The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Hopefully we can hold some semblance of this look and the east trend doesn’t continue 

It’s been all over the place…it was a west trend all day, then it stopped, and reversed. It’s been everywhere lol. Last night at this time it looked very good too, now it’s back again. Getting closer now, and the big storm idea looks to be there. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Luke, that was a fabulous run. I realize your west of me…but that was a region wide blizzard. Youll never know exactly where the exact banding sets up…central areas, or west or east, but verbatim it’s excellent. 

It's a qpf monster. If we could tick it 1C cooler and flip to snow sooner....oh boy. 

[wxsniss]

After so many rug pulls this winter, it's hard to believe this is within 96 hours

Still a relatively fragile setup but great to see some consensus emerge tonight. I would not be shocked to see this trend a bit further southeast if sampling of the southern stream Saturday proves it to be more stout

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, wxsniss said:

After so many rug pulls this winter, it's hard to believe this is within 96 hours

Still a relatively fragile setup but great to see some consensus emerge tonight. I would not be shocked to see this trend a bit further southeast if sampling of the southern stream Saturday proves it to be more stout

The Euro could definitely be wrong trying to be too SRN stream involved for sure...its done that before when the CMC/GFS are trying to say the NRN stream will be more of an issue 

[DavisStraight]

It's has me at about 30 inches so it will probably change, regardless should be good for most of us and glad I got my snowblower running.

[CoastalWx]

The euro nukes the mid levels to the SE. that’s what you want to see I think Boston area could use another tick SE, but better 00z runs for sure. 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It's a qpf monster. If we could tick it 1C cooler and flip to snow sooner....oh boy. 

It Could happen. Liking what I’m seeing though at the moment. 

[wxsniss]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro could definitely be wrong trying to be too SRN stream involved for sure...its done that before when the CMC/GFS are trying to say the NRN stream will be more of an issue 

Euro definitely could be wrong. But the trend towards a more eastern solution over 12z-18z-0z today makes me think improved sampling of NRN stream (which is now mostly over land) played a role. SRN stream I believe will be fully sampled over land Saturday, so we'll see how the 12z suite plays out tomorrow. IF SRN stream samples more robust, I think there's potential for more southeast tics.

In any case, good to see the whiffs are completely off the table tonight.

[CoastalWx]

EPS stalls east of the elbow. 

[CoastalWx]

Closes off H7 islands to the elbow on east. 
 

Let’s hope these hold at 12z.

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS stalls east of the elbow. 

Wow..nice. 

[wxsniss]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS stalls east of the elbow. 

Contrast to 12z when most members went inland:

0z 90hr:

0z 96hr:

Several 966 members in there.

[Henry's Weather]

Anyone got the QPF mean?

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro nukes the mid levels to the SE. that’s what you want to see I think Boston area could use another tick SE, but better 00z runs for sure. 

I don't want it further south...I'm already on the edge of LBS.

[wxsniss]

13 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Anyone got the QPF mean?

For QPF mean, note this is 24hr so some far west QPF is cut off:

 

[ineedsnow]

0z runs were great hope that continues.. 

[TalcottWx]

3 hours ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

Lol - it’s called watching every meteo saying the same thing.   So it’s this forum vs those that forecast for a living 

JoeBlow

[ineedsnow]

sref plumes should be fun to look at later today.. 

[TalcottWx]

Just caught up. Awesome times ahead. 

[Henry's Weather]

Storm is on east coast at 48 hours, she's coming.

[Henry's Weather]

Should be an interesting 06z NAM

[Henry's Weather]

Right up the gullet! Goodnight

[Henry's Weather]

Still certainly within realm of possibility

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Still certainly within realm of possibility

moved east a bit though.. highly doubtful but who knows

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Woke up to use bathroom lol . Had to check models . I’m pretty certain , This is really Still up in the air .

Its clear the lead S vort has kept trending a bit SE for last 24 hours and I haven’t seen and end to that completely at 6z , this has also led to a later start across most guidance for those EOR.
 

Most of this season things have not been nailed down and locked at 72 hours and I don’t see this as being any different.  I think a (>980 MSLP) N stream dominant system is likely in the cards or more of a too late phase , this is simply due to the trend in S stream that I would hedge continues . 

If that trend ends then I could see a 0z euro solution that is favorable for a good deal of the forum but that is a thread the needle type of set up, *especially given the airmass and BL temps , but certainly can occur .
 

I would Think least likely at this juncture is a reversal of S stream trend in a significant fashion 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/first-call-for-major-protracted-winter.html

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/first-call-for-major-protracted-winter.html

jesus (ct)

id give my left nut for 1-2 feet

[Modfan2]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/first-call-for-major-protracted-winter.html

Go big or go home!

[The 4 Seasons]

OKX wants no parts of this right now, just read their am AFD and the zones for interior southern CT are all rain, not even a mention of snow. Certainly possible but i wouldn't leave out any snow in the forecast, at least go a rain/snow mix at this point. Theyve been on this train though, yesterday they mentioned even if this takes a perfect track right over the BM it would be all rain due to the lack of cold air. Not buying that.

In terms of precip accumulations, liquid equivalents of nearly 1.25 -
2" are possible for the event per latest NBM. However, probabilities
of >1" in any 6 hour period during the event are less than 10%,
indicating low potential for any excessive rainfall issues.
Moreover, NBM probabilities of >2" of snowfall (approaching advisory
criteria) are maxed out at about 15-25% across the LoHud and SW CT,
and less than 10% for NYC, Long Island, northeast NJ and coastal CT.
These values have been similar over the past few NBM cycles.

[TheSnowman]

2 hours ago, wxsniss said:

 

You guys are cute.  
 

OMG!!  CRUSHER!!  It’s a KU!!  DAMAGE!!  PERFECT RUN!!

Final Output: 10”  

Ray Call: 10”  

 

This winter has really Really Screwed with you guys.  ONLY Ever use those words for Widespread 24”-40” Storms like 1996, 1997, 2005, 2013, and 2015.  Not a Moderate R/S infected storm.