as though the GGEM and Euro's bomogenesis pulled the field metrics, inward - Mainly discussing the 00z/blend of those two... The GFS I did not include wholesale, and really haven't yet - I do not believe at this time, nor have I from the beginning, that this is a scenario that fits the GFS machinery and thus could not be trusted. The 06z finally appears to erode its bias dimming enough to shine through a beam of reality light. I think a slower pattern with blocking this, and lower isohypses ( height line ) counts ( signaling "relaxed flow"), while still embedding S/W with enough mechanics to power cyclogenesis, is exactly where the GFS exposes it is worse than the Euro - it's physics just add velcoity to the flow... There's a dissertation's worth of discussing details that could be rendered for this things ... best just to piecemeal it for the Twitterspheric attention span of 2023, however ... haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 6:21 AM, ORH_wxman said: Crushage. Details still TBD but that was a very good 00z suite. If we can repeat something similar at 12z, then I may start honking. Expand Again.. still back here on page 86 ... But may I just comment to this (bold) notion ? I've been thinking about this performance-wise with the guidance this year. It seems they have been worse overall. This has not lent to "honking" ( haha) at a 96 hour range. Personally, ...I have honked at 120 and been successful for my praises, more so than failed to promote my own reputation ( to put it nicely) in the past. Not. This. Year. I just wonder if some that reticence to commit to an idea at 84 hours out ( I mean c'mon, right?) is recent conditioning by relentlessly shaky performance; a bit short compared and more like 20 years ago modeling standards. Incidentally, we are right in the window when March 2001, the ( at the time ) AVN version of the MRF ( the genetic background of the GFS) pulled the plug on the Mid Atlantic. Has anyone noticed how the snow fall layout with this is kind of trying to mimic that March 2001 result ( modeled) ? It seems to want to lay down a W-E glacier that steps up abruptly from the S coast to interior sections, much in the way that one did. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 2:26 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Again.. still back here on page 86 ... But may I just comment to this (bold) notion ? I've been thinking about this performance-wise with the guidance this year. It seems they have been worse overall. This has not lent to "honking" ( haha) at a 96 hour range. Personally, ...I have honked at 120 and been successful for my praises, more so than failed to promote my own reputation ( to put it nicely) in the past. Not. This. Year. I just wonder if some that reticence to commit to an idea at 84 hours out ( I mean c'mon, right?) is recent conditioning by relentlessly shaky performance; a bit short compared and more like 20 years ago modeling standards. Incidentally, we are right in the window when March 2001, the ( at the time ) AVN version of the MRF ( the genetic background of the GFS) pulled the plug on the Mid Atlantic. Has anyone noticed how the snow fall layout with this is kind of trying to mimic that March 2001 result ( modeled) ? It seems to want to lay down a W-E glacier that steps up abruptly from the S coast to interior sections, much in the way that one did. Interesting... Expand Yea…I’ve been thinking this has a 3/01 look to it, but a little warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Nam is pretty amped again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Looks like it will be ESE of 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Minus the not totally saturated this is beautiful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 NAM caving as expected 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 2:40 PM, CoastalWx said: Looks like it will be ESE of 6z Expand Wound be almost perfect if we could get that upper low about another 50-100 miles SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 This is probably going to be my biggest fear with this system and something that is going to make forecasting totals extremely difficult. Double band structure. Maybe there could be a scenario where the two converge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 1:47 PM, SouthCoastMA said: I may have gotten duped by some of the overnight runs. That's what I'm expecting too, though I'll keep tracking with the outside hope that some of those more eastern ensembles have the better idea. Expand Yeah I took the cheese. ain’t happening here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 2:40 PM, qg_omega said: NAM caving as expected Expand This winter is garbage 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 2:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: Wound be almost perfect if we could get that upper low about another 50-100 miles SE. Expand Yeah quick dump and then it unravels. Would be nice to move that SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Concerns I have… dry slot. Ratios. This won’t be 10:1 for a lot of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 This would leave a mark 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 2:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: Wound be almost perfect if we could get that upper low about another 50-100 miles SE. Expand It may be okay ... ...I was mentioning to Ray a bit ago that all the 00z majors ( save the UKMET) seemed a little light on QPF, relative to everything about the way this looks... Part of the warm hesitation inland - I suspect - is related to missing some fall rates in particular, the GGEM/Euro 00zs (I'm tossing the 06 Euro don't see any compelling reason that needs to be included) . But even just 15 or 20% failure to penetrate precipitation mechanics around the NW arc could certainly hesitate finding that -0C isothermic profile in the BED-Willamantic zone. Perhaps being closer to core, gets us there without going too far - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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