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March 7th Clipper Disco/Obs


Rjay
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27 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I hope it works out but for me it's still a caution that the RGEM has never been on board and is still not really on board.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030618&fh=24&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=rdps 

Interesting to see the meso models bumbed slightly north and with more precip (.2-.3) in NYC. GFS also with similar amounts.

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3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

This could be the end for the futility record, Central Park needs 0.7” to go over the lowest ever. 

 

Chances are they'd lose it next week or sometime in the next 2 anyway but even getting 0.3 or 0.4 tonight makes it really hard to hold onto it

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By the time this output shows a Precipitation Type   S-------there is about 2 hours of precipitating left to go and the T is probably 37.

 KNYC   NEW YORK CITY         GFS LAMP 0130 UTC   3/07/2023                      
 UTC  02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 
 TMP  47 46 45 43 42 41 40 39 37 36 36 36 37 38 40 41 42 42 42 41 39 38 37 36 35 
 DPT  13 14 14 15 15 16 17 18 17 17 17 16 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 
 WDR  29 30 31 31 31 33 33 35 34 34 34 34 34 34 33 33 32 32 32 32 32 33 33 34 34 
 WSP  06 05 06 05 05 04 04 03 04 06 06 07 08 07 10 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 14 
 WGS  NG NG NG NG NG NG NG NG NG NG NG NG 14 14 18 20 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 21 22 
 PPO   2  3  8 27 35 38 41 44 36 28 20 13  9  5  1  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  2  3 
 PCO   N  N  N  N  N  N  Y  Y  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N 
 P01   0  7 18 36 43 55 69 58 24 21 14  4  1  1  1  1  1  2  2  2  3  5  6  5  5 
 PC1   N  N  N  Y  Y  Y  Y  Y  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N 
 P06                                90                 6                12       
 LP1   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
 LC1   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N 
 CP1   0  0  0  2  7 17 14  2  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0 
 CC1   N  N  N  N  N  L  L  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N 
 POZ   0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
 POS  18 22 23 26 28 42 57 73 74 74 74 72 73 77 76 74 73 69 65 60 66 71 75 81 88 
 TYP   R  R  R  R  R  R  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S 
 CLD  BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW CL CL CL CL CL CL FW FW FW FW CL CL 
 CIG   8  8  7  7  7  6  6  6  6  6  7  7  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8 
 CCG   8  8  7  7  7  7  6  6  6  7  7  7  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  6  6  6  6  6  6 
 VIS   7  7  7  7  7  5  3  4  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7 
 CVS   7  7  7  7  7  5  3  5  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7 
 OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N 
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Dropped from 45 to 39F over the past hour here in Metuchen, as the rain started finally reaching the ground in the last 30 minutes.  Hoping that that heavy slug approaching from Somerset/Hunterdon and seemingly aimed at us in northern Middlesex will get here as it changes to snow - would love to get 1-2" out of this even if it's just on the colder surfaces, but at the rates advertised for a couple of hours by the mesoscale models, I think the snow will even accumulate on paved surfaces.  We'll see.  

 

image.png.a87b7f42a5b231f53917e053dd4566db.png

 
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40 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Just started having sleet and snow mix in with the rain here, as it's down to 37F.  

Had about 30 minutes of fairly heavy sleet, which I'm actually very happy about as it was able to accumulate a lot better than snow would have at 35-36F (down to 34-35F now), since ice pellets have a far lower surface area/volume ratio than snow does.  Now we have a coating of sleet on all the colder surfaces, so when it flips to snow (shortly I think), we should be able to accumulate.  

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Huge flakes, heavy snow (better pic below) - already have 3/4" in the last 20 minutes, although radar shows things lessening a little bit soon. 2" is now possible if the band holds together for another hour or so. It's even coming down fast enough to accumulate on the street in front of my house, so things could be a bit slick for the am commute.

btBdxAe.png

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