The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS stalls east of the elbow. 

Somewhere a bald emaciated man has been heard for days saying that 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Somewhere a bald emaciated man has been heard for days saying that 

Good morning sunshine!!!

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/first-call-for-major-protracted-winter.html

I agree except that 8-12” should extend down the valley in CT

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Good morning sunshine!!!

Poundmetown 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6z Op Gfs basically mimics euro ens

now don’t tick anymore next 72 hours and we are golden ....can’t afford anything more progressive at that angle of backing in 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Poundmetown 

You gonna get nailed

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

You gonna get nailed

Still a lot of time . But all the ens clustering near elbow last several days meant to stay the course and toss op runs was the way to think 

[Modfan2]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Poundmetown 

I think you will do well and elevation will help, I am having a hard time seeing 10+ here (250’ el) in my valley location.

[moneypitmike]

 

Congrats Hunter.

[SouthCoastMA]

damn GFS..trying to suck me back in

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I agree except that 8-12” should extend down the valley in CT

Downslope will be worse off of ORH hills.

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

6z Op Gfs basically mimics euro ens

now don’t tick anymore next 72 hours and we are golden ....can’t afford anything more progressive at that angle of backing in 

A more amped solution wouldn't surprise me. GFS trending stronger with the SE Canada ridge which has been a staple over the past few years. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, wxsniss said:

For QPF mean, note this is 24hr so some far west QPF is cut off:

 

Man, 1' on a mean is nuts...granted I'm not getting 10:1, but still...

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Downslope will be worse off of ORH hills.

Look at CT valley totals in CT Dec 92 , Morch firehose .. other biggies with strong east flow 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at CT valley totals in CT Dec 92 , Morch firehose .. other biggies with strong east flow 

Its just a first call....but I also feel like intense H7 fronto may offset some the downslope down there. Look at the CTRV in Feb 2001...nuking mid levels can remedy alot of atmospheric short comings.

[CoastalWx]

Quite the shift on the gfs 

[SouthCoastMA]

ICON goes pretty far SE before tucking back in. 

[SouthCoastMA]

GEFS still has two camps, one cluster south of RI/BBay and the others east of Cape 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

GEFS still has two camps, one cluster south of RI/BBay and the others east of Cape 

Some crushers , some whiffs 

[Roger Smith]

That GFS depiction looks extreme for wind gust potential across southeast MA, 90 mph, and thermals look good for all snow anywhere north and west of a BOS to s/c RI line. If that verified would expect 25-35 inch snowfall potential ORH to ne CT, frequent thundersnow. Obs around BOS would be the whole catalogue of precip types before it went over to all snow after the loop. 974 mb is fairly low but I was more taken by the rate of deepening as it approaches, if it was steady state then 70 mph, but that deepening is epic. I also noted that the GEM produced a lower 500 mb height at capture. Let's say that was also correct then this GFS depiction could become more extreme. 

This would only be a rainer if it (a) moved inland over LI and CT and (b) the dynamics stayed modest enough to prevent high precip rates. Some model runs we saw earlier were like that but now it seems to be swinging to an extreme storm scenario. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Congrats Hunter.

Horrible for many 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

15 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Horrible for many 

Looking forward to evening when WPC has their Snow probs for different accumulation thresholds thru 18z and then Wednesday 0z . 

They like Catskills /dacks / Berks / S Vt into whites thru 12z Tuesday for greater than 6”(>50% probs)

with 50% probs for 2”> On a line Manch to Wa wa to Torrington CT Nw. Albeit that is very early in period for areas E given the later start time on most overnite guidance 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

That GFS depiction looks extreme for wind gust potential across southeast MA, 90 mph, and thermals look good for all snow anywhere north and west of a BOS to s/c RI line. If that verified would expect 25-35 inch snowfall potential ORH to ne CT, frequent thundersnow. Obs around BOS would be the whole catalogue of precip types before it went over to all snow after the loop. 974 mb is fairly low but I was more taken by the rate of deepening as it approaches, if it was steady state then 70 mph, but that deepening is epic. I also noted that the GEM produced a lower 500 mb height at capture. Let's say that was also correct then this GFS depiction could become more extreme. 

This would only be a rainer if it (a) moved inland over LI and CT and (b) the dynamics stayed modest enough to prevent high precip rates. Some model runs we saw earlier were like that but now it seems to be swinging to an extreme storm scenario. 

You could easily envision 125mph gusts for all of E MA

[SouthCoastMA]

Euro over 2.5", GFS is over 3" precip, CMC over 4" in EMA. lot of that is wasted here, but it got a lot more interesting overnight. Models continue to be variable with the subtle interaction/timing between the S/N stream, and we'll probably see things shifting around for next day or two. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its just a first call....but I also feel like intense H7 fronto may offset some the downslope down there. Look at the CTRV in Feb 2001...nuking mid levels can remedy alot of atmospheric short comings.

We pray. 

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looking forward to evening when WPC has their Snow probs for different accumulation thresholds thru 18z and then Wednesday 0z . 

They like Catskills /dacks / Berks / S Vt into whites thru 12z Tuesday for greater than 6”(>50% probs)

with 50% probs for 2”> On a line Manch to Wa wa to Torrington CT Nw. Albeit that is very early in period for areas E given the later start time on most overnite guidance 

The models have consistently had a horrible Connecticut valley like downsloping signal from Plymouth New Hampshire, straight down towards Southern New Hampshire. I have a feeling it has to do with the wind direction due to the angle of approach of the storm. Brian will know.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

We pray. 

Maybe with more of NE flow the shadow won’t be as profound. It’s those deep easterly fetches that hurt the valley 

[Johnno]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

We pray. 

Feb 2001 was right there with 2013 here for rates and most fell during the daytime, what a great storm 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The models have consistently had a horrible Connecticut valley like downsloping signal from Plymouth New Hampshire, straight down towards Southern New Hampshire. I have a feeling it has to do with the wind direction due to the angle of approach of the storm. Brian will know.

WPC also uses a decent amount of continuity 

the models had the low mostly moving NNE/NE off Carolinas and up the coast for days and now the hook and shoot north has seemed to taken favor overnite , the angle is extremely delicate  And those that are East of the Monday nite N stream sort of convergence modeled over Catskills / dacks and Berks to w monads seem to me increasingly dependent on a perfect hook and ladder track with intensity . 
 

There is a ton of uncertainty when your Counting on a wide right then hook back NNW track. So if that idea gains consensus today, counter intuitively  I think there is about as high uncertainty for a forecast at day 2.5-3 as you can get , especially given temps and reliance on big lift And any further progressive ticks can = CCB in Boston harbor or over outer cape 

Now If the southern stream ticks North and gets a tad earlier phase and less wide right track I think that cooks eastern areas inside 495 but also would lead to more confidence because the track would be a bit more traditional and not subject to huge cuts if a hook and ladder were to go wider from here 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/first-call-for-major-protracted-winter.html

Wow 9 to 15 for us south CT coasties!