March 7th Clipper Disco/Obs

[Dark Star]

9 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

UKMET and Euro now have the narrow band of snow going across central NJ, but unlike the NAM they have light amounts (coating to 2 inches). If this happens I doubt it would be significant amounts like the NAM is showing. The NAM is probably just being its usual crazy terrible self. The other models look more reasonable with light amounts, and it could miss to the south.  

Talk about "threading the needle"   The bullseye is central NJ like you said, but the width of the storm is extremely narrow.  1/8 of a degree (angle) will create a big-a-miss?

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Dark Star said:

Talk about "threading the needle"   The bullseye is central NJ like you said, but the width of the storm is extremely narrow.  1/8 of a degree (angle) will create a big-a-miss?

sounds like a norlun

[mannynyc]

GFS moves north as well

[LibertyBell]

Just now, mannynyc said:

GFS moves north as well

My favorite GFS run was the 12z from yesterday lol

[Volcanic Winter]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

sounds like a norlun

I had a Norlun down here in 2018. Was pretty cool. 
 

https://weatherworksinc.com/news/norlun-trough

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I had a Norlun down here in 2018. Was pretty cool. 
 

https://weatherworksinc.com/news/norlun-trough

I remember you had one in February 2009 too, do you remember that one?  8 inches of snow in Central and South NJ!

They usually miss us, but weirdly are better both south and north of here lol

 

[Volcanic Winter]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember you had one in February 2009 too, do you remember that one?  8 inches of snow in Central and South NJ!

They usually miss us, but weirdly are better both south and north of here lol

 

I don’t, the main event I remember from 2009 was later in December. Was in Long Branch at the time for a year and got absolutely crushed by that Dec storm. Had just started dating my wife and she was over that night and all I remember was digging out for hours. Later in 2010 I was up in North Brunswick through Boxing Day and the rest of that winter. 
 

09-15 are the best winters of my adult life, and what I have the fondest memories of. 2016 was good for the HECS but don’t remember anything else of note and it was warm, which I hate. 

[Winterweatherlover]

44 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Talk about "threading the needle"   The bullseye is central NJ like you said, but the width of the storm is extremely narrow.  1/8 of a degree (angle) will create a big-a-miss?

I tend to think the "bullseye" with this will be 2 inches max and more likely coating to an inch. NAM over juiced as it usually is imo. Clippers usually dry out as they come east. 

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I tend to think the "bullseye" with this will be 2 inches max and more likely coating to an inch. NAM over juiced as it usually is imo. Clippers usually dry out as they come east. 

2" would be my biggest storm of the season. I only got 1.5" with the last one. 

Current HRRR has 2-4" over the area. Clear meso banding showing up on some of the models. 

Maybe a surprise positive bust for some 

[winterwx21]

34 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

2" would be my biggest storm of the season. I only got 1.5" with the last one. 

Current HRRR has 2-4" over the area. Clear meso banding showing up on some of the models. 

Maybe a surprise positive bust for some 

12z Euro looks like HRRR. Has the narrow band of snow going right across our area. Dries it out some as it moves east, but holds it together enough that we'd get 2 to 3 inches here. This is definitely starting to look more interesting. 

[Winterweatherlover]

50 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

2" would be my biggest storm of the season. I only got 1.5" with the last one. 

Current HRRR has 2-4" over the area. Clear meso banding showing up on some of the models. 

Maybe a surprise positive bust for some 

Yea I get that. I don't want to minimize it, I hope it works out for your area.  

[EastonSN+]

An arrow pointing at SI.

[ForestHillWx]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

An arrow pointing at SI.

Both my home (southwest Morris) and my office (northern Somerset) appear in the pinkish area…should be interesting. 

[winterwx21]

18z NAM has the solid band of snow going right across the middle of the area, like the HRRR and EURO. Nice to have an event trending our way at the last minute for a change this winter. 

[Allsnow]

Have no faith in this but models do look good…

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

18z NAM has the solid band of snow going right across the middle of the area, like the HRRR and EURO. Nice to have an event trending our way at the last minute for a change this winter. 

This event is going to be focused on a relatively small part of the forum mostly between I80 and Route 22.  Will be interesting to see who JPs in that area.  Mt. Holly has just issued WWA’s for Warren and Hunterdon Cty’s in NJ in addition to adjacent areas in NE PA.  I have not had to use my snow blower for two years.  I am hoping that I won’t have to use it tonight so we’ll see how that works out.

[CIK62]

 

About a 5 hour event.     Closer call on the NAM:

[matt8204]

1 minute ago, CIK62 said:

Wow.  Decent little event for those who get in on it.  

[weathermedic]

From OKX evening AFD:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Guidance has converged for the weak and quick moving low
pressure system that will be moving out of the upper midwest and
passing to the south of the region tonight. The trend has been
for a colder and slightly farther southern track, with mainly
snow across the area late this evening and overnight. There may
be a brief rain/snow mix at the onset, and transition to snow as
the atmospheric column cools. Precipitation will be generally
light with weak upper support with a flat and broad shortwave
moving through the area. Timing of the precipitation is also
rather consistent with onset around 1000 PM and ending by 500
AM, with the bulk falling in a 3 hour window midnight to 300 AM.
The onset may be delayed as the lower layers are dry, and will
have to be overcome. The band of snowfall is also rather narrow,
with a sharp gradient of no snow to 1 to 1 1/2 inches of
snowfall. And locations to the northeast and east likely see no
to very little precipitation. Therefore, any minor shift in the
track of the low will have impacts to where the heaviest snow
will occur. With the ending time of snow toward Tuesday morning,
the morning commute will be impacted and this is highlighted in
the hazardous weather outlook (HWOOKX).

[Winterweatherlover]

5 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Narrow cutoffs stink but nice to see the areas on the wrong side of the cutoff last week maybe cashing in.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Have no faith in this but models do look good…

Same but I'll laugh if we pull this off.

[Volcanic Winter]

34 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

 

About a 5 hour event.     Closer call on the NAM:

That gets snow to me, somewhere between 1.2-1.8 inches. I’ll take it. 

Doubt it sticks really anywhere here, but I’ll take it. 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Same but I'll laugh if we pull this off.

You’re sitting pretty on this one. So are my wife’s parents in Milltown. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

You’re sitting pretty on this one. So are my wife’s parents in Milltown. 

Guardedly optimistic that some gets over the mountains, but we’ll have to see how heavy a band of snow can get started. In any case good luck to you guys. 

[MJO812]

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Guardedly optimistic that some gets over the mountains, but we’ll have to see how heavy a band of snow can get started. In any case good luck to you guys. 

 

This is a case where those in the southern half of the metro can hope that the tendency for these compact dynamic systems to tick 25 or so miles north of the average model depiction happens.  

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

This is a case where those in the southern half of the metro can hope that the tendency for these compact dynamic systems to tick 25 or so miles north of the average model depiction happens.  

Guess that’s what I’ll be hoping for. 

[jm1220]

This could be the end for the futility record, Central Park needs 0.7” to go over the lowest ever. 

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This could be the end for the futility record, Central Park needs 0.7” to go over the lowest ever. 

That would be great if the needed 0.7" falls.

[Winterweatherlover]

I hope it works out but for me it's still a caution that the RGEM has never been on board and is still not really on board.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030618&fh=24&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=rdps