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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2023 at 11:27 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe with more of NE flow the shadow won’t be as profound. It’s those deep easterly fetches that hurt the valley 

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I have no choice but to hedge a little more conservative imby. A slight shift with more easterly action and I slot badly. 

Not saying I expect that, but I know my climo lol. Fantastic trend overnight though. You never know for certain how things will go, but I was with you yesterday when 12z wanted to plow west. 

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Because heavy snow is the only thing in this world that still affords me the opportunity to experience the very same youthful exuberance that I did as a child. So few adults in this world have somethi

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb
RUNNAWAYICEBERG
RUNNAWAYICEBERG

I never thought I’d hear that less tugs, on a friday night, was a good thing. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2023 at 11:37 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

I have no choice but to hedge a little more conservative imby. A slight shift with more easterly action and I slot badly. 

Not saying I expect that, but I know my climo lol. Fantastic trend overnight though. You never know for certain how things will go, but I was with you yesterday when 12z wanted to plow west. 

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Certainly hoping that everyone here gets a man beast storm. Even Ryan 

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CTSkywarn

CTSkywarn

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2023 at 9:40 AM, The 4 Seasons said:
OKX wants no parts of this right now, just read their am AFD and the zones for interior southern CT are all rain, not even a mention of snow. Certainly possible but i wouldn't leave out any snow in the forecast, at least go a rain/snow mix at this point. Theyve been on this train though, yesterday they mentioned even if this takes a perfect track right over the BM it would be all rain due to the lack of cold air. Not buying that.
In terms of precip accumulations, liquid equivalents of nearly 1.25 -2" are possible for the event per latest NBM. However, probabilitiesof >1" in any 6 hour period during the event are less than 10%,indicating low potential for any excessive rainfall issues.Moreover, NBM probabilities of >2" of snowfall (approaching advisorycriteria) are maxed out at about 15-25% across the LoHud and SW CT,and less than 10% for NYC, Long Island, northeast NJ and coastal CT.These values have been similar over the past few NBM cycles.

Yeah, so I'd have to say It's game over for coastal CT. I've never seen OKX wrong, when they have a strong conviction like that. If I remember correctly in Dec, 92, the southern quarter of CT was all rain....when interior half was all snow. If the gradient is similar, maybe they will be right.

Sent from my motorola one 5G ace using Tapatalk

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2023 at 9:40 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

OKX wants no parts of this right now, just read their am AFD and the zones for interior southern CT are all rain, not even a mention of snow. Certainly possible but i wouldn't leave out any snow in the forecast, at least go a rain/snow mix at this point. Theyve been on this train though, yesterday they mentioned even if this takes a perfect track right over the BM it would be all rain due to the lack of cold air. Not buying that. 

In terms of precip accumulations, liquid equivalents of nearly 1.25 -
2" are possible for the event per latest NBM. However, probabilities
of >1" in any 6 hour period during the event are less than 10%,
indicating low potential for any excessive rainfall issues.
Moreover, NBM probabilities of >2" of snowfall (approaching advisory
criteria) are maxed out at about 15-25% across the LoHud and SW CT,
and less than 10% for NYC, Long Island, northeast NJ and coastal CT.
These values have been similar over the past few NBM cycles.
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Perfect. We know their stored history of forecasting big events…

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2023 at 11:46 AM, Hoth said:

Oh my. Would feel better with some decent cold around, but what a beast that is.

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If last night was a preview of what is coming early next week with regards to lack of cold air, then elevation will be key. Obviously intensity will aid in some of the cooling and i am sure everyone will see some flakes. Here, during heavier echos I dipped to 32.4⁰, lighter echos bounced me right back up to 33.5⁰. Classic March snowfall, unless of course there is cold air around.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2023 at 11:58 AM, Spanks45 said:

If last night was a preview of what is coming early next week with regards to lack of cold air, then elevation will be key. Obviously intensity will aid in some of the cooling and i am sure everyone will see some flakes. Here, during heavier echos I dipped to 32.4⁰, lighter echos bounced me right back up to 33.5⁰. Classic March snowfall, unless of course there is cold air around.

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I think you’re fine if the modeling from 0z is any indication. This bombing if verified as a lot of the modeling at 0z showed, is lights out for all away from the immediate coast. Last night is a joke compared to what’s being depicted currently. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2023 at 12:00 PM, CTSkywarn said:

That 41" is right over my turf! I hope OKX is wrong this time.

Sent from my motorola one 5G ace using Tapatalk
 

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Wrong this time….they’re wrong on big events more than they’re right lol. If modeling holds through 12z…they’ll change their tune. They’re waiting. 

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2023 at 11:58 AM, Spanks45 said:

If last night was a preview of what is coming early next week with regards to lack of cold air, then elevation will be key. Obviously intensity will aid in some of the cooling and i am sure everyone will see some flakes. Here, during heavier echos I dipped to 32.4⁰, lighter echos bounced me right back up to 33.5⁰. Classic March snowfall, unless of course there is cold air around.

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Just hoping we can get under some really good dynamics. I'd offer my left nut, but I already sacrificed it for Feb '13. Can't offer up the other or I'll look like Lord Varys.

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Kitz Craver

Kitz Craver

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2023 at 9:40 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

OKX wants no parts of this right now, just read their am AFD and the zones for interior southern CT are all rain, not even a mention of snow. Certainly possible but i wouldn't leave out any snow in the forecast, at least go a rain/snow mix at this point. Theyve been on this train though, yesterday they mentioned even if this takes a perfect track right over the BM it would be all rain due to the lack of cold air. Not buying that. 

In terms of precip accumulations, liquid equivalents of nearly 1.25 -
2" are possible for the event per latest NBM. However, probabilities
of >1" in any 6 hour period during the event are less than 10%,
indicating low potential for any excessive rainfall issues.
Moreover, NBM probabilities of >2" of snowfall (approaching advisory
criteria) are maxed out at about 15-25% across the LoHud and SW CT,
and less than 10% for NYC, Long Island, northeast NJ and coastal CT.
These values have been similar over the past few NBM cycles.
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Sell

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2023 at 12:01 PM, WinterWolf said:

I think you’re fine if the modeling from 0z is any indication. This bombing if verified as a lot of the modeling at 0z showed, is lights out for all away from the immediate coast. Last night is a joke compared to what’s being depicted currently. 

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Certainly, different beast for sure. We are going to need those rates and hopefully some nighttime snowfall to aid in maximizing snowfall accumulations. 

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Kitz Craver

Kitz Craver

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2023 at 11:58 AM, Spanks45 said:

If last night was a preview of what is coming early next week with regards to lack of cold air, then elevation will be key. Obviously intensity will aid in some of the cooling and i am sure everyone will see some flakes. Here, during heavier echos I dipped to 32.4⁰, lighter echos bounced me right back up to 33.5⁰. Classic March snowfall, unless of course there is cold air around.

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I disagree. They are not comparable, intensity is everything with these marginal set ups. Completely different animal

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