SolidIcewx Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 4-6 so it can pave my driveway without it costing me 1000s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 52 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: While there has been a general weakening/drying trend across the board, the Euro is way drier than all other models (1/3 to 1/2). Look at this.... the Euro vs GFS, only two days away from the event. Seriously, wtf?!? this is and always was a standard advisory level event at 3-6". Thinking a model showing a 12" snowfall 4-5 days out is fools gold, and has always been. Problem is, we post and follow them so when reality sets in were disssapointed. And I will push back on it's been a winter of events trending south and dryer. It's been a non winter south of Wisconsin and Michigan.Not one event has run the corridor from Iowa through Northern Ohio with a standard 3-6" advisory snow this winter. However, I can tell you that Milwaukee, less than an hour from my back yard had a 8" snowfall on1/29(this also hit most of far north Ill incl Mchenry county), a 6" snowfall on 2/17, and a 3-4" sleet/snow event on 2/22-23. Heck, less than 5 days ago we had a huge intense cutter through the midwest. They don't always work out for your backyard. It's just been a bad winter for the zone mentioned previuosly. But who knows maybe this one will surprise. If not, the grass will green up, the days are longer, birds are chirping at 5 am, green is poking out of the ground, and baseball is being played in florida and arizona. I love the transition to spring as well. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Euro is notoriously too dry, gfs is probably too wet, so with the middle ground. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 3” of cement incoming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 the timing on this is moving up. What looked like a completely overnight event west of Lake Michigan now looks like it will be begin early Thursday afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Models are painting a big dry slot for eastern and central MN. Nam is trending back north. Should be interesting to see if the globals start trending north too. That’ll be about the only way we get any significant amounts from this system. No matter what it looks like somewhere on the north side will get really screwed by that dryslot. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Quad Cities issues a watch...a bit of a wide range on totals. National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 233 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 IAZ040>042-051>054-ILZ001-002-007-080445- /O.NEW.KDVN.WS.A.0004.230309T1800Z-230310T1500Z/ Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Jo Daviess- Stephenson-Carroll- Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque, Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Galena, Freeport, and Mount Carroll 233 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 9 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Illinois and east central and northeast Iowa. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Baum said: this is and always was a standard advisory level event at 3-6". Thinking a model showing a 12" snowfall 4-5 days out is fools gold, and has always been. Problem is, we post and follow them so when reality sets in were disssapointed. And I will push back on it's been a winter of events trending south and dryer. It's been a non winter south of Wisconsin and Michigan.Not one event has run the corridor from Iowa through Northern Ohio with a standard 3-6" advisory snow this winter. However, I can tell you that Milwaukee, less than an hour from my back yard had a 8" snowfall on1/29(this also hit most of far north Ill incl Mchenry county), a 6" snowfall on 2/17, and a 3-4" sleet/snow event on 2/22-23. Heck, less than 5 days ago we had a huge intense cutter through the midwest. They don't always work out for your backyard. It's just been a bad winter for the zone mentioned previuosly. But who knows maybe this one will surprise. If not, the grass will green up, the days are longer, birds are chirping at 5 am, green is poking out of the ground, and baseball is being played in florida and arizona. I love the transition to spring as well. Pretty accurate. Had to be north of the state line with the exception of the ice storm and 1/29 event that hit areas hard just north of me like Woodstock. RFD sits at 20.5" for the season while Madison has 45.4" and MKE 28.5". Shit kicker is RFD finished with 21.1" of snow last year just NW of the February to remember corridor. Looking forward to spring also only a month away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 18 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Pretty accurate. Had to be north of the state line with the exception of the ice storm and 1/29 event that hit areas hard just north of me like Woodstock. RFD sits at 20.5" for the season while Madison has 45.4" and MKE 28.5". Shit kicker is RFD finished with 21.1" of snow last year just NW of the February to remember corridor. Looking forward to spring also only a month away. Re: RFD snowfall totals, the snow measuring out of there is not the best...So use with caution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 36 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Pretty accurate. Had to be north of the state line with the exception of the ice storm and 1/29 event that hit areas hard just north of me like Woodstock. RFD sits at 20.5" for the season while Madison has 45.4" and MKE 28.5". Shit kicker is RFD finished with 21.1" of snow last year just NW of the February to remember corridor. Looking forward to spring also only a month away. RFD sits at 20.5" while I am at 9.2". Wild gradient between here and there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: RFD sits at 20.5" while I am at 9.2". Wild gradient between here and there. Wow. Even I have measured 18-19" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Wow. Even I have measured 18-19" here. Disregard that number, I definitely never added the Feb storm. We are around 14" YTD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Lightning said: March with a -NAO + -AO so some suppression is not unexpected. Sounds like the perfect combo for some legit march snows in the lower great lakes. Se ridge vs telecommunications. Maybe this winter can end with a bang. Think dtx will just issue wwa's, prob an hour before event starts. It's weird, they have been issuing warnings on time but more often than not, last minute with wwa's. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 GFS still juicy for those of us along the I-90 and I-94 corridors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Probably can cut these totals in half, unless this is counting the weekend snow potential. (Which it doesn’t) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 It's kind of weird as we haven't had a SLP take this trajectory across the sub yet. Curious how the models will handle this Bowling Ball type Low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, Frog Town said: It's kind of weird as we haven't had a SLP take this trajectory across the sub yet. Curious how the models will handle this Bowling Ball type Low. Hopefully laying off the wind this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 18z Euro picking up a lake enhancement signal it hasn’t had on prior runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: 18z Euro picking up a lake enhancement signal it hasn’t had on prior runs this is our moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I’ll go 2-4” final call because of the poor BL temps but a caking nonetheless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 WPC/CPC says hello to da Mitt Slowly trying to erode that brown stain in SEMI with the white stuff, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: WPC/CPC says hello to da Mitt Slowly trying to erode that brown stain in SEMI with the white stuff, lol It's weird, they seem to be highlighting the mountains in Oakland County for the severe drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 The Euro, Nam, and Nest all really want to make this almost a non-event for MSP. Maybe 2-4” for me on the north side but if this trend continues we may not even get that. CAMs should be interesting. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 In the middle of the sub the NAM trends N and the Euro trends S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Again.. There is a reason the NAM will be gone by the end of the year. Yes it's being replaced along with the HRR which I don't get as much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 With every event, the NAM gives more evidence that it should already have been retired. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: With every event, the NAM gives more evidence that it should already have been retired. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk I hear you. I just don't get the HRR so much? It seems to do well with LES around here atleast. Biggest issue is beyond 24hrs it seems with that. Ofcourse I am seeing it from a imby view which is tiny vs the rest of the lower 48.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: With every event, the NAM gives more evidence that it should already have been retired. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk On another note.. Back when the NAM was the ETA I don't recall it being as bad except with QPF which always seemed to be overdone. I always thought that if they combined that with the NGM ( always to dry )we would have had a decent model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/7/2023 at 5:24 PM, Frog Town said: It's kind of weird as we haven't had a SLP take this trajectory across the sub yet. Curious how the models will handle this Bowling Ball type Low. This most definitely isn't a bowling ball situation. Some seem to have forgotten what exactly one of those look like, but that's not surprising given it's been quite a while since we've actually seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: This most definitely isn't a bowling ball situation. Some seem to have forgotten what exactly one of those looks like, but that's not surprising given it's been quite a while since we've seen one. Yeah this is more of a hybrid clipper than anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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