Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,200
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
 Share

Recommended Posts

  On 3/8/2023 at 5:26 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Ironically, Saturday's system would have made a good infusion to the 50/50 vortex, but it's getting crushed so far ESE it never helps out. We're left with the naked trailing ridge behind it with less 50/50 now pressing the heights down in Quebec.

In addition, the better Pacific with the big rockies ridge is actually making the northern stream dig a little too much for my liking on some of these solutions. We want it to dig, but not as early as it's doing, but it's responding to the big ridge building out west.

All of that in combination is making this more of a needle-threader than you'd typically want to see. There's still pretty high potential in this system, but I don't see a lot of margin for error that we sometimes see in other big dogs.

Expand  

That's basically how I feel. It's a needle threader here..maybe more of a rain to snow deal perhaps. I'd feel a lot better Berks into NNE. I know it's early, but my preliminary feelings anyways.

  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/8/2023 at 5:29 PM, CoastalWx said:

That's basically how I feel. It's a needle threader here..maybe more of a rain to snow deal perhaps. I'd feel a lot better Berks into NNE. I know it's early, but my preliminary feelings anyways.

Expand  

Yeah we should prob stress that in a blocky flow, model guidance could easily change the look enough to matter a lot for sensible wx.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/8/2023 at 5:26 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Ironically, Saturday's system would have made a good infusion to the 50/50 vortex, but it's getting crushed so far ESE it never helps out. We're left with the naked trailing ridge behind it with less 50/50 now pressing the heights down in Quebec.

In addition, the better Pacific with the big rockies ridge is actually making the northern stream dig a little too much for my liking on some of these solutions. We want it to dig, but not as early as it's doing, but it's responding to the big ridge building out west.

All of that in combination is making this more of a needle-threader than you'd typically want to see. There's still pretty high potential in this system, but I don't see a lot of margin for error that we sometimes see in other big dogs.

Expand  

I see what you’re saying on confluence. Ironically we’ll need the pna to not spike now, a complete reversal of seasonal demands. Interesting. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The -NAO and general blocking is fading while retrograding west...That was always part of the deal.. But it needs(ed) to time right with the other moving parts in total hemisphere.  These storms seem all powerful when they're under way, but they have narrow bandwidths with leading parametrics...etc.

Anyway... too much on Saturday and too little next week ... nuances that need to be overcome. 

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/8/2023 at 5:31 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I see what you’re saying on confluence. Ironically we’ll need the pna to not spike now, a complete reversal of seasonal demands. Interesting. 

Expand  

It just zooms on out of here, I mentioned that yesterday. Probably the most frustrating part of this season. 

Anyways, not trying to pee in anyone's cheerios. Just noting.

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/8/2023 at 5:33 PM, CoastalWx said:

It just zooms on out of here, I mentioned that yesterday. Probably the most frustrating part of this season. 

Anyways, not trying to pee in anyone's cheerios. Just noting.

Expand  

The peepee is needed. Otherwise we’d be full steam ahead with snow goggles on. Models can show what they want but dissecting the smaller but important details is what we need you guys for. Thanks and hopefully you’re peeing won’t turn into a shit streak shit show as we get closer. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/8/2023 at 5:37 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The peepee is needed. Otherwise we’d be full steam ahead with snow goggles on. Models can show what they want but dissecting the smaller but important details is what we need you guys for. Thanks and hopefully you’re peeing won’t turn into a shit streak shit show as we get closer. 

Expand  

Honestly, that is what might be needed. :lol:   

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/8/2023 at 5:26 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Agreed. Eastern NYS could be in for a big one. I’d lean rain for most east of Worcester, up to SE NH.

 

Things can change obviously 

Expand  

Oh definitely, And I may change my mind tomorrow lol . For Se mass I think it is much harder / more thread the needle then outside 495 belt 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/8/2023 at 5:17 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

Why does pivotal look drastically different? It's the UKMET so who cares either way but 976 near the BM vs this looks entirely like a different run/model. Is the UKMET-G different from pivotals UKMET?

sfcwind_mslp.us_ne.thumb.png.bd8de808c4b27b73cc0421bbe0d42d46.png

Expand  

Looks like resolution differences? Pivotal looks a lot more higher res and is probably picking up the 976mb gridpoint that meteocentre isn't.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/8/2023 at 5:57 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Folks are nervous.. absolute sweaty hand wringing trepidation. Thinking about rains and rumored rains to Maines 

Expand  

The stakes are high given how awful the season has been and how high the potential is next week…but with mounting red flags of a needle threader. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/8/2023 at 6:06 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The stakes are high given how awful the season has been and how high the potential is next week…but with mounting red flags of a needle threader. 

Expand  

Might be a case where you and I see more snow Saturday than we do early next week.....this one does have the feeling of up and in right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...