Jaguars Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 18z gfs sucked for me not surprised . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I don’t know…All these different runs look pretty decent here…WOR in a decent spot right now. This is in that weird stage now. Similarly two days ago, there was zero precip coming tonight from this first one, and I was told it was dead-and gone from pros on here. Now somehow, GFS HAS almost .8” coming. likewise This one is far from figured out, just like tonight’s was deemed dead on arrival too. Now look…. We’re probably not going to get the one despite last night’s euro and uk runs that were partying with Ronnie but we could still squeeze and decent storm. Still some shifty shifting going on, nobody should be locking anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We’re probably not going to get the one despite last night’s euro and uk runs that were partying with Ronnie but we could still squeeze and decent storm. Still some shifty shifting going on, nobody should be locking anything. Agreed Luke. But I wouldn’t go as far as saying this can’t be very big either at this juncture. Lots to be figured out here, and the flipping out and all is way to premature imo with at least 72 hours to go…haven’t we learned anything after all these yrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, Jaguars said: 18z gfs sucked for me not surprised . In Jacksonville? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, Jaguars said: 18z gfs sucked for me not surprised . Did Yellowstone erupt? Probably about the only thing that would provide Jacksonville with a coastal snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Agreed Luke. But I wouldn’t go as far as saying this can’t be very big either at this juncture. Lots to be figured out here, and the flipping out and all is way to premature imo with at least 72 hours to go…haven’t we learned anything after all these yrs? Thermals are too marginal to think “the one” but if we get lucky, it’s possible. Wish the 0z euro/uk can make a comeback over the next 72hrs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Oh this is a discerned difference in the total wave space handling across the hemisphere on the 18z run. It's effecting the evolution of this thing toward an entirely new direction - or attempting to. The vortex is moving along a trajectory now that is more akin this thing tonight and tomorrow - hints at doing that. It moves WNW to ESE straight over the area, looks really nothing like the 12 run that "fishing gaffed" negative tilted slice, which gave the total wave space down ---> up latitude positioning. Not sure what to make of it all - but it's new type of evolution coast to coast.. The western ridge is flatter ...deceptively so, and is more progressive... It's like this run decided it couldn't stand it and went running back to it's stretching bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thermals are too marginal to think “the one” but if we get lucky, it’s possible. Wish the 0z euro/uk can make a comeback over the next 72hrs lol. That’s very possible…but even if it doesn’t, we don’t need the 1%er right now, just a good storm will due. And that’s still very possible. At least we’re tracking…that’s the way I see it currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thermals are too marginal to think “the one” but if we get lucky, it’s possible. Wish the 0z euro/uk can make a comeback over the next 72hrs lol. If the past is any indication. The east tics continue from here on out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Euro Para 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: If the past is any indication. The east tics continue from here on out . Problem is we’ve had no “East ticks” all season, not expecting any this time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If the past is any indication. The east tics continue from here on out . That would be ideal, without losing dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Occluded leftovers here on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Some should be more concerned with north and west tics, That’s been the seasonal trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That’s a nice look, low over the elbow. Hopefully 0z guidance moves back east after running the low inland today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Interesting look to ensemble sensitivity - top variance is surface low strength followed by location. The location is very much tied to the relative strengths of the northern and southern streams. Looking for a coherent feature to track back, you kind of lose it around 24 to 36 hours. So there may still be some time before this is locked. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, George001 said: That’s a nice look, low over the elbow. Hopefully 0z guidance moves back east after running the low inland today. That Para might make quite a few more peeps happy in E areas if that solution prevailed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 A lot of storms were not locked in this year even at the 24-36 hr mark, This ones even more complex so I wouldn’t expect anything different this go round. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: Some should be more concerned with north and west tics, That’s been the seasonal trend. OH I'm sureppl are concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: That Para might make quite a few more peeps happy in E areas if that solution prevailed. Sorry... I know there used to be the GFS Para.... Was shite.... What about the Euro Para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: Sorry... I know there used to be the GFS Para.... Was shite.... What about the Euro Para? Not familiar with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Interesting look to ensemble sensitivity - top variance is surface low strength followed by location. The location is very much tied to the relative strengths of the northern and southern streams. Looking for a coherent feature to track back, you kind of lose it around 24 to 36 hours. So there may still be some time before this is locked. On all of the runs that were crushing my area around 495 (and other interior SNE folks east of the river), the southern stream was stronger so it was the focal point of baroclinicity even up at the 850 level. The trend today was decidedly weaker with that southern stream vort and the northern stream decided to slice in a bit quicker too…so it was forcing the baroclinic zone further NW, and we saw that with that shape of the sfc low too looking almost like an IVT extending into SE NY. Mid-levels responded too with a more SE flow look whereas those runs with the southern stream being stronger and making the wider turn, the midlevel flow was turning more out of the east quicker which of course shuts off the WAA faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Sorry... I know there used to be the GFS Para.... Was shite.... What about the Euro Para? The gfs para you’re referring to is the gfs now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 The para is showing the next upgrade and seeing shown or if it’s ready for prime time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: On all of the runs that were crushing my area around 495 (and other interior SNE folks east of the river), the southern stream was stronger so it was the focal point of baroclinicity even up at the 850 level. The trend today was decidedly weaker with that southern stream vort and the northern stream decided to slice in a bit quicker too…so it was forcing the baroclinic zone further NW, and we saw that with that shape of the sfc low too looking almost like an IVT extending into SE NY. Mid-levels responded too with a more SE flow look whereas those runs with the southern stream being stronger and making the wider turn, the midlevel flow was turning more out of the east quicker which of course shuts off the WAA faster. Modeling is kind of a mess with that too. It's a firehose of vorticity from the Pac north of Hawaii. Euro uses one to pump the PNA up enough to the let the northern stream dig, while the GFS focuses on a wave that's a little too late to do the same. We should be chucking dropsondes from the JFK non stop to HNL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hope the whole phase fails, at this point. I'd laugh my tits off at NYS guys in my FB group Ski resorts need the snow. Take a ride up to the Greens, cut a few tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Appears the flow with that southern stream vort is almost E/ESE between Alabama/Georgia / and S Carolina coast ..energy just sort of dives in That direction and doesn’t link up as well , is there less ridging modeled ahead of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 18z euro is quite different bs 12z. No sign of tug. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 18z Euro looked like it had a weaker northern stream... not as much tug at hour 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now