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New England Met Spring 2023 Banter


Baroclinic Zone
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15 hours ago, mreaves said:

Nice.  That guy has an interesting blog

Yeah. He makes a point of taking advantage of the snow when it's there, and travel as much as he can during the day. He is good at pointing out that during what can seem like crappy conditions (shoulder trails along the roads are sparse, etc), but deep in the woods if you are willing to trailer in a bit you can find miles of trails still.  Technically trails close up there by April 15th, but I doubt there was much good riding past this weekend.

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Market / stock / finance related 

CPI number comes in at 830am Wednesday 

There is a 5 year slowly rising trend line of support on the VIX (volatility chart ) every time the market has tested the bottom of that trend line the Vix pops a bit and market drops . Looks to me like if CPI comes in favorable then the VIX could potentially close below the trend line on the day and the week , which would likely lead to a leg higher in stocks in the short term . (all risk assets , including crypto would see the bump ) best performing asset of the year so far is BTC . 

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19 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Market / stock / finance related 

CPI number comes in at 830am Wednesday 

There is a 5 year slowly rising trend line of support on the VIX (volatility chart ) every time the market has tested the bottom of that trend line the Vix pops a bit and market drops . Looks to me like if CPI comes in favorable then the VIX could potentially close below the trend line on the day and the week , which would likely lead to a leg higher in stocks in the short term . (all risk assets , including crypto would see the bump ) best performing asset of the year so far is BTC . 

So what is a favorable number for CPI?

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3 hours ago, sheahunter said:

So what is a favorable number for CPI?

Well , market anticipated Core CPI YOY to be 5.6 and it was, (Core CPI excludes food and energy ) and the fed tends to monitor that closer

 

 there are other measures 

Monthly CPI (includes energy and food ) was supposed to rise .2% and came in at .1% (thanks to price falls at pump) last month . But since OPEC scaled back production prices shot back up a little over a week ago so that could easily bump more next month 

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The market is at a pretty serious inflection point

Market has rallied generally since the dollar topped in October , and this bear market rally of the last month plus has been mostly 7 large stocks , so to me it looks like rally is running out of steam 

Also the regional bank crisis of mid March led to the biggest cutback of lending in history to the tune of 104 Billion in the last 2 weeks of March as regional banks greatly tightened their lending standards, this increase the chance of recession significantly 

The SP500 (market ) is coming up on a key level that often marks the difference between a bear market rally and a new bull market . When the SP500 gets above its 20 month moving average and defends that level its a bullish indicator of a new bull market . That level is 4200 and we need a monthly close above that level . Given how far we rallied so far , there is a lot of room for stocks to pullback from here if they can’t close above that key level . Currently we are at 4120.

Two key indicators to watch are the VIX (volatile index ) and also the BKX (banking index).

The Vix has a 5 year slowly rising trend line of approx 18.2/18.3 and we are right in the high 18’s . Every time  in last several years it tests that level of support , it has spiked higher and stocks Have fallen  , so for a rally to continue and to take us to a Monthly close above the 20month moving average , we are gonna need a break below that 5 year trend line . VIX is a nice symbol to monitor 

Also , the Regional banking index is currently Right around it’s level of very long term support (that trend line ) is always defended and if it falls below..the Fed usually intervenes in some fashion to stabilize it . So , if we don’t get the rally that takes us to a new bull market it appears likely the banking index is going to break below long term support and that cloud lead to rapidly deteriorating credit and financial conditions and sharp spike in volatility . In the past such instances have led to quick market falls followed by quick fed intervention . Currently BKX is at 81.5 and very long term trendiness is 77.7

Seems to me , one of these long term supports is going to need to give shortly  and it will be a significant event . 

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Great weather for first little league practice of the season this evening. It was like watching a live version of the Bad News Bears but all the kids had fun.

Looks like the local little league org doesn’t provide as much equipment these days as when I played 35 years ago. Is that the case all over?

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2 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

Great weather for first little league practice of the season this evening. It was like watching a live version of the Bad News Bears but all the kids had fun.

Looks like the local little league org doesn’t provide as much equipment these days as when I played 35 years ago. Is that the case all over?

What do they provide? I’d have to ask my mom what she paid for me to play back in the early to mid 2000s, but we weren’t provided any equipment that I know of. Paid the fee, got a uniform, and that was that.

I was a catcher and I remember my equipment at the time was very expensive, and my parents bought it. It wasn’t provided by the league.

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Bought a 2020 CPO Ford Ranger Sport with 14k on it. Truck was just off a 3 year lease from North County Ford in New Hampshire.

Good luck to anyone buying a truck now. Used prices for in demand trucks is insane right now. A new ranger is a 6 month wait with many of the features my current model has deleted due to the continued chip shortage. So used prices are crazy close to new if you don't want to wait.

Pretty solid medium duty truck so far. The turbo 4cyl is actually really impressive. 270 hp 310 lb torque with a 7500 towing capacity. I got around 24-26 mpg on a few good highway cruises so far. 

The tech is really awesome. Especially the Fordpass app. From your phone you can lock/unlock, remote start, get into diagnostics, adjust hvac, etc. 

I honestly didnt think I would use the lane assist, collison warning crap, adaptive cruise, etc but found all of it to be pretty awesome.

Screenshot_20230414-055355_Gallery.jpg

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21 hours ago, tamarack said:

My preference is for smaller pickups.  If/when my 2011 Ranger dies (152k at present) I hope to find a reasonably priced Maverick, preferably the hybrid.  (Though that choice might be less "reasonable".)

Have you seen what your Ranger is worth? Those older 2009-2011 Rangers are getting big money. Their book value will be like 12k but they are selling for like 15-17k. 

My next truck will be hopefully an electric but the 4cyl turbo in this has some of the best mpg in its size.

 

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4 hours ago, BrianW said:

Have you seen what your Ranger is worth? Those older 2009-2011 Rangers are getting big money. Their book value will be like 12k but they are selling for like 15-17k. 

My next truck will be hopefully an electric but the 4cyl turbo in this has some of the best mpg in its size.

 

Wow!  I only paid 13k for mine in 2014 and have added 108k since then.  However, I doubt the local Ford dealer would offer anywhere near that much in trade, not even the 12.

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5 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Anyone have opinions of the bronco sport? My wife wants one 

Its an insanely hot car. I was talking to my salesman about them and people are paying whatever to get one. 

Have you looked into the car market lately? Its nuts. Dealers are charging like 5k over msrp with crazy add ons like $1700 mandatory upholstery spray protection. Many cars are like 6+ month wait periods. 

Just saw the average car payment is now $716 over 6 years as well. 

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1 hour ago, BrianW said:

Its an insanely hot car. I was talking to my salesman about them and people are paying whatever to get one. 

Have you looked into the car market lately? Its nuts. Dealers are charging like 5k over msrp with crazy add ons like $1700 mandatory upholstery spray protection. Many cars are like 6+ month wait periods. 

Just saw the average car payment is now $716 over 6 years as well. 

My wife has an 18 rogue that is paid off, so we’d have a sizable down payment. We found a used one she likes with 6k miles like 20 mins away. 
 

its 31k, so not horrible, at least used 

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14 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

My wife has an 18 rogue that is paid off, so we’d have a sizable down payment. We found a used one she likes with 6k miles like 20 mins away. 
 

its 31k, so not horrible, at least used 

Why get rid of the Rogue?  Those are pretty nice and no car payment.  Should be able to last another 5 years. 
 

The Bronco Sport is ok but the fuel economy is lacking in the bigger engine. Even the three cylinder is kinda thirsty for a compact SUV.   I know the cool factor is there. 
Honda CRV has been updated. Mazda CX-50 is a new model and is pretty luxurious.  

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