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March 9-10 Winter Storm


madwx
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It's always been something this season that's resulted in the snow hole from the city and back south and southwest. The issue this afternoon was the stubborn dry wedge.

This evening, despite more than cold enough 850 and 925 mb temps, it's brisk east- southeast low level flow that's brought in just enough low level warmth to result in full melting below 1-1.5kft, if you've been following trends on correlation coefficient.

Interestingly, the RAP and HRRR had that low level warmth on runs earlier today, but the problem is they don't consistently perform well enough to put as much stock in them vs the other guidance.

So ultimately we did get the heavier precip rates here this evening, and similar reflectivity last Friday was ripping aggregates with TSSN, but alas, it just ain't our winter.



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4 hours ago, OHweather said:

I was on the desk today and one can see where there are advisories now in our CWA. Can add that the reason midnight shift didn't issue more advisories was due to feeling the set-up is fragile (due to temps) and the snow accum forecast uncertain more so than not thinking the forecast would warrant one if it held. Nothing major changed today (the forecast held) so advisories were expanded. Snow was still 24 or so hours out early this morning so midnight shift didn't necessarily need to issue advisories yet. I can see an argument that maybe not issuing just for Lucas (which some may have found misleading) and holding off altogether would've been better, but Toledo was completely boxed in otherwise and they felt confident enough that Lucas was pretty fail safe which is why they did what they did. 

Interesting to hear that because my dad and I actually wondered if that was the case. I don’t love the call because it can lead people to believe it’ll “go north” or that “it’ll stop around I-75”. Toledo is definitely in an odd position with the entire metro being split in 3 by NWS offices. 

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6 hours ago, Powerball said:

Heavy Snow Warning shared the same snowfall criteria as a Winter Storm Warning, except Winter Storm Warning just had a wind, wind chill and/or ice criteria to it.

Same goes for the Snow Advisory and Winter Weather Advisory...

The last Heavy Snow Warning I can remember was in Dec '05 when 8-10" fell. Apparently the lack of wind kept it from being a warning. 

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4.5in so far. But it’s not a “fun” snow. As soon as I step on it, it just turns to slush. I’ve nearly fallen on my ass more than once. I’ll take anything at this point this winter though so I’m happy.

Power has been flickering all night here and my internet has been out since about 8pm. Power still out across the street.

Not even sure if it’ll be worth trying to clear the driveway in the morning. Might just drive on it and let it melt.

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14 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Some impressive banding setting up over metro detroit, def further north than where the gfs/euro had it. Rgem has been on fire lately locally within 72 hours. Grr has been under banding almost all night and wouldn't be surprised to see 8-10 somewhere around there.

It’s coming down pretty good. Going to be cool riding into work today. I’ll have some good pics in a few hours when I’m at my job site. Glad this one had less of a wind factor in it

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13 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

I’m going to be downriver today by some wood areas so I’m excited to get some good ones too! Hope you got to enjoy last week on your trip up here

I dont think theres going to be much downriver but should get some pics on the way down. Im surprised at all the school closings. They didn't close most of the macomb schools ahead of the last event, but closed today while I think only an inch has fallen. I suppose the fact the heaviest snow is falling during rush hour is the reason.

I did enjoy my trip last week. Sold my house. No way i wouldve believed you if you told me 10 years ago id sell my house for what i did. Also I got to witness thundersnow, even tho the bigger totals were just to my west. It was a weird week, record heat in Florida to thundersnow.

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42 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

well 2" in Canton here as of 6am. Someone near the Grand Rapids area who was a Meteorologist on Facebook stated he had 10" already... 

 1.5" here so far with 2-3" call looking good for MBY as radar is slowly decreasing in intensity.  I am glad I didn't have high expectations with this system as many recent model runs had it peaking west of here.  I am good with GRR area getting the higher totals.  

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