Powerball Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 In any event, I do have to agree with TheNino though. Just as I'd slit my wrist from the excessive cloudy weather, cold Springs/Falls and relative lack of severe weather in the Lakes regions, I'd also die of boredom in San Diego. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Let's keep talking about Dallas in a winter storm thread when Dallas is a solid 650 miles away from any winter weather related to the event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said: I don’t have the actual stats in front of me but I’m willing to bet from one seasonal extreme to the other MSP has a bigger temp swing than Dallas. . Seasonal? Yes. Diurnally? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, tuanis said: Let's keep talking about Dallas in a winter storm thread when Dallas is a solid 650 miles away from any winter weather related to the event. There was a side about conversation about everyone's ideal climo within the US and I merely provided my own input to it. That said, if my input to said side bar conversation is not welcome, please feel free to ignore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 12Z GFS continues to nudge southward. Going with a first and final call of 4.8" here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Models continue to be all over the place regarding exactly where the best totals (and dry pockets) will be.... northeast Iowa, southern Iowa, through me. In general, the drying has continued. This is not a strong low with heavy banding parking over the area. Models suggest the heavier rates will last a couple hours and then it'll just be light snow. Combined with iffy temps, in March, I think the safe bet is around 3" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 13 hours ago, Harry said: Truthfully? I know what they are but I cannot recall one since moving here in 2004. Probably have forgotten something but it sure seems like a very long time. Feb 1 2015 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 hours ago, Powerball said: Dallas really is the best climo for a weather weenie, if we're being honest. Besides the long warm seasons and seeing plenty of sun, there aren't many places (at least in the US) where you can go from: *A historic deep freeze in February (2021) to... *A December of wall-to-wall Summer-like weather in the same year (2021), plus... *A historic tornado outbreak the following December (2022), not to mention... *One of the worst droughts and driest/hottest Summers ever completely busted by a freak deluge in a matter of hours (2022)... The best part is, these types of events aren't nearly as destructive as a Hurricane, Tsunami or Earthquake of decent strength would be. Dallas would be TORTURE for me. Absolute TORTURE 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I'm liking ratios to not be slush with this one. Chances are increasing that Detroit could see its 3rd 6" snowstorm of the winter. Go figure lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigHoss48192 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I'm liking ratios to not be slush with this one. Chances are increasing that Detroit could see its 3rd 6" snowstorm of the winter. Go figure lol I hope I'll actually be able to use my snowblower on this snowfall. I didn't even bother trying on the last one. I knew I'd just get logs of ice plugging the chute. Please Mother Nature...no rain for Wyandotte. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, BigHoss48192 said: I hope I'll actually be able to use my snowblower on this snowfall. I didn't even bother trying on the last one. I knew I'd just get logs of ice plugging the chute. Please Mother Nature...no rain for Wyandotte. LOL I didn't bother either. It clogged enough Jan 25. It didn't have a prayer Mar 3 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 was wondering if LOT might expand watches south a county or two. But I guess it's all window dressing at this point 3-6 or 6-8 I-88 and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Anything more then 4 inches here would be largest storm of the season for me. Looking decent for I-88 and north in N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 RC .UPDATE... Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 No changes were made to the Winter Storm Watch in effect for the Wisconsin state line counties. The key points from the early AM AFD remain similar and there`s still generally speaking two camps, the higher QPF and snow NCEP guidance (including some but not all CAMs) and the lower QPF and snow foreign guidance. Heaviest precipitation rates, possibly including some rain at onset, look to be mid-late Thursday afternoon into the early evening. Part of that includes daylight hours and temperatures starting a few to several degrees above freezing, so it`s uncertain how long heavier snow rates will take after onset to result in pavement accumulations and worsening impacts. Thinking is that decisions on the winter headlines should be able to be made this afternoon after assessing the rest of the 12z model cycle data, which primarily is the ECMWF and its ensemble at this point. Castro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Euro not bad I-80 and north in IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Definitely not a dual stage snowblower winter across the board. ... Locally I'd be happy having a system without the mixing and thermal profile issues of late. 5:1 snow ratios are so difficult to clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 hours ago, Powerball said: Dallas climo is definitely not great if you're mostly just a winter weather weenie. Eskimo climos such as Chicago and Minneapolis (where you're rocking parkas and slipping/sliding on ice/snow for 3-6 months) would be more ideal for sure. But a winter weather weenie is not necessarily a weather weenie, who is someone that likes to see/track all kinds of active/extreme weather and a variety of it on a frequent basis. A snowstorm in Dallas is like a thunderstorm in Seattle. It's only noteworthy because it doesn't happen very often. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I’ll be riding this one out in the Des Plaines/Mt. Prospect area. Liking this spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 12z EPS and snow depth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 18z HRRR much drier. Accumulations cut by half. Depth change shows only a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 29 minutes ago, Natester said: 18z HRRR much drier. Accumulations cut by half. Depth change shows only a dusting. The snow rates are not good and the temperature is garbage. The temp is in the upper 30s in the morning and falls to the mid 30s during the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Turd duster coming for most of you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Looking forward to Ricky's storm-specific update coming soon! Seems like lower totals overall but may be trending a little bit south in N IL. #### Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 256 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 .SHORT TERM... Issued at 253 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 Through Friday... Key Forecast Messages and Concerns: * Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the I-88 and northward counties/zones, including WI state line counties which were previously in a Winter Storm Watch, starting 3pm Thursday near/west of Fox Valley, and 6pm Thursday closer to the lake * Very wet/dense/heavy snow once again, and temperatures starting a few to several degrees above freezing casts uncertainty regarding timing of worsening impacts Thursday afternoon * There is support for heavy snow rates up to an inch per hour causing impacts to part of the Thursday PM commute, though likely shorter duration of heavy rates and low SLRs points toward 12-hour snow amounts generally below 6" * Highest snow amounts remain forecast for the state line counties at up to 4-7" by the time the snow ends early Friday * Consideration of expanding the WWA a tier or two of counties southward toward I-80 corridor may be warranted depending on guidance and observational trends Tonight will be quiet and dry under the influence of surface high pressure ridging southward across the Great Lakes. Expecting cloud cover to balance out as mostly cloudy, with lows in the lower to mid 30s by early Thursday. Meteorological Details for Thursday PM-Friday AM Winter Weather: To be issued shortly. Castro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Looks like a general 4-7 across this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 18Z NAMs cutting snow totals by over 50%, 24 hours before the start of the event. A tradition unlike any other 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 DTX calling for 11-13:1 ratios. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 hour ago, michaelmantis said: Looking forward to Ricky's storm-specific update coming soon! Seems like lower totals overall but may be trending a little bit south in N IL. #### Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 256 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 .SHORT TERM... Issued at 253 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 Through Friday... Key Forecast Messages and Concerns: * Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the I-88 and northward counties/zones, including WI state line counties which were previously in a Winter Storm Watch, starting 3pm Thursday near/west of Fox Valley, and 6pm Thursday closer to the lake * Very wet/dense/heavy snow once again, and temperatures starting a few to several degrees above freezing casts uncertainty regarding timing of worsening impacts Thursday afternoon * There is support for heavy snow rates up to an inch per hour causing impacts to part of the Thursday PM commute, though likely shorter duration of heavy rates and low SLRs points toward 12-hour snow amounts generally below 6" * Highest snow amounts remain forecast for the state line counties at up to 4-7" by the time the snow ends early Friday * Consideration of expanding the WWA a tier or two of counties southward toward I-80 corridor may be warranted depending on guidance and observational trends Tonight will be quiet and dry under the influence of surface high pressure ridging southward across the Great Lakes. Expecting cloud cover to balance out as mostly cloudy, with lows in the lower to mid 30s by early Thursday. Meteorological Details for Thursday PM-Friday AM Winter Weather: To be issued shortly. Castro And damn Ricky did not disappoint... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: DTX calling for 11-13:1 ratios. Night snow fall is making the difference. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Harry said: Looks like a general 4-7 across this area. Will be waiting a long time to see anything over here rivaling last Friday's intensity. Amazing how much snow we've actually scored with so few days below freezing all winter including zero below freezing in March, which is now way above normal snowfall for the month and isn't done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Frog Town said: Night snow fall is making the difference. Finally catching that break. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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