Rjay Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Some in our sub could see a nice little snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 All the US models have snow for us. Nam, rap, hrrr and gfs. The euro/ukie and Canadians zippo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Better late than never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Better late than never The odds favor this being nothing as of right now but it's something in the short range to track. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 Have a feeling we'll see a lot of, "sunny and 45 degrees" obs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, Rjay said: Have a feeling we'll see a lot of, "sunny and 45 degrees" obs. Anyone ever told you that " you have a lot of snowman19 in you " 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Anyone ever told you that " you have a lot of snowman19 in you " You must be looking at the avatar. As always …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 The 18Z Euro did move to destroy the S/W a tad less...no doubt its juicier than runs were 24 hours ago over PA but we still need decent changes with this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Here comes the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 The HRRR being this stubborn is concerning for sure from a forecasting standpoint. It has had tendencies to catch these types of events in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 What's the skill level of the FV3? I see it posted occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Here comes the Nam And yet the RGEM still has nothing. Really a strange situation to have one model showing 6 inch snows going across central NJ while another has absolutely nothing. HRRR kind of in the middle with a light snow event. Crazy to have a huge spread like this 24 hours before a potential event. It's hard for me to believe in an event when the RGEM isn't on board, since that model has been so good. I'm guessing the snowier models will be wrong, but you never know for sure. I'd love to see some snow tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: And yet the RGEM still has nothing. Really a strange situation to have one model showing 6 inch snows going across central NJ while another has absolutely nothing. HRRR kind of in the middle with a light snow event. Crazy to have a huge spread like this 24 hours before a potential event. It's hard for me to believe in an event when the RGEM isn't on board, since that model has been so good. I'm guessing the snowier models will be wrong, but you never know for sure. I'd love to see some snow tomorrow night. The RGEM is probably going to be wrong at this stage, especially across C-E PA...even the Euro at 18Z was bringing decent snows into N-C PA. I'm still not confident on what happens E of there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 20 minutes ago, Nibor said: What's the skill level of the FV3? I see it posted occasionally. Trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Trash It sometimes does well with convective events but I rarely look at it otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Trash Sigh. Noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 UKMET and Euro now have the narrow band of snow going across central NJ, but unlike the NAM they have light amounts (coating to 2 inches). If this happens I doubt it would be significant amounts like the NAM is showing. The NAM is probably just being its usual crazy terrible self. The other models look more reasonable with light amounts, and it could miss to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 If this transpires it will put records in perspective, since CPK will be North of the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Looks like a lake-effect band. Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Looks like a lake-effect band. Strange. Even though it will be south of me, it would be real cool to watch transpire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Even though it will be south of me, it would be real cool to watch transpire. I'm very close to it and within range. We won't know where the band sets up until it starts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 For those into the CPK record, this could be the chance to avoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3k NAM moved north, right over Central Park. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: If this transpires it will put records in perspective, since CPK will be North of the band. It's more that whomever is closest to the water will probably see the least. Got to be in elevated areas to see the best snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 RGEM finally starting to show a little bit. Just a dusting to half inch for central NJ, but it's starting to catch on. NAM not surprisingly did lower amounts on the 12z run and has a light event now. Can hope HRRR is correct about getting a little more, but I doubt it. We'll be coming off warm temps this afternoon and it will take awhile for temps to get down close to freezing when the snow is falling late tonight. I would think we're looking at just a coating to an inch on colder surfaces. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: RGEM finally starting to show a little bit. Just a dusting to half inch for central NJ, but it's starting to catch on. NAM not surprisingly did lower amounts on the 12z run and has a light event now. Can hope HRRR is correct about getting a little more, but I doubt it. We'll be coming off warm temps this afternoon and it will take awhile for temps to get down close to freezing when the snow is falling late tonight. I would think we're looking at just a coating to an inch on colder surfaces. If the snow comes down heavier it will accumulate but the real question is how much moisture will be left as it downslopes. It’ll be moving too fast to really gather much from the Atlantic in time. I wouldn’t expect more than an inch anywhere in this sub forum. Central PA will do better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 24 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If the snow comes down heavier it will accumulate but the real question is how much moisture will be left as it downslopes. It’ll be moving too fast to really gather much from the Atlantic in time. I wouldn’t expect more than an inch anywhere in this sub forum. Central PA will do better. I have never seen a clipper do much more than a dusting here, and often nothing comes of it. Clippers are all nowcasting as far as I'm concerned. It does get some people riled up when they hear the word snow, however.....this may be a case where Mercer sees something and Middlesex doesn't. That used to happen; people would drive in from Trenton and we'd be looking at them complaining about snow and wondering what the heck they were talking about..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 21 hours ago, binbisso said: All the US models have snow for us. Nam, rap, hrrr and gfs. The euro/ukie and Canadians zippo If those models are correct someone in a narrow area is going to get a nice surprise but i still think those are overdone. RGEM never came on board for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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