March 4 2023 Storm Obs

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Just didn't accumulate 

That's like the mid Jan storm here that theoretically dumped 10-12" but never reached a depth higher than 1.8". Not really, but still pissed about that

[Kitz Craver]

So after the epic model debate the other day, I’m not so sure the EURO caved to the GFS…

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Rain

In Plymouth now..sheet rain and 39°

[Kitz Craver]

In fact the GFS stubbornly held on to the wrong idea up until go time with the CCB. Pretty much a fail in my book

[dryslot]

Many wanted it to be right, Some knew otherwise.

[Cold Miser]

Lakeside...Still about an inch left. Winds are howlin' 

[jbenedet]

It's beautiful out with paste on everything and sky brightening up. Pleasent to be outside; not cold. Was sweating while doing some light shoveling. 

Cleaned off the car with 3 gentle pushes. Heavy wet snow can have its clean up benefits if you beat the refreeze.

[TalcottWx]

The snow line is actually a bit ahead of the mix line along the coast because of the heavier echos there. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, jbenedet said:

It's beautiful out with paste on everything and sky brightening up. Pleasent to be outside; not cold. Was sweating while doing some light shoveling. 

Cleaned off the car with 3 gentle pushes. Heavy wet snow can have its benefits clean up benefits if you beat the refreeze.

Stay dangerous 

[TalcottWx]

Mix line is through Provincetown but still mixing in Taunton in places. 

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

So after the epic model debate the other day, I’m not so sure the EURO caved to the GFS…

I think the euro mostly lost that one. GFS was more right than wrong on the evolution of the storm. The problem for spots on the Line is they needed the GFS to be 100% right, not win a 70/30 compromise. 

[dryslot]

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Mix line is through Provincetown but still mixing in Taunton in places. 

[jbenedet]

GFS was way too cold at surface and missed the H7 issues that even made it's way up here for a few hours, with sleet.

That's where it lost to the mesos and euro. Otherwise it had a good handle on the H5 evolution.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

For what it’s worth you can see on RAP that 7H closed off last hour over PVD and there was some nice 7H lift creating that snowy period for Merrimack valley last 2 hours and the 850 low had good lift down toward pike 128 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6.2” final in Nashua (one clearing ) we are compacting faster now 

[Thunderblizzard]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

If anyones curious heres what i have so far, i have to wait a bit for more reports to role in and will refine it but this gives you an idea of some of the 30 or so reports that came in. 

Had about 0.6" of gunk here.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

White rain 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Nice winter from dendrite to dryslot

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

So after the epic model debate the other day, I’m not so sure the EURO caved to the GFS…

Well, the EURO was initially too warm, but the CCB on the GFS was never happening. 

[jbenedet]

I believe the euro also far outperformed the GFS in terms of QPF. 

GFS was ridiculously overdone.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the euro mostly lost that one. GFS was more right than wrong on the evolution of the storm. The problem for spots on the Line is they needed the GFS to be 100% right, not win a 70/30 compromise. 

Yes.

[dryslot]

Just now, jbenedet said:

I believe the euro also far outperformed the GFS in terms of QPF. 

GFS was ridiculously overdone.

GFS was paltry with qpf here until the last two cycles.

[Kitz Craver]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the euro mostly lost that one. GFS was more right than wrong on the evolution of the storm. The problem for spots on the Line is they needed the GFS to be 100% right, not win a 70/30 compromise. 

Sure, my statement was from a MBY viewpoint 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes.

Yeah GFS was too far south and cold, but not to the same degree the euro was too far north and warm. Really I’d say not until about 36-48 hours out did the euro start getting into a spot where I think it performed pretty well. 
 

I do think the GFS should get less weight inside of 48h because it hasn’t been that good in the shorter term. But in that 60-96 hour wheelhouse it has been pretty good most of this winter. 

[TalcottWx]

I think the lift is exiting stage right

[wxeyeNH]

31 Light snow vis  3/4 mile   9.25"

[dendrite]

31.8° picking back up

9” on the nose

[SJonesWX]

measured 7” on the driveway, so prob 9” on top of the pack. Heavy and wet, this shit sucks to move. and my snowblower blew a belt before I could finish clearing the driveway. F this shit. do not want more.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah GFS was too far south and cold, but not to the same degree the euro was too far north and warm. Really I’d say not until about 36-48 hours out did the euro start getting into a spot where I think it performed pretty well. 
 

I do think the GFS should get less weight inside of 48h because it hasn’t been that good in the shorter term. But in that 60-96 hour wheelhouse it has been pretty good most of this winter. 

I agree with this surmise ( bold ).   In fact I was thinking about this very aspect this morning. How the d(correction) aspect, the Euro's total 7 day aggregate may have had to correct more, but ... once in short range?   it seemed to perform pretty good/better than the GFS. 

Now...I'm not willing to give it 'complete' credit inside of 48 hours though, because it had rain to southern NH.  I'm not raining here... at all. It just snow too wet accumulate, under a day glow Mar 4 overcast.  It's actually cold enough to have been a much better player, if the GFS dynamics verified as far S as it had.  It's basically busted N of the GFS the way it looks to me.