Heisy Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 It’ll get there in it’s own special way lol. .Yea the main vort strengthens in time to produce, but it’s def different evolution vs euro which phases in that STJ vort. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: April 97 redux? Eh. That’s a sacred bar to jump over…it’s not impossible with this type of closed off low and stall…that makes a very high end storm plausible…but you obviously need everything to go right. If we’re seeing the stall/capture scenarios southeast of SNE in another 36 hours, then maybe it might be worth more seriously considering. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Ends up impressive without it, too.Yea for sure I would def take that as a positive this run. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 So I think this place may be hopping in 6-8 hours.....either that or Will will slap folks into the panic thread...lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Eh. That’s a sacred bar to jump over…it’s not impossible with this type of closed off low and stall…that makes a very high end storm plausible…but you obviously need everything to go right. If we’re seeing the stall/capture scenarios southeast of SNE in another 36 hours, then maybe it might be worth more seriously considering. Snowfall distribution, currently, is not that far off. Orh sitting pretty, as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 By the way I liked the look of the 18z icon at the end of its range. The southern vort trended a little more progressive & main ULL had a little sharper dive look . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: By the way I liked the look of the 18z icon at the end of its range. The southern vort trended a little more progressive & main ULL had a little sharper dive look . Yeah that’s actually a great look there. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I'm probably wrong, but it still seems like the GFS chases the Euro on most bigger systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 No changes? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: No changes? Don’t even…you know he is lurking in the virtual bushes like a stalker just waiting for the one run, or set of runs, that whiff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Post the Morch 2001 snow map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Don’t even…you know he is lurking in the virtual bushes like a stalker just waiting for the one run, or set of runs, that whiff. He’s been very quiet today with the other guidance trending towards the Euro and the Euro doubling down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Post the Morch 2001 snow map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 30 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yea for sure I would def take that as a positive this run. . I've been harping on the aspect of the GFS' progressive bias that cumulates out in time... As it nears, it gradually reduces that incrementally as the time shortens - it really appears to me like we're seeing it doing something like this. The first aspect it would tend to correct toward short wave lengths, where the more dominant N/stream has the larger integrating force/wave spacing. This next Tuesday's totality, by the way ( for the general reader) is actually more of subsume model phasing. People were trying to compare this to '97 but it would actually be more in the 1978 type of evolution, where the western ridge gives the N stream a nudge S. Combined with the southern stream well times passing underneath lowers isohypsotic resistance ( height contours and shear related ) down she comes and fuses cold core heights with a ton of S stream pwat dynamics ... Granted ... Tuesday's interplay is not nearly as elegant as this above - pretty much the immaculate example. But.. the gist is still the same. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, George001 said: He’s been very quiet today with the other guidance trending towards the Euro and the Euro doubling down. For now but he’s lurking… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Gefs is way north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, George001 said: Gefs is way north Several members over sne. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I’ll take my chances with that low location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 45 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We’ve reminisced about it several times over the past several weeks. It’s possible with increased water vapor in the atmosphere but I assume those are 1/200 year events. Only 65 years left....I may be blind by 107, though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Oh Man that’s beast mode on GEFS there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Only 65 years left....I may be blind by 107, though 1717 ... 1888 ... 2059 ... you'll just be 78 which will be like 55 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh Man that’s beast mode on GEFS there. Looks pretty warm overall to me. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Eh. That’s a sacred bar to jump over…it’s not impossible with this type of closed off low and stall…that makes a very high end storm plausible…but you obviously need everything to go right. If we’re seeing the stall/capture scenarios southeast of SNE in another 36 hours, then maybe it might be worth more seriously considering. Yea, I said earlier we need to get this to Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Looks pretty warm overall to me. So did the Euro lol.. until it wasn’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 If GFS is warm its bc it hasn't phased the n stream in yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Only 65 years left....I may be blind by 107, though Just have the great great grandkids wheel you out into the yard and put on a virtual simulator of 1888 that some one will have made by then, and ask the grandkids to buy a couple packs of ballpark franks and just toss them at you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh Man that’s beast mode on GEFS there. Too many members that run into CT for my liking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Just have the great great grandkids wheel you out into the yard and put on a virtual simulator of 1888 that some one will have made by then, and ask the grandkids to buy a couple packs of ballpark franks and just toss them at you. Just wheel me out onto the yard with a few diapers and a laptop and leave me 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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