BombsAway1288 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Coast is toast with this. Hugger=rain. BM=rain 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 1:35 PM, Cyclone-68 said: And 5-10 will likely disappear on the ground about three days later Expand Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 1:50 PM, BombsAway1288 said: Coast is toast with this. Hugger=rain. BM=rain Expand Not quite just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 EPS ends up here though... That's D7 with an attempt at digging under L.I. ... and this is a defined deepening trend spanning several cycles as of 00z. In other words it may yet dig another 2 deg latitude. This is very close to being April 97 -like (not claiming analog - just at a glance). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 1:26 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The elephant in the room for many. At least for the beginning part of the storm, even in a favorable track. Expand I think you are the elephant...dropping huge turds into any punchbowl you can find. (said with affection) I think we are locked in on this one with details to determine, but unfortunately those details and nuances will affect the majority of our regional forum. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 1:29 PM, brooklynwx99 said: a bit pessimistic considering such a dynamic system at day 6 lmao this has a lot of potential given the amount of energy being dumped into the trough but that's the tenor of the year, I suppose Expand what would it take to get more northern stream/cold air into this beast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 1:30 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’ll take 47 and call it a winter Expand 35 looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 12:49 PM, dendrite said: May as well turn our area into Soda Springs. Expand We may need quite a few more to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Assuming this hits.. is this a Monday night / Tuesday deal.. or is it more Tuesday into Wednesday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 1:33 PM, ORH_wxman said: I’d like to see the ULL center further southeast. Sitting there in between Lake Erie and Huron isn’t ideal for coastal plain folks…caveat is that you have that leading vortmax become strong enough to really render the western ULL irrelevant…but in those scenarios I don’t think you’d get the classic capture until well later. This. That’s kind of what the crazy 00z euro run did the other night down here in E PA with the southern vort max being the strong one. Wish we could get that lakes ULL to dive a lot farther SE. We have about 2 maybe 3 days left to see large scale changes before models lock in on a general progression. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 1:58 PM, dendrite said: 35 looks good Expand 16 is ideal. Crushes the areas that have missed out on every KU since 2011 while delivering high end snows for everyone but se zones. If we’re gonna do big storm regression, this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 EPS looks pretty good. Definitely a Miller A moving up from Alabama area off the Delmarva then off LI. Key will be where from there. Control has a 981 near the BM. Plenty of time to watch. Hopefully convection doesn't screw this up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 2:26 PM, Ginx snewx said: EPS looks pretty good. Definitely a Miller A moving up from Alabama area off the Delmarva then off LI. Key will be where from there. Control has a 981 near the BM. Plenty of time to watch. Hopefully convection doesn't screw this up. Expand Lordamercy..anything but a convective blob robbing the potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I am rooting for a delayed capture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Miller A =LBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Nice trend at 06z: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Ya that looks dam good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Would love to see that nipple appendage of low pressure rapidly go away as the secondary takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 2:01 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Assuming this hits.. is this a Monday night / Tuesday deal.. or is it more Tuesday into Wednesday? Expand I thought you were all into a Saturday moderate event …and this was a Nada? Have we joined in? Nice to have you my friend. Let’s have a major, and then call it a season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 2:26 PM, Ginx snewx said: EPS looks pretty good. Definitely a Miller A moving up from Alabama area off the Delmarva then off LI. Key will be where from there. Control has a 981 near the BM. Plenty of time to watch. Hopefully convection doesn't screw this up. Expand Its a hybrid in the good solutions because the N stream dives in. The ones that stay all s stream lack cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 2:36 PM, CoastalWx said: Would love to see that nipple appendage of low pressure rapidly go away as the secondary takes over. Expand It actually trended a bit negatively with respect to that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 2:28 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am rooting for a delayed capture. Expand That’s usually how they go if mostly northern stream dominated but this looks hybrid or leaning more A. Embrace the hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 2:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its a hybrid in the good solutions because the N stream dives in. The ones that stay all s stream lack cold. Expand Miller C Jerry's 1960 and my first snowstorm memory. My dad holding me at 3 years old while we visited our brand new house. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 2:41 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s usually how they go if mostly northern stream dominated but this looks hybrid or leaning more A. Embrace the hugger. Expand If the N stream interaction is delayed, which has been the trend, then that isn't the case...this is why we see the SLP trending east at 06z, but the parent H5 hanging on longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 2:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its a hybrid in the good solutions because the N stream dives in. The ones that stay all s stream lack cold. Expand We need that northern stream interaction down this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Its all about when/if potential capture takes place...often guidance is too fast with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 2:40 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: It actually trended a bit negatively with respect to that. Expand That s/w in the Great Lakes.....if that comes in stronger, then as Will alluded too...it will flood the surface to 925 with milder air. I don't want that any stronger. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 2:43 PM, Kitz Craver said: We need that northern stream interaction down this way. Expand Which is what I do not want because it will hook into LI/e MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 2:44 PM, CoastalWx said: That s/w in the Great Lakes.....if that comes in stronger, then as Will alluded too...it will flood the surface to 925 with milder air. I don't want that any stronger. Expand Yea, we would need it to trend south into like OH, in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 2:44 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Which is what I do not want because it will hook into LI/e MA. Expand Yeah but the more pure miller A looks dicey temp wise even up your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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