Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[SouthCoastMA]

The 973mb SE of the benchmark or the 958 east of Nantucket would be the best here. Fun to look at, and wish we were within 4 days. The GFS/GEFS still nothing like the Euro/EPS, but GEPS is actually pretty close to the EPS. 

[Hoth]

For such a storm to come to pass, the Lord of Light demands a sacrifice. You know what to do.

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That OP run would deform from near ORH to me....but best fronto band probably bear NYC and N NJ

I'll take that lol

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'll take that lol

I knew you’d like that…

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I knew you’d like that…

Very, very unlikely to happen but the EPS gives us some hope.

That's probably the best Day 7 EPS I've seen all season 

[DJln491]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very, very unlikely to happen but the EPS gives us some hope.

That's probably the best Day 7 EPS I've seen all season 

Yup so far the gfs has had the mid-long range weenie vision and anything that came to fruition saw the eps slowly caving.  Maybe we flip the script on this one?  Hope so

[Kitz Craver]

59 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

 

God I love this song

[Kitz Craver]

6z GFS plowing this thing up into Minnesota and trying for a handoff over Michigan LOL. Basically Cuts to frontal passage. Looked as if it was starting to cave 0z last night, but doubles down this morning on burying it 

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

6z GFS plowing this thing up into Minnesota and trying for a handoff over Michigan LOL. Basically Cuts to frontal passage. Looked as if it was starting to cave 0z last night, but doubles down this morning on burying it 

nah, it was improved. not much change in sensible weather, but it was a step in the right direction

[mahk_webstah]

I like the wpc look with a transfer tucked in towards n jersey and Long Island.  They know the deep cutter stuff is likely BS and that this is a coastal milller b setup.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I like the wpc look with a transfer tucked in towards n jersey and Long Island.  They know the deep cutter stuff is likely BS and that this is a coastal milller b setup.

Shocking!!

[MJO812]

Eps looks less amped than 0z

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Some of us knew many weeks ago Mariano Rivera was warming up in the pen…

LFG!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The 973mb SE of the benchmark or the 958 east of Nantucket would be the best here. Fun to look at, and wish we were within 4 days. The GFS/GEFS still nothing like the Euro/EPS, but GEPS is actually pretty close to the EPS. 

Geps is actually dead nuts with eps. Gefs is not that far off at d6-d7 while also being a reasonable/plausible outcome. Long week ahead.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very, very unlikely to happen but the EPS gives us some hope.

That's the best Day 7 EPS I've seen in a decade

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm vehemently more impressed with the blend of the EPS/GEFS/GEPs, both in situ on the 0z cycle, but then wrt their individual trends, than I am any operational run. 

The spread in those is clear that there is too much difficulty seeing the trees through the forest during a pattern change - the specific advent in those guidance appears really yet to emerge. 

[OceanStWx]

The combo of CMC, EPS, GEFS is a nice mean low position. 

Digging deeper clustering shows a pretty good split. We're not dancing around the same location, but there are either inland runners or outside the benchmark. Like a 63/37 split at the moment. Runners are popping up due to either an overpowering trof, or a pumped up northwest Atlantic ridge. The sliders are just a more progressive trof. 

Shouldn't really surprise anyone at this range, but I wouldn't be shocked to see some moves north.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This page .  I see folks have learned very little this year.

Massive caveats apply at a week out. Not exactly a lot of cold air around 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

The combo of CMC, EPS, GEFS is a nice mean low position. 

Digging deeper clustering shows a pretty good split. We're not dancing around the same location, but there are either inland runners or outside the benchmark. Like a 63/37 split at the moment. Runners are popping up due to either an overpowering trof, or a pumped up northwest Atlantic ridge. The sliders are just a more progressive trof. 

Shouldn't really surprise anyone at this range, but I wouldn't be shocked to see some moves north.

Yeah, I know everyone is spiking footballs, but looking at individual members, this easily could cut and it wouldn’t be surprising at all.

[Kitz Craver]

Best potential yet for a biggie this season. I see no reason why not to discuss…

[EastonSN+]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps looks less amped than 0z

Thanks for this.

Although less amped, happy it does not look like the GFS.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, I know everyone is spiking footballs, but looking at individual members, this easily could cut and it wouldn’t be surprising at all.

Based on 00z suite, it's more like the mean of all the ensembles is not the best forecast, that more likely we'll see something run through SNE or stay outside 40/70.

[UnitedWx]

30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Some of us knew many weeks ago Mariano Rivera was warming up in the pen…

LFG!

2004 Rivera? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, I know everyone is spiking footballs, but looking at individual members, this easily could cut and it wouldn’t be surprising at all.

Being excited about a big signal at d6-d7 is not spiking footballs. Your nauseating… 

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This page .  I see folks have learned very little this year.

Massive caveats apply at a week out. Not exactly a lot of cold air around 

well we basically need BM or southeast of there to get snow in these air masses. Otherwise, the more tucked solutions may be great for interior

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

well we basically need BM or southeast of there to get snow in these air masses. Otherwise, the more tucked solutions may be great for interior

And I think it's just normal tracking going on..I don't see any spiking.

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this.

Although less amped, happy it does not look like the GFS.

Just took a peak. Primary holds on longer on the 6z EPS.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

2004 Rivera? 

Ha. Just the fact while most were bitching about the season and pissing in everyone’s cheerios who remained patient/positive, some continued to to say late Feb into March will have plenty more of chances, with KU potential.

Doesn’t mean it’s a lock for epocity, we’re just in a much better spot to close it out. Rivera could still throw a two broken back singles and we lose…or, he may not get the chance to enter the game lol.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Being excited about a big signal at d6-d7 is not spiking footballs. Your nauseating… 

God is he ever…it never ends with him. There’s been discussion about this potential…nothing more, and yet we still have to listen to his nauseating nonsense.  

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

And I think it's just normal tracking going on..I don't see any spiking.

Yeah I’m not sure where the “spiking the football” narrative is coming from. The storm is still very much a possibility and I think the trends on ensembles have been generally positive the last day or two. That’s all you can really say at day 7. 
 

People are going to discuss threats. It doesn’t mean they pan out. If they always did, we wouldn’t dissect model guidance. We’d just take it at face value.