Connecticut Appleman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, tavwtby said: I think the fact we are now ~5 days from go and it's still relatively been steadfast across all suites is a plus this season... just hold serve and I believe most on the forum will cash in on something I hope this does hold serve and I finally get a larger storm out here in NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTBFFH1905 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, tavwtby said: just hope it holds, I have more confidence in this than anything else this winter, I can say that Same here. It is looking more an more promising. Would be nice to ski at Sundown on some actual real snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, KTBFFH1905 said: Same here. It is looking more an more promising. Would be nice to ski at Sundown on some actual real snow How have they held up this season? Must be a little tough for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: As we get closer, we could probably really start focusing on the potential for dynamic cooling to negate a subpar initial airmass. In these solutions were seeing airmass wouldn't be a huge concern as the degree of dynamic cooling would probably be pretty significant. Thanks bud. 18” of mash is better than 24” of fluff anyway, especially in mid march. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Focusing on just the southern stream here, but I wonder if one big key is how convective active it becomes along and ahead of the front Saturday and Sunday within the Tennessee Valley/Southeast. Both GFS and Euro are quite active, however, the Euro is more robust. Looks like with this more robust activity and a stronger southern vort. it helps to pump up heights off the EC and leads to the better phase interaction between the two streams with better digging of the northern vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: How have they held up this season? Must be a little tough for sure They've held up well considering the winter we've had. But yeah, would be nice to get a dumping of real snow on the trails. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSnowBOS Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 This is a rain storm east of 495 and all coastal areas. No cold and a tucked track. Even a non-tucked track it would take perfect scenario. I am fully onto Winter 2023-2024 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, JoeSnowBOS said: This is a rain storm east of 495 and all coastal areas. No cold and a tucked track. Even a non-tucked track it would take perfect scenario. I am fully onto Winter 2023-2024 Noted for the record. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I'm really hoping that this one pans out for us and southern New England, actually across all of New England. This may be our last shot of a major storm for the season. Not saying much in the pipeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Excellent move....now lets get rid of that straggler over Torrington, CT On a bender in T-town 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Deepening on how model runs go over next 48 hours you may want to do some wellness checks on fellow wx weenies in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSnowBOS Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Noted for the record. So what are you expecting for east of 495/ east/south east New England? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, JoeSnowBOS said: So what are you expecting for east of 495/ east/south east New England? We really don’t know yet . Let’s get it to day 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, JoeSnowBOS said: So what are you expecting for east of 495/ east/south east New England? East of 495 is a broad statement. Many towns east of 495 are inland a ways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, JoeSnowBOS said: So what are you expecting for east of 495/ east/south east New England? All that matters now is how each model (and subsequent runs) continue to handle the evolution of the northern stream and southern stream. All you're looking for is consistency regarding evolution and trying to eliminate scenarios and hone in on as few scenarios as possible. the verbatim details of temp profiles, p-type, QPF, etc. are irrelevant at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: East of 495 is a broad statement. Many towns east of 495 are inland a ways. Yeah I'm technically east of 495 but very close to it...and some other spots with a little bit of elevation too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said: So what are you expecting for east of 495/ east/south east New England? Beer? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 33 minutes ago, KTBFFH1905 said: Same here. It is looking more an more promising. Would be nice to ski at Sundown on some actual real snow Ever been in the secret glade off of the left of gun barrel? You need a shit ton of fresh, but it is a beautiful top to bottom maintained glade. Staff must thin it and maintain it in the off season. It’s as good a glade area you’ll find in the northeast. Don’t be seen going in, they’ll pull your pass. But it’s quite worth it when conditions allow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm technically east of 495 but very close to it...and some other spots with a little bit of elevation too. Then you have areas like mine, which are right on 495 and relatively close to the ocean, but due to the angle of the coastline have very limited marine influence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm technically east of 495 but very close to it...and some other spots with a little bit of elevation too. right ...the N and S ends of 495 are quite a bit closer to the coast than the W-NW arc of that civil layout. it's kind of why the distinction of 'beyond 495' sort of tacitly really means NW of the tangent to that arc ... like this I guess ...But is obviously negotiable at the southern end of that bold line... and also it's not a hard transition axis either - there's fiddle room depending on circumstances.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Down here thinking mostly rain but if trends are more off shore could see some snow. Other than the 1” of snow last week we are pretty dry down here with frost mostly through so think 1-2” of rain here would be a non issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Declaration of PTYPE is premature IMO att. It's all dependent on how the atmospheric chaos shakes-out. Everything is still on the table. Signal is strong, repeat SIGNAL IS STRONG. Based on ENSEMBLES and models coming to an agreement (somewhat) this event has a fantastic chance to produce. One must consider a huge gradient with man-sized CF. Watch the winds and flooding coastal tides if the storm achieves its potential. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSnowBOS Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Then you have areas like mine, which are right on 495 and relatively close to the ocean, but due to the angle of the coastline have very limited marine influence. My point is coastal SNE will be rain. Where the rain/snow line is inland TBD but it will be a ways out. No denying that - let’s just be honest with this set up and it’s mid March, and the entirety of winter has been this way to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: right ...the N and S ends of 495 are quite a bit closer to the coast than the W-NW arc of that civil layout. it's kind of why the distinction of 'beyond 495' sort of tacitly really means NW of the tangent to that arc ... like this I guess 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Feeling pretty good about it based on the latest EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said: Feeling pretty good about it based on the latest EPS. Where in CT are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Down here thinking mostly rain but if trends are more off shore could see some snow. Other than the 1” of snow last week we are pretty dry down here with frost mostly through so think 1-2” of rain here would be a non issue. Beer? You should get a minimum of 6-8” there. And probably more 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s probably anecdotal but the off hour euro/eps is a tick less trustworthy to this weenie. I agree. Although last nights 18z run scored a major win with the SWCT snow threat tomorrow night . So hopefully it’s onto something with storm # 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Y'all are crazy throwing snow amounts out LOL. Good luck. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Y'all are crazy throwing snow amounts out LOL. Good luck. Yeah wait until at least Saturday, lol....this could be ripping up the CT valley for all we know by tomorrow. If we keep the general model clustering close to the BM/outer Cape region today, then I'd start to get a little more confident, but we're still in that precarious window at D4.5ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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